New federal data showed US inflation unexpectedly cooled in November, offering a bit of welcome breathing room for households still feeling high living costs. Several economists cautioned that the figure may not be fully reliable because the long government shutdown disrupted price-data collection, leaving gaps—especially around October—and complicating comparisons. Analysts said clearer confirmation will depend on upcoming releases and additional evidence that the slowdown reflects broader price trends rather than quirks in how and when prices were sampled.

Highlights:

• Missing October: Economists highlighted that there was “almost no October inflation data” because the shutdown paused normal collection, which can ripple into November estimates.
• Black Friday skew: Some analysts warned November sampling leaned heavily toward late-month prices that included Black Friday discounts, which could temporarily pull measured inflation down.
• Salt warnings: One strategist said the report should be taken with “an entire bag” of salt, reflecting unusually high uncertainty tied to the disrupted dataset.
• Skeptical commentary: Commentary referencing economists Dean Baker and Jared Bernstein said the government’s handling of missing data produced “distorted” results and prompted scrutiny of methodology choices.
• Political framing: One outlet emphasized the downside surprise relative to economist expectations and argued some media coverage downplayed the improvement.

We always want to see inflation numbers that are down - Claudia Sahm

Perspectives:

• Claudia Sahm (former Federal Reserve Board economist): She welcomed a downside surprise but stressed the release should be treated cautiously because shutdown-driven disruption left key holes in the data and more information is needed before drawing conclusions. (alternet.org)
• Goldman Sachs (Lindsay Rosner): She urged extra caution, noting the unusual timing of November price collection around Black Friday sales could make inflation look cooler than underlying trends. (alternet.org)
• General economist consensus in coverage: Multiple reports described the November reading as encouraging but potentially distorted because shutdown-related gaps in data collection make month-to-month comparisons less dependable. (allsides.com)
• PJ Media: The outlet framed the CPI result as clearly better than expected and criticized parts of the media for focusing on caveats rather than the improvement. (pjmedia.com)

Sources:

• Inflation cooled in November to 2.7%, but economists say to take it with 'the entire salt shaker' - allsides.com
• Cooking the Books - metafilter.com
• Economists warn of missing data as they urge caution on better-than-expected inflation report - alternet.org
• Inflation Drops 'Unexpectedly' to 2.7% for November. Media Hardest Hit. - pjmedia.com
• November inflation surprise - thehill.com