It’s officially time for MLB fans to become familiar with the name Munetaka Murakami.

The Yakult Swallows third baseman is set to be posted for all 30 MLB clubs at 8 a.m. ET on Saturday and will have 45 days to woo a player with the kind of raw power that hasn’t been seen in Nippon Professional Baseball since Shohei Ohtani.

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At only 25 years old, he seems likely to get a contract in the nine figures. Players rarely become MLB free agents at that age and teams will pay a premium for those prime years if they think his success will translate to the big leagues. Yoshinobu Yamamoto came over at the same age and got $325 million, which has certainly worked out for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

However, there are some things you should know about Murakami before you anoint him as MLB’s next Japanese superstar.

Munetaka Murakami has loomed as a potential MLB star for years

Murakami was a name to know in Japan before his first professional at-bat, joining the Swallows as their first pick of the 2017 NPB Draft and quickly establishing himself as a dangerous slugger as a teenager.

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The MLB hype started building when he won Central League MVP in 2021 at 21 years old, then went into overdrive when he posted one of the greatest seasons in NPB history in 2022. He won the Triple Crown that season while hitting .318/.458/.710 with 56 home runs, breaking the legendary Sadaharu Oh’s 58-year-old NPB record for most homers by a native player.

The World Baseball Classic was very well-timed for him, as American fans got to know him as the big Japanese bat to complement Japan’s elite rotation.

Since then, Murakami has continued to hit homers, just not at the rate of 2022. He dealt with a couple down years before surging back in 2025 in a season limited by injury, hitting .286/.392/.659, with 24 homers in 220 at-bats.

You can be certain about one thing with Murakami. If he puts the bat on the ball, he’s going to do damage. Of course, it has never been harder to put the bat on the ball than it is right now in MLB.

Munetaka Murakami might be the biggest X-factor of the MLB offseason. (Photo by Mary DeCicco/WBCI/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

(Mary DeCicco via Getty Images)

Munetaka Murakami’s hitting has some major red flags

Since the arrival of Hideo Nomo, Japanese pitchers have presented an opportunity with much less risk to MLB suitors than Japanese hitters.

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In the case of pitching, the scouting is relatively straightforward. Yamamoto had an interestingly shaped fastball in the mid-90s and a demon splitter that headlined a deep six-pitch arsenal. The Dodgers had good reason to believe that would translate into MLB success, just like many other pitchers before him.

Hitters, however, are by nature reactive and much more defined by their environment from a scouting perspective, especially in the case of sluggers like Murakami. The list of power-focused Japanese hitters who turned out well in MLB is basically Shohei Ohtani (a special case himself, obviously), Hideki Matsui and, so far, Seiya Suzuki.

You just don’t know how a hitter is going to respond to the increased velocity of MLB, and it’s not encouraging that Murakami already had some pretty real swing-and-miss concerns, as Fangraphs laid out:

His contact rate tanks against fastballs 93 mph and above (just 63% since 2022) and, more recently, Murakami’s contact rates versus secondary pitches have also plummeted. In 2025, Murakami had just a 51% contact rate against all secondary pitch types combined, much lower than any consistent, impact big league hitter. Contrast that with 2022-2023 Murakami, when his contact rate was 62% — not great, but better than 2025 by a meaningful margin.

For reference, James Wood, this year’s MLB strikeouts leader, had a 57.3% contact rate on secondary pitches in 2025.

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We can put this another way. This year, Murakami struck out 41.7% of the time against fastballs faster than 93 mph, which is “Joey Gallo at his nadir” territory. Of the 390,173 fastballs thrown in MLB this year, 62.8% of them were at least 93 mph, per Baseball Savant.

That 2022 season made Murakami a name to know, but that luster has faded in the years since as Murakami has struggled to put the bat on the ball. He managed to cut down his strikeout rate to a career-low 20.9% in 2022, but that number has sat at 28.6% in the three seasons since.

That’s a concern when most Japanese hitters see a significant bump in strikeout rate when arriving in the United States. Suzuki went from 16.5% with the Hiroshima Carp in 2021 to 24.7% with the Chicago Cubs in 2022. Masataka Yoshida went from 8.1% in 2022 to 14% in 2023. Shogo Akiyama went from 18.6% in 2019 to 21.9% in 2020.

On the plus side, Ohtani went from 27.3% in 2017 to only 27.9% in 2018. But that’s Shohei Ohtani.

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From the experts at Yahoo Sports

If Murakami sees even a 5% increase from his 28.6% strikeout rate in 2025, we’re talking about a player with a higher propensity for whiffs than any qualified batter in the majors last season. It’s very possible to succeed with a high strikeout rate — Wood, Mike Trout, Riley Greene and Eugenio Suárez were all in the top 10 this year and were still well above-average hitters — but it removes the room for error. You either hit home runs or become unplayable.

Injuries could be playing a role in these concerning numbers. He sustained a fractured toe in 2024, underwent offseason elbow surgery and then missed a large chunk of 2025 due to an oblique injury. He might be better if healthy, though sustaining three different injuries in a calendar year is rarely a net positive.

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Who is actually a fit for Munetaka Murakami? (No, not the Dodgers)

There are also some very real questions about Murakami’s glove at third base. According to Fangraphs, he “isn’t a very rangy or handsy defender, and his arm strength barely passes at third.”

A much better fit for his skillset is first base, which significantly lowers his value and would likely take the Dodgers out of the running considering they are already very set at first base and designated hitter (not to mention they just picked up third baseman Max Muncy’s $10 million option for 2026). So unlike some past Japanese stars to hit the market in recent years, the Dodgers are far from inevitable.

Add all of that up and you have a player with extremely high upside, but a floor that could make a nine-figure deal a complete disaster. His list of potential suitors is basically going to be teams that are willing to spend big, willing to stomach risk and likely prepared to accept him as a first baseman.

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What teams fit that description? A few come to mind.

The San Diego Padres have first base very open with Luis Arraez hitting free agency this offseason, and no team has been more committed to making offseason splashes in the past half decade. However, they are also facing some massively uncomfortable questions about their rotation and will likely need to invest there too if they want any hope in 2026.

The Boston Red Sox traded away Rafael Devers, another third baseman inevitably bound for first base, and might be willing to jump on that ride again with Alex Bregman hitting free agency, though Triston Casas is also coming back.

Incidentally, you could do worse than Devers’ 2025 season as a reasonably good comparison for Murakami’s skillset.

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The New York Mets could be similarly interested, especially if Pete Alonso walks. Same with the Seattle Mariners as both Suárez and first baseman Josh Naylor hit free agency. And you probably shouldn’t rule out the New York Yankees after a season with Paul Goldschmidt, Ben Rice and Ryan McMahon as the answers in the corner infield.

The good news for Murakami is quite a few contenders need help at either first or third base. His people might be able to get a bidding war started, but every team will have reason to be wary of paying him like he’s already a star in MLB. You could be getting a great slugger in the prime of his career. You could also get a three-true-outcomes merchant limited to the least valuable position in the field.

MLB teams are aware of all this. Any club bidding for him will have pored through data even deeper than what’s publicly available, and will act accordingly. Even with his rare flags, Murakami’s power presents enormous upside and there are sure to be some teams who think they can tweak him enough that he strikes out at a Muncy or Devers level and not a Gallo level.

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It’s going to be an interesting free agency, and an interesting MLB career.