After a prolonged period of slowing growth rates, the economy of the Russian Federation may face the risk of decline by the end of 2025. This is indicated by the updated forecast from the Russian Central Bank.
This is reported by Finway
GDP Dynamics and Changes in Forecasts
According to estimates from the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, in the third quarter of 2025, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% year-on-year. This is significantly lower compared to previous quarters: in the second quarter of 2025, growth was recorded at 1.1%, in the first quarter at 1.4%, and in the fourth quarter of the previous year at as much as 4.5%.
The high figures for the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by “a temporary surge in production in certai…
After a prolonged period of slowing growth rates, the economy of the Russian Federation may face the risk of decline by the end of 2025. This is indicated by the updated forecast from the Russian Central Bank.
This is reported by Finway
GDP Dynamics and Changes in Forecasts
According to estimates from the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia, in the third quarter of 2025, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% year-on-year. This is significantly lower compared to previous quarters: in the second quarter of 2025, growth was recorded at 1.1%, in the first quarter at 1.4%, and in the fourth quarter of the previous year at as much as 4.5%.
The high figures for the fourth quarter of 2024, driven by “a temporary surge in production in certain sectors,” led to the Central Bank revising its forecast. Now, the regulator expects GDP dynamics in the fourth quarter of 2025 to range from minus 0.5% to plus 0.5% year-on-year. Just in July 2025, the Central Bank did not predict a decline, expecting economic growth during this period to be at a level of 0–1%.
Possible First Decline Since Early 2023
If the Central Bank’s forecast comes true, it will mark the first quarterly decline in the Russian economy since January-March 2023, when the country’s GDP decreased by 1.6%. After that, the Russian economy demonstrated only positive dynamics.
The growth in the third quarter of 2025 turned out to be significantly lower than the Central Bank’s previous expectations. Back in August, the regulator had forecasted a year-on-year GDP increase of 1.6%.
The Central Bank of Russia noted that “the overheating of the economy” is gradually decreasing; however, many factors (labor market tensions, persistent inflation rates above 4%, and model calculations) suggest that the overheating may be greater than previously anticipated and may end later than expected.
Thus, despite some slowdown in growth rates, the economy of the Russian Federation remains under the influence of a number of risks, including ongoing labor market tensions and inflationary pressure.