Fear Drives the AI ‘Cold War’ Between America and China (msn.com)

Posted by EditorDavid on Saturday November 15, 2025 @06:22PM from the long-march dept.

A new “cold war” between America and China is “pushing leaders to sideline concerns about the dangers of powerful AI models,” reports the Wall Street Journal, “including the spread of disinformation and other harmful content, and the development of superintelligent AI systems misaligned with human values...”

“Both countries are driven as much by fear as by hope of progress. “ *In Washington and Silicon Valley, warnings abound that China’s “authoritarian AI,” left unchecked, will erode American tech supremacy. Beijing is gripped by the conviction that a failure to keep pace in AI will make it easier for the U.S. to cut short China’s resurgence as a global power. Both countries believe market share for their companies across the world is up for grabs — and with it, the potential to influence large swaths of the global population.

The U.S. still has a clear lead, producing the most powerful AI models. China can’t match it in advanced chips and has no answer for the financial firepower of private American investors, who funded AI startups to the tune of $104 billion in the first half of 2025, and are gearing up for more. But it has a massive population of capable engineers, lower costs and a state-led development model that often moves faster than the U.S., all of which Beijing is working to harness to tip the contest in its direction. A new “whole of society” campaign looks to accelerate the construction of computing clusters in areas like Inner Mongolia, where vast solar and wind farms provide plentiful cheap energy, and connect hundreds of data centers to create a shared compute pool — some describe it as a “national cloud” — by 2028. China is also funneling hundreds of billions of dollars into its power grid to support AI training and adoption...

“Our lead is probably in the ‘months but not years’ realm,” said Chris McGuire, who helped design U.S. export controls on AI chips while serving on the National Security Council under the Biden administration. Chinese AI models currently rank at or near the top in every task from coding to video generation, with the exception of search, according to Chatbot Arena, a popular crowdsourced ranking platform. China’s manufacturing sector, meanwhile, is rocketing past the U.S. in bringing AI into the physical world through robotaxis, autonomous drones and humanoid robots. Given China’s progress, McGuire said, the U.S. is “very lucky” to have its advantage in chips...

If AI surpasses human intelligence and acquires the ability to improve itself, it could confer unshakable scientific, economic and military superiority on the country that controls it. Short of that, AI’s ability to automate tedious tasks and process vast amounts of data quickly promises to supercharge everything from cancer diagnoses to missile defense. With so much at stake, hacking and cyber espionage are likely to get worse, as AI gives hackers more powerful tools, while increasing incentives for state-backed groups to try to steal AI-related intellectual property. As distrust grows, Washington and Beijing will also find it hard, if not impossible, to cooperate in areas like preventing extremist groups from using AI in destructive ways, such as building bioweapons. “The costs of the AI Cold War are already high and will go much higher,” said Paul Triolo, a former U.S. government analyst and current technology policy lead at business consulting firm DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group. “A U.S.-China AI arms race becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, with neither side able to trust that the other would observe any restrictions on advanced AI capability development....”

The article includes an interesting observation from Helen Toner, director of strategy for Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology and a former OpenAI board member. Toner points out “We don’t actually know” if boosting computing power with better chips will continue producing more-powerful AI models.

So “If performance plateaus,” the Journal writes, “despite all the spending by OpenAI and others — a growing concern in Silicon Valley — China has a chance to compete.”