A new Global Carbon Project assessment projects global CO2 emissions from burning coal, oil and gas will reach about 38.1 billion metric tons in 2025, a record and roughly 1.1% higher than 2024 levels. The group’s 20th annual global carbon cycle analysis, released alongside a 2025 full-year projection, warns that the increase makes keeping warming to 1.5°C effectively out of reach and raises urgency at this week’s COP30 summit. The report notes uneven changes by country — the United States is projected to see a 1.9% rise in emissions while China’s emissions are expected to grow modestly after years of decline tied to heavy renewable investment.

Highlights:

• Report milestone: The assessment is the Global Carbon Project’s 20th annual global carbon cycle analysis and includes a modeled full-year projection for 2025 released in the journal Earth System Science Data.
• Cement included: The emissions tally counts CO2 from burning fossil fuels and from cement manufacture, with cement singled out as one of the largest non-energy contributors to the total.
• COP30 backdrop: The study was published amid negotiators’ talks at COP30 in Brazil, adding pressure on delegates as the report indicates current policies will not keep warming below 1.5°C.
• Renewables vs demand: Despite rapid growth in renewable energy capacity, rising global energy demand has driven increased oil, gas and coal emissions in 2025 projections, underscoring a gap between cleaner supply and overall consumption growth.

We have to have emissions of CO2 declining every single year over the next 20 to 30 years if we want to leave warming below two degrees - Pierre Friedlingstein

Perspectives:

• Global Carbon Project / lead researcher: The annual assessment projects a record in fossil fuel CO2 for 2025 and stresses that sustained year-on-year declines are required to meet long-term temperature goals. (Time)
• China/observers: China’s emissions are projected to rise modestly this year but analysts point to recent declines driven by large investments in renewable energy. (The New York Times)
• United States / policy context: U.S. emissions are projected to increase this year, a trend analysts link in reporting to recent rollbacks of climate initiatives and expanded oil and gas activity. (Time)

Sources:

• CO2 to hit record in 2025, key temperature limit could be reached in 4 years: Study - straitstimes.com
• Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Set to Hit Record High in 2025 - time.com
• Fossil fuel emissions to hit new record in 2025: study - dw.com
• Carbon Dioxide Emissions Head for Another Record in 2025 - allsides.com
• Global fossil fuel emissions to hit new record in 2025: Study predicts - firstpost.com
• Global fossil fuel emissions to hit record high in 2025, study says - france24.com
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions Head for a Record in 2025, Global Carbon Project Reports - nytimes.com