No matter if it’s MACtion or weekday CUSA, Group of Five football is fun to watch. After all, there’s a ton of great G5 programs this year.
Here’s my predictions for upcoming G5 games this Saturday.
Navy vs. Notre Dame Prediction
I predict Notre Dame will win but Navy will cover the 27.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 55.5 total points.
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s rankings this week, where no G5 team was in the top 25, has sparked a national discussion about whether a G5 team should be guaranteed a CFP spot. Even with great records, those teams aren’t ranked highly because of a perceived strength of schedule.
But looking at Notre Dame’s schedule, I’m not really all that impressed.…
No matter if it’s MACtion or weekday CUSA, Group of Five football is fun to watch. After all, there’s a ton of great G5 programs this year.
Here’s my predictions for upcoming G5 games this Saturday.
Navy vs. Notre Dame Prediction
I predict Notre Dame will win but Navy will cover the 27.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 55.5 total points.
The College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s rankings this week, where no G5 team was in the top 25, has sparked a national discussion about whether a G5 team should be guaranteed a CFP spot. Even with great records, those teams aren’t ranked highly because of a perceived strength of schedule.
But looking at Notre Dame’s schedule, I’m not really all that impressed. I’m not saying the Fighting Irish are a bad team by any means. But I think this is a team that Navy can keep pace with – especially considering fellow G5 program Boise State lost just 28-7 against Notre Dame.
Navy’s triple-option offense is one of the best in the country at running the ball. The Midshipmen have rushed for 317.3 yards per game this season. And they have some star players on that side of the ball.
Blake Horvath has thrown for 1,143 yards, seven touchdowns, and five interceptions on a 64% completion rate while rushing for 926 yards and 13 TDs. Alex Tecza has rushed for 523 yards and six scores. Eli Heidenreich leads the team with 575 yards and four TDs on 31 receptions while rushing for 342 yards and three TDs.
Do I think Navy will go on the road and upset the Fighting Irish? No. But I do think the Midshipmen have what it takes to limit the winning margin to 21 or fewer points.
Duke vs. UConn Prediction
I predict UConn will win and cover the 8.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 63.5 total points.
Considering Duke is coming off a huge victory against Clemson – and lost by just nine points in its prior game against Georgia Tech – and the fact that the Blue Devils have to look forward to taking on No. 14-ranked Virginia this week, I think UConn has a great opportunity to pull off an upset.
Whether it’s a low-scoring affair, a high-scoring battle, or somewhere in between, the Huskies have proven they can be competitive with any level of opponent.
The Joe Fagnano-to-Skyler Bell connection has been overwhelming for opposing teams this year. Fagnano has thrown for 2,529 yards, 22 touchdowns, and no interceptions on a 69% completion rate while rushing for two TDs. Bell has caught 74 passes for 994 yards and 11 TDs.
Cam Edwards is pacing UConn with 815 yards and nine touchdowns rushing. Wide receivers John Neider (21 catches for 347 yards and one TD) and Reymello Murphy (23 receptions for 261 yards and three TDs) as well as tight end Juice Vereen (17 catches for 259 yards and four TDs) have made critical plays in the passing game as well.
On the defensive side, linebacker Bryun Parham has been electric. He has a team-high 80 tackles, 9.5 sacks, and three fumble recoveries. Linebacker Oumar Diomande (76 tackles and four sacks), defensive back Malachi McLean (52 tackles and two passes defended), and DB Cam Chadwick (49 tackles, four interceptions, and three passes defended) have helped UConn stay in games.
I don’t expect UConn will win by a blowout by any means. But I do think UConn will manage to keep this game close until the end and will find a way to win at home.
JMU vs. Marshall Prediction
I predict JMU will win but Marshall will cover the 13.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Over 54.5 total points.
This is a clash between two of the most productive offenses in the Sun Belt. The Dukes lead the league with 34.8 points per game and are third with 442.1 yards per game. Marshall, meanwhile, is second in the league in points per game (34.1) and is sixth in yards per game (394.1).
That’s why I think this could be a more high-scoring game than JMU is used to. But I also anticipate the Dukes defense will help them win this game.
JMU is first in the Sun Belt in scoring defense (16.1 PPG allowed), total defense (251.4 YPG allowed), rushing defense (80.3 YPG allowed), passing defense (171.1 YPG allowed), red zone trips allowed (18), opposing third-down conversions (31.8%), and opponent first downs (13.3 per game).
Marshall, meanwhile, is 11th in scoring defense (32.5 PPG allowed) and total defense (418.1 YPG allowed).
That’s why I expect JMU’s stars on offense will go on the road and thrive.
JMU quarterback Alonza Barnett III has completed 62% of his passes for 1,516 yards, 13 touchdowns, and three interceptions while rushing for 364 yards and 10 TDs. Wayne Knight leads the Dukes on the ground with 659 yards to go with five scores while catching 25 passes for 234 yards. Landon Ellis leads the Dukes through the air with 437 yards and five scores on 27 receptions.
And with JMU’s strong defense, led by linebacker Trent Hendrick and safety Jacob Thomas, I believe the Dukes will go on the road and win by about 10 points.
Temple vs. Army Prediction
I predict Army will win and cover the seven-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 45.5 total points.
Army has one of the best ground games in the American – and the country. And that’s bad news for Temple.
The Black Knights are second in the conference, behind only Navy, and are fourth in the FBS with 265.3 rushing yards per game. Quarterback Cale Hellums leads them with 711 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground.
Temple allows the fourth-most rushing yards in the league at 192.2 per game and gives up the most rushing yards per carry at 5.2.
I don’t know if the Owls are a good matchup for Army with that in mind.
And though Army isn’t the most prolific team on offense, the Black Knights have been pretty stout defensively. They allow the third-fewest yards in the American (347 per game) and the third-fewest points (23.1 per game).
They’ve been even better on that side of the ball as the season has gone on. They’ve given up an average of 15.25 points per game in their last four outings.
Temple, meanwhile, is seventh or worse in the conference in scoring offense and defense as well as total offense and defense. The Owls have given up 32 or more points in three of their last four games.
I don’t expect the Black Knights to score that much. But I foresee Army dominating at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, controlling time of possession, and grinding out a 10-point win.
Sam Houston vs. Oregon State Prediction
I predict Oregon State will win but Sam Houston will cover the 20.5-point spread. I also project the game will go Under 52.5 total points.
It’s difficult to find a bright spot for this Sam Houston team. The Bearkats have averaged 16.9 points per game, which is 129th in the FBS, and are 136th in the country in scoring defense while allowing 40.9 points per contest.
The Beavers haven’t exactly been much better. They’re 118th in the nation in scoring offense (20.1 points per game) and 106th in scoring defense (29.9 PPG allowed).
But they’re playing with a newfound energy since their coaching change, and I think that momentum continues in this matchup.
I expect Anthony Hankerson to carry Oregon State to a win here. He rushed for 132 yards and a touchdown against Washington State a week ago, and he leads the Beavers with 803 yards and seven scores on the season.
But the thing is that Sam Houston hasn’t allowed as many games to become true blowouts as one would think. In the Bearkats’ eight losses, only three have been decided by 20 or more points, and one of those was at Texas.
So while I do believe Oregon State will be in control for most of this game, I don’t expect Sam Houston will fall by 21 or more points.