Our aviation system is under serious stress at the moment. The record-long government shutdown is causing an increase in the number of sick calls among air traffic controllers, and our system has very little slack in the first place.

The FAA is also requiring airlines to cancel a certain percentage of flights, and that’s intended to help with operational reliability and staffing shortages. So, how is that all working out?

Flight delays & cancelations keep increasing

At the moment, we’re starting to see a real dip in operational reliability among US airlines. Just to look at some of the data for flight cancellations and delays, here’s how the four biggest US carriers did on Friday, November 7, 2025:

• American canceled 5% of flights, delayed 20% of flights
• Delta canceled 4% of flights, delayed 17% of flights
• Southwest canceled 3% of flights, delayed 30% of flights
• United canceled 4% of flights, delayed 27% of flights

Meanwhile here’s how they did on Saturday, November 8, 2025:

• American canceled 7% of flights, delayed 32% of flights
• Delta canceled 10% of flights, delayed 32% of flights
• Southwest canceled 4% of flights, delayed 26% of flights
• United canceled 6% of flights, delayed 31% of flights

As you can see, between flight delays and cancellations, it’s very hard to fly reliably. Also keep in mind that Saturday is the day that often has a little more slack in the schedule, so the fact that things got materially worse going from Friday to Saturday isn’t good news.

It’s worth keeping an eye on the FAA’s operations plan advisory, and seeing all the airports that are impacted by staffing triggers, etc. The impacts will go way beyond that, though, given the domino effect of irregular operations, and how hard it can be for airlines to recover when there’s widespread unreliability.

Delta seems to be struggling the most with reliability

I wouldn’t want to be flying in the coming days

It sure seems to me like things will get worse before they get better, so I can’t imagine that the coming days will be looking any better than they do now (and likely even worse). This all raises two points.

First of all, on some level it sure feels like air traffic controllers essentially have the blessing of the Transportation Secretary to not show up at work next week. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy had “hinted” that our airspace may close next week, which is a prediction we’ve never seen a Transportation Secretary make. That almost seems like a “wink wink, nudge nudge” to controllers to not show up to work.

Second, while we know that airline operational reliability is what has the ability to end the shutdown in theory (it’s what ended the 2019 shutdown), we’re at such a standstill politically that it’s hard to figure out which side would even compromise.

Virtually everyone agrees the shutdown should end, but there’s zero ability to compromise to actually make that happen. It seems like the Trump administration is hoping that widespread operational issues will cause the Democrats to cave, but it doesn’t seem likely that things will play out that way, without some compromise.

On Friday, Democrats made a proposal to reopen the government with a “clean” continuing resolution, plus a one-year extension of expiring Affordable Care Act subsidies. Healthcare is a sticking point for Democrats, though Republicans aren’t down for negotiating on that front, it seems. So that’s where we’re at…

I imagine the coming days will be rough

Bottom line

We’re currently seeing a material uptick in flight delays and cancellations in the United States, especially as we’ve gone from Friday to Saturday. With the uptick in staffing triggers, I imagine that Sunday and Monday will be really rough as well.

Challenges with our aviation system ended the last government shutdown, though politically, this one might not be quite as easy to end. If you’re flying in the coming days, good luck, and pack your patience!

How do you see this situation playing out in the coming days?