Off-year elections that take place between the presidential and midterm races often garner considerable national attention as politicians, analysts, and the press get down to the business of forecasting how patterns of voter sentiment in a few specific locations might be stretched to fit the framework of the broader American electorate.

But that doesn’t mean there won’t be postelection data and trends to examine closely for national signs and portents. As is often the case, the outcome of the looming statewide elections in Virginia and New Jersey will be interpreted as a referendum on the newly elected president. But Virginia is especially well positioned to serve as an indication of voter views on the political and economic state of the union, as the commonwealth has been so deeply impacted by the second Trump administration’s actions.

Mass federal layoffs have roiled the state economy, as many government workers and contractors live in northern Virginia, their struggles contributing to concerns of regional recession. Virginia has the largest number of federal workers in any state. The ongoing government shutdown may have only exacerbated these economic concerns, as federal workers nationwide have been furloughed or find themselves working without pay.

“What he’s doing now is much more deeply impactful on Virginia, and especially the voter-rich northern Virginia community, than anything he did back in [his first term],” said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University.

Not only will voters be casting their ballot in statewide elections this year, all 100 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates are up for grabs. Democrats are widely expected to expand on their current majority. But the marquee race in Virginia is the gubernatorial contest, where Democrat Abigail Spanberger is facing Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the sitting lieutenant governor. Spanberger is the favorite for the race, benefiting in part from some structural headwinds; with only one exception, the candidate from the party opposite the newly elected president has won in every election since 1977. A Republican is now in the White House, so statistically speaking, a Democrat is likely to be sitting in the Virginia governor’s mansion next year.

Trump has been deeply unpopular in Virginia for a decade, losing the state in three consecutive elections. Democrats made massive gains on the state level in the 2017 and 2019 elections. When Republican Glenn Youngkin was elected in the 2021 gubernatorial election, it was after Trump had left office and may have no longer been considered a threat by Virginia voters. By largely focusing her campaign on economic issues, Spanberger has cast Trump as a specific threat to Virginia, highlighting both cuts to the federal workforce and, more recently, the potential impact of the shutdown.

“When we win, it’s repudiation of the policies that are harming Virginia, whether it’s the shutdown, DOGE, or tariffs,” Spanberger told the Associated Press. “Like one guy, like, is single-handedly crushing Virginia soybean farmers, like one guy is single-handedly raising input costs for fertilizer and for farm equipment.”

Recent polling by The Washington Post and the Schar School found that only 1 percent of voters listed the shutdown as their top priority in the election, as compared to 18 percent who listed economic issues, but this does not mean the shutdown is not on Virginians’ minds, said Rozell.

“The complicating nuance there is that concern over the economy is driven in part by the government shutdown, but when given a list of options, the economy is the catchall for people’s concerns,” he said. “So the government shutdown is having an impact on people’s perceptions, on the strength of the regional economy and where things are going.”

Federal workers aren’t only concentrated in northern Virginia near Washington, D.C. The Hampton Roads community in the southern part of the state, where shipyards are the major economic driver and the Navy is a key employer, has also felt the impact of Trump’s civil service policies. That area is a key bellwether in statewide elections, and several of the most competitive state House seats are in the Hampton, Norfolk, and Virginia Beach communities.

“In a world where so much of politics is theoretical … this shutdown is real world, and puts the consequences directly on a lot of families in Virginia,” said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist with experience with Virginia campaigns. “Shutdowns aren’t politics in Virginia; shutdowns are paychecks.”

Other October news items may influence how voters cast their ballot, although their impact is likely to be smaller. The Democratic attorney general candidate, Jay Jones, has been dented by a scandal surrounding his sending of violent texts a decade ago. Polling shows that the contest with the current sitting attorney general, Republican Jason Miyares, has tightened considerably in recent weeks; some recent polls even have Miyares pulling ahead. But although Spanberger’s lead over Earle-Sears has narrowed, she does not seem to have been significantly tainted by the Jones scandal, which she has largely avoided commenting on except to condemn his prior language.

J. Miles Coleman, associate editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said that Jones’s best bet to maintain voter support would be to continue to nationalize the race. By condemning Jones, Trump and other Republicans may have ironically strengthened his support among skeptical voters, Coleman continued.

“If I’m a soft Spanberger voter who now [thinks], ‘I might not like Jones’s texts, but I don’t know what to do, do I leave my ballot blank?’—if I see Trump and JD Vance and Mike Johnson and all these national Republicans piling on Jones like they did, [I’d think] ‘OK, well, you know I don’t like Jones’s texts, but I really don’t like these guys,’” said Coleman.

Ultimately, Coleman predicts, the success of Jones and Democratic lieutenant governor candidate Ghazala Hashmi will be dependent on the margin by which Spanberger wins. Moreover, Democrats are considered likely to expand upon their current narrow majority in the state House, an assumption aided by the fact that Democratic candidates are as a whole significantly outraising and outspending their Republican counterparts. In House District 21, which was one of the closest races in 2023 and is still one of the most competitive seats in the state, the Democratic incumbent has raised more than $1 million. His Republican challenger has raised around $21,000.

“If Republicans are giving up on the decisive race from last time, what does that say about their overall prospects?” said Coleman.

Another dramatic development in Virginia politics came earlier in October when Democratic lawmakers, who hold a narrow majority in the state legislature, announced that they would begin redistricting efforts. If successful, this could make Virginia one of the only Democratic-led states to redraw its congressional maps before the 2026 midterm elections.

In theory, this could mobilize Democratic voters who want to ensure that their legislature has a majority and a governor who is willing to take that action as a counterbalance to states with Republican legislatures that are working to redraw congressional maps in their own favor. (For her part, Spanberger has largely sidestepped the question.) In practice, however, it is unlikely to be as significant a factor in voter decision-making as more concrete economic concerns.

But Republican candidates who wish to cry foul play over potential gerrymandering don’t have much lead time. Carolyn Fidder, a left-leaning state elections expert, noted that there was not sufficient time for Republican candidates to work Democratic redistricting efforts into political advertisements. Moreover, redrawing congressional maps in Virginia would require an amendment to the state constitution approved by voters.

“Voters will ultimately be the decision-makers on whether or not Virginia is going to help keep a level playing field in terms of congressional elections next year. So it is an interesting wrinkle, but in terms of its actual impact on the election, I suspect it will be negligible,” said Fiddler.

Ultimately, national dynamics will likely be the tipping point in this year’s Virginia elections. Now that Trump has returned to the White House, Virginians may once again be motivated by their antipathy to him and his policies when casting their ballot.

“Democrats, yet again, are mobilizing to make their statement in opposition to what’s happening in Washington, and by virtue of the coincidence of the calendar that Virginia has these off–election year cycles, this is a place where people can make a statement,” said Rozell.