Countries around the world are facing worsening heatwaves, hurricanes, droughts and floods. If current trends continue, governments need to prepare for a much hotter world with a predicted increase in global temperatures of at least 2°C, possibly up to 3°C.

Yet most adaptation action does not go far enough to manage these effects of climate change.

I am a researcher working on tracking progress on adaptation and author of Sink or Swim, a new book that explores the hard choices ahead to adapt to climate change. Adaptation measures aim to reduce the risks from climate change by, for example, building defences to protect from flooding or upgrading road surfaces to manage higher temperatures. These measures differ around the world.

Bangladesh: building early warning systems

With its low-lying coastal land, Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. It is also a global leader in adaptation. For example, the government set up early warning systems that help it spot cyclones much earlier and communicate this information to local groups.

This has dramatically reduced deaths. However, as the effects of climate change escalate, current approaches to adaptation will probably not be enough, with Bangladesh facing large-scale displacement due to sea-level rise, river flooding and extreme heat.

Tuvalu: reclaiming land and opportunities

Tuvalu, an island nation in the Pacific, faces sea-level rise, increased flooding and the salination of water supplies. The government is investing in land reclamation to keep some of the low-lying land above the water.

They have also signed a migration agreement with neighbouring Australia, although the Tuvaluan government has recently repeated that they do not plan to leave the island. But the slow progress on emission reductions puts them at risk of severe flooding making life increasingly difficult.

The island of Tuvalu in the south Pacific. Romaine W/Shutterstock

UK: independent monitoring but slow progress

The UK has an independent body (the Climate Change Committee) that reports to the government on progress. Its latest report found that implementation of adaptation was inadequate.

One area where this is significant is food security: over half of the UK’s best agricultural land is at risk of flooding and this will increase by 2050. The UK is also vulnerable to climate-related supply chain disruptions on food imports. Although the UK has the institutions in place, the action on adaptation is still far less than is needed.

Kenya: putting people at the centre

Some countries, such as Kenya, have developed channels to devolve decisions to local committees that can allocate money to adaptation projects that meet their priorities. Allowing local people to prioritise what is most important to them is hard to do, but is a key way of making adaptation relevant to people’s lives.

But not all impacts of climate change can be managed through local action alone. To manage impacts past 2 degrees people may need support with new approaches. For example, shifting to new crop varieties or transitioning away from agriculture.

Australia: high costs and military support

Australia is at risk from flooding, extreme heat and bushfires. The Climate Council estimate that one in every 25 properties will be at high risk of disasters and uninsurable by 2030, most of these for flooding of rivers.

As well as the high costs of disasters, Australia has also deployed its defence force to respond. Some argue this spreads them too thin, meaning they can’t focus on their core job of defence. Australia just released a national adaptation plan and this makes clear that the future might involve climate-related relocation and agricultural producers needing to move.

Australian bushfires are fuelled by wind and extreme heat. Toa55/Shutterstock

Sink or swim?

Countries are making important progress on adaptation by installing early warning systems and setting up the institutions needed to channel money to local people and to monitor national progress. Bangladesh, Tuvalu and Kenya are leading the way. But even in these places, most adaptation action does not go far enough to manage the escalating impacts coming our way.

The world needs to stop burning fossil fuels. This is the only way to stop further damage and make it possible to adapt. While we are doing what we can to limit any further warming, nations also need to plan for the future we are currently heading towards.

Countries need a new approach to adaptation that goes beyond tweaking current institutions and practices to one that helps people imagine and create new futures where they can thrive, even in 2-3°C warming. This will mean big shifts in how people earn a living, the role of the military, where people live, and where and how we grow food. It is only by facing up to this new reality, that we will find a way to “swim” in the climate-changed world.

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