Summary
- ICF International faces headwinds from declining federal contracts, a prolonged government shutdown, and weak guidance, keeping the stock under pressure.
- Commercial revenue, especially from electrification services for data centers, grew 20.9% year-over-year, but cannot offset federal contract losses yet.
- Despite resilient margins and strong free cash flow, Q3 FY 2025 saw a double miss, with revenue and outlook both disappointing.
- Maintain a ‘Hold’ rating on ICFI, with a trimmed price target in the low-$80s, awaiting a catalyst like major Fathom AI contract wins.
Stockyme/iStock via Getty Images
If Uncle Sam’s footing your tab, you better pray the tide’s on your side. And, in the …
Summary
- ICF International faces headwinds from declining federal contracts, a prolonged government shutdown, and weak guidance, keeping the stock under pressure.
- Commercial revenue, especially from electrification services for data centers, grew 20.9% year-over-year, but cannot offset federal contract losses yet.
- Despite resilient margins and strong free cash flow, Q3 FY 2025 saw a double miss, with revenue and outlook both disappointing.
- Maintain a ‘Hold’ rating on ICFI, with a trimmed price target in the low-$80s, awaiting a catalyst like major Fathom AI contract wins.
Stockyme/iStock via Getty Images
If Uncle Sam’s footing your tab, you better pray the tide’s on your side. And, in the case of ICF International (ICFI), the Trump administration is proving to be a big, beautiful headwind.
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