The UK Met Office has issued a decadal forecast suggesting that global average surface temperatures from 2024 to 2026 will stay well above 1.4°C above preindustrial levels, keeping the planet near the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming threshold on a multi‑year basis. The central estimate for 2026 puts the world slightly cooler than the record warmth reached in 2024 but still within the four hottest years since instrumental records began in 1850, largely because of continued greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. Scientists emphasize that these projections describe short‑term climate variability layered on top of long‑term warming, and they do not yet mean the world has permanently breached the 1.5°C target used in international climate policy. While the outlook is sobering, researche...
The UK Met Office has issued a decadal forecast suggesting that global average surface temperatures from 2024 to 2026 will stay well above 1.4°C above preindustrial levels, keeping the planet near the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming threshold on a multi‑year basis. The central estimate for 2026 puts the world slightly cooler than the record warmth reached in 2024 but still within the four hottest years since instrumental records began in 1850, largely because of continued greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels. Scientists emphasize that these projections describe short‑term climate variability layered on top of long‑term warming, and they do not yet mean the world has permanently breached the 1.5°C target used in international climate policy. While the outlook is sobering, researchers note that near‑term forecasts like this help governments, cities and businesses better prepare for heat extremes and accelerate emissions‑cutting strategies informed by up‑to‑date data.
Highlights:
- Forecast methods: The Met Office decadal outlook combines observed ocean conditions, atmospheric composition data and sophisticated climate models to estimate global temperatures over the next few years, allowing scientists to explore how natural variations such as El Niño interact with human‑driven warming.
- Record‑breaking context: The projection places 2026 in a cluster of exceptionally hot years that includes 2024, which the Met Office assessment identifies as the warmest year since 1850, underscoring that recent records are not isolated anomalies but part of a sustained upward trend.
- Short‑term versus long‑term: Researchers distinguish between a temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C level in individual years and the more stringent policy benchmark of keeping long‑term global average warming close to or below that level over several decades, which requires sustained emissions cuts rather than responses to single hot years.
- Planning opportunities: Because multi‑year climate outlooks give advance warning of heightened heat risk, they can guide practical steps such as updating building codes for hotter summers, strengthening health‑heatwave plans, and adjusting energy planning for higher cooling demand in coming seasons.
Perspectives:
- UK Met Office scientists: Met Office researchers describe the coming years as remaining in a "high" temperature regime relative to the late 19th century, driven primarily by continued greenhouse gas emissions rather than short‑lived natural fluctuations. (The Guardian)
- Climate modelers and policy analysts: Specialists quoted in coverage of the forecast stress that near‑term outlooks should motivate faster emissions reductions and adaptation planning, rather than being interpreted as proof that long‑term temperature goals are already out of reach. (The Guardian)