Crypto-Currencies
Bitcoin, Ethereum and co (crypto-coins) have arrived in the mainstream - everybody and their mother has heard about it, but what does it all mean?
Snowball or the Future of Money
it is a snowball (just people speculating / zero sum: every profit made equals someone else losing)
everybody holding now will eventually cash out (unless bitcoin becomes a global currency)
“Long-term holders (LTHs) now control 14.7 million BTC, 74% of the circulating supply, signaling that holding BTC has become the prevailing strategy in a maturing market.” - (2)
vs
it is a genuine new monetary system an…
Crypto-Currencies
Bitcoin, Ethereum and co (crypto-coins) have arrived in the mainstream - everybody and their mother has heard about it, but what does it all mean?
Snowball or the Future of Money
it is a snowball (just people speculating / zero sum: every profit made equals someone else losing)
everybody holding now will eventually cash out (unless bitcoin becomes a global currency)
“Long-term holders (LTHs) now control 14.7 million BTC, 74% of the circulating supply, signaling that holding BTC has become the prevailing strategy in a maturing market.” - (2)
vs
it is a genuine new monetary system and people will not eventually cash out (eval how much it is used as a currency in every day life)
The Reality Check
Most evidence suggests it’s primarily the first, with elements of the second:
- Overwhelmingly held for speculation (70-90% of Bitcoin hasn’t moved in years)
- Minimal retail payment adoption after 15 years
- High volatility makes it poor currency
- Some legitimate use: international transactions, circumventing capital controls
- Stablecoins show more actual payment utility than Bitcoin
The “genuine monetary system” argument requires everyday adoption that hasn’t materialized. Even crypto advocates increasingly frame it as “store of value” rather than currency - which is admitting it’s speculative asset holding.
Conclusion
The technology behind Bitcoin (blockchain) is legit and might lead us to a decentralized global monetary system but it does not look like Bitcoin will be this - it is a speculative asset. Stable coins will more likely fill the role of a true digital world currency.