Taipei, Nov. 3 (CNA) The United States and China are moving toward a period of “managed rivalry” as both sides look to stabilize relations without resolving their core differences, Taiwan’s former representative to the U.S. Stanley Kao (高碩泰) said Monday.

During a seminar in Taipei on the changing global geopolitical landscape, Kao likened the situation to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ narrow extra-innings win against the Toronto Blue Jays in Saturday’s Game 7 of the World Series. “It is hard to tell how the contest will end.”

Citing the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in Busan, South Korea, on Thursday, Kao said Washington and Beijing may be entering a “new cold peace,” rather than a “new cold war,” as both sides show a willingness to compromise on minor issues while remaining firm on major ones.

Lien Hsien-ming (連賢明), president of the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, described the outcome of the Xi-Trump talks as a “strategic truce,” saying he expects the conflict to persist despite Trump’s decision to lift the rare earth blockade and China’s agreement to purchase a massive amount of U.S. soybeans.

Lien added that Xi and China appeared better prepared for Trump’s second term than for his first, as evidenced by Beijing’s refusal to yield to the U.S president’s tariff threats in 2025.

Meanwhile, Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁), vice president of the Institute for National Policy Research (INPR), said both Washington and Beijing are in domestic political adjustment periods.

Trump faces a pending Supreme Court ruling on tariffs and the 2026 midterm elections, while Xi has just concluded the Fourth Plenary Session and will oversee planning decisions at next March’s “Two Sessions,” he said.

After five rounds of negotiations, both sides have realized that reciprocal sanctions and high tariffs come with costs and risks too great to bear, Kuo said. “In terms of the economy and trade, they are entering a stage of orderly decoupling.”

Multilateralism’s decline

Alluding to the failure of the East Asia Summit to issue a joint statement on regional security and stability, James W.Y. Wang (王文岳), an associate professor at National Chi Nan University’s Center for Southeast Asian Studies, said such multilateral alliances are expected to be replaced by an increasing number of bilateral partnerships.

Judging from that failure, it can be seen that “this kind of regional security mechanism has already declined,” Wang said, adding that bilateral agreements may gradually replace broader regional and multilateral mechanisms.

Echoing Wang, Kuo said the trend began as early as 2017, when Trump viewed such organizations as ineffective, prompting a reshuffling of international relationships. “These events are less important in their economic significance, but they are gaining ground politically.”

Likewise, INPR President Tien Hung-mao (田弘茂) said Taiwan’s government should adjust its outreach strategy toward Southeast Asia and other regions with more specific goals aligned to its needs in regional security and trade cooperation, “if we have difficulty becoming a member of those organizations.”

Meanwhile, speaking on Taiwan’s position between the U.S. and China, Lien urged the public to be more confident because of the nation’s semiconductor advantage. “No matter which side we choose to align with, it will have a huge impact on the other,” he said.

A seminar on the changing global geopolitical landscape takes place in Taipei Monday, with Institute for National Policy Research (INPR) President Tien Hung-mao (田弘茂, third left) delivering opening remarks, while Vice President Kuo Yu-jen (郭育仁, second right) and Executive Director Wang Hung-jen (王宏仁, left) serve as moderators. CNA photo Nov. 3, 2025