Daily Coffee News Staff | December 15, 2025
Colombia’s coffee production is projected to ease back from record highs but remain historically strong in the 2025/26 market year (October to September), according to the latest semi-annual coffee report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Bogotá.
Total output is now forecast at 13.8 million 60-kilogram bags of green coffee, all arabica, down about 7% from the 14.8 million bags estimated for 2024/25 but still above recent years.
Favorable weather and aggressive pruning pushed the current crop to the highest level in roughly three decades, though plantations are now showing …
Daily Coffee News Staff | December 15, 2025
Colombia’s coffee production is projected to ease back from record highs but remain historically strong in the 2025/26 market year (October to September), according to the latest semi-annual coffee report from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in Bogotá.
Total output is now forecast at 13.8 million 60-kilogram bags of green coffee, all arabica, down about 7% from the 14.8 million bags estimated for 2024/25 but still above recent years.
Favorable weather and aggressive pruning pushed the current crop to the highest level in roughly three decades, though plantations are now showing signs of fatigue and prolonged rains have hurt flowering.
Exports in 2025/26 are forecast at 12.5 million bags, down from an estimated 13.4 million in 2024/25, while imports are expected to fall to 1 million bags as improved domestic supply and high international prices curb demand for foreign coffee. The United States remains Colombia’s largest buyer, accounting for nearly 40% of exports.
[Note: This is part of an ongoing series of DCN stories that explore USDA FAS country-level coffee reports, which are produced by different authors and field offices around the world.]
Production Still High
FAS Bogotá pegs 2025/26 production at 13.8 million bags, compared to 14.8 million in 2024/25 and 12.76 million in 2023/24. The agency attributes the 2024/25 surge to expanded “drastic pruning,” a weak La Niña, and generally favorable conditions during the late 2024 harvest.
Looking ahead, the report says plantations are entering a more typical down phase in Colombia’s production cycle.
Colombia’s tree stock remains relatively young and increasingly “technified,” according to the report. Colombia’s national federation of coffee growers Fedecafé estimates that about 678,000 hectares are planted with trees that are three to nine years old and reflect modern farming practices. Approximately 155,000 hectares contain trees that are nine years or older.
Roughly 87% of the country’s coffee area is now planted with rust-resistant varieties, and a new cultivar, Castillo 2.0, was released in late 2024 to further improve disease resistance and climate resilience.
Exports React to U.S. Tariffs
Total coffee exports in 2025/26 are forecast at 12.5 million bags, including 11.5 million bags of green coffee plus smaller volumes of roasted and soluble products.
Shipments to the United States climbed to 5.3 million bags in 2024/25 after five straight years of decline. The 10% baseline U.S. tariff introduced in April 2025 briefly raised the cost of Colombian coffee, although a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods between August and November provided Colombia with a competitive advantage for U.S. sales.
The European Union, Canada, Japan, South Korea and China also remain key markets for Colombian arabica. Looking ahead to the enforcement of the European deforestation regulation EUDR — which was recently postponed to December 2026 — Fedecafé is building a geospatial platform to map farms and support traceability, while also looking to expand in newer markets such as China.
Prices, Costs and Consumption
Domestic farmgate prices have climbed sharply with global markets and a weaker peso. Average prices reached a record 3.12 million Colombian pesos (about US$756) per 125-kilogram bag in February 2025, roughly 70% higher than in January 2024, according to Fedecafé data. On the flip side, farm input costs and labor costs remain elevated.
Ending stocks are expected to rise modestly to 966,000 bags in 2025/26, more than double the previous estimate from six months ago.
With about 93% of production shipped abroad and more than half a million families depending on coffee, the FAS underscores Colombia’s role as a crucial arabica supplier that must navigate cyclical production swings and evolving trade dynamics.
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Tags: 2026 Coffee Annuals, Arabica, Brazil, Castillo 2.0, coffee prices, Colombia, Colombian Coffee Growers Federation, EUDR, European Union, FAS Bogotá, Fedecafé, FNC, green coffee, La Niña, United States, USDA FAS