Six months into President Donald Trump’s renewed trade wars, partial results are in — and they’re probably not the ones Washington hoped for.

Rather than consolidating U.S. economic power, Trump’s tariff policy appears to be accelerating a globe shift toward a trading system where America is just one market among many. Ironically or no, the fresh Chinese data suggesting this shift come as Trump once again threatens China with higher tariffs.

Surge in Chinese exports shows adaptation

China’s exports surged 8.3% in September, their fastest pace in months, even as shipments to the U.S. fell 27%. So, far from being crippled by tariffs, Beijing appears to be quietly rerouting its economy around them. Europe, Southeast Asia, and the countries across the global south have largely picked up the slack. Exports to the E.U. rose more than 14%, to ASEAN nations nearly 16%, and to Africa an impressive 56% (although Africa still represents a small fraction of China’s total exports).

That math is more or less simple: While direct shipments to the U.S. now make up barely 10% of China’s total exports, trade with the rest of the world is booming. Even just two or three years ago, the U.S. claimed at least a quarter of Chinese exports.

Why does this matter so much? Washington’s power in a trade war largely comes from its ability to hurt China’s export machine by cutting off access to the vast base of U.S. consumers. But that power only works if the U.S. remains an un-ignorable, indispensable buyer.

When China can offset a 27% drop in U.S. sales with double-digit growth elsewhere, it shows the U.S. market is no longer as critical to Chinese growth as it once was. That diversification weakens the impact of tariffs, as well as other trade-war weapons like sanctions or boycotts, because China now has alternative buyers and more routes to market. Tariffs may still sting, but they can’t force concessions the way they might have just a few years ago.

Evidence of a structural realignment?

That loss of status as the key buyer points to a phenomenon both larger and longer term: a structural realignment of global supply chains that leaves the U.S. increasingly isolated. Goods once destined for Los Angeles are now moving through Vietnam, Malaysia, and Mexico before reaching their end buyers, eroding Washington’s reach as well as making tariffs harder to enforce.

Supply chains continue to be rebuilt inside and outside China — investments in factories, logistics, and relationships that are difficult and expensive to unwind. Beijing, for its part, has been reinforcing the shift through infrastructure spending and trade agreements that further bind this new network together.

The picture that emerges is one of a China no longer just working around U.S. tariffs, but building a trade architecture designed to both circumvent and outlast them. You might say the workaround is becoming the plan. Meanwhile, newer Chinese export controls on rare-earth materials and technologies are reminders that the world’s manufacturing superpower still has a considerable grasp on many critical inputs.

At the same time, China’s imports, up 7.4% last month, hint at a simmering rebound in Chinese domestic demand, which potentially blunts another of the White House’s more useful pressure points. If the domestic Chinese economy can recover on its own terms, that would also signal a loss of U.S. power.

Too soon to declare a winner

Still, it’s far too soon to declare victory for China or defeat for Washington. Trade wars don’t usually wrap up with neat denouements. China’s surge in exports shows significant strength and adaptability, but its domestic economy remains somewhat fragile, and much of its diversification likely still depends on U.S. consumers, if at a remove of one or two steps.

The U.S., for its part, still controls a large part of the world’s financial system — and of course, much of the world’s most advanced technology. In a global economy, wins tend to be temporary, while losses tend to be reversible. Perhaps the only safe prediction is that the future won’t unfold exactly how we think it will.

📬 Sign up for the Daily Brief