Emily Peck reports “22 states are in recession or close to it, new analysis finds” at Axios: “Twenty-two states are either in a recession or on the precipice of a downturn, according to an intriguing analysis from Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics…**Why it matters: **The states in contraction are spread around the country — from Washington to Virginia to Maine — and make up about a third of overall GDP…Their problems are driven largely by a mix of slowing immigration, increasing tariffs and federal job cuts, Zandi argues…The analysis is based on Zandi’s calculation of where things stood in the economy at the end of August — perhaps more useful now, as more data measures go dark with the federal government shut down…**How it works: **He created an index looking at state-level jobs data, as well as other inputs, including modeled industrial production, personal income and housing starts…The idea was to mimic what the eight-member National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee does when it determines if the economy is in a recession…While employment is the most important indicator, it is only one of many, Zandi tells Axios…**Between the lines: **The states that received a negative index ranking landed in the recession bucket; the rest are either still expanding or “treading water.”…For those categories, Zandi says he ultimately made some judgment calls after looking at more inputs, including credit card delinquency rates, credit scores, port activity and migration.” Read more here.

Google “Zach Bryan,” and you will find lots of articles about thin-skinned Trump Administration officials blasting him for his hit song, “Bad News,” which criticizes ICE for immigration raids. As Ashleigh Fields reports at The Hill, “Grammy-winning country star Zach Bryan posted a tease for his new song“Bad News” on Instagram, featuring lines that hint at criticism for the rise in immigration raids across the country…Bryan uploaded a snippet that references Immigration Customs and Enforcement (ICE) on Sunday with the caption, “the fading of the red white and blue.”…In the clip, he sings, “ICE is gonna come bust down your door. Try to build a house, no one builds no more…While a few shared outrage over the song, others commended Bryan for speaking out against raids.” Chris Willman adds at Variety, ““To see how much shit it stirred up makes me not only embarrassed but kind of scared,” wrote the Navy veteran, who has claimed in the past that he does not stand on either side of the political divide, and is trying to reiterate that now in the face of a firestorm. “Left wing or right wing we’re all one bird and American. To be clear I’m on neither of these radical sides,” he said..This song is about how much I love this country and everyone in it more than anything. When you hear the rest of the song, you will understand the full context that hits on both sides of the aisle. Everyone using this now as a weapon is only proving how devastatingly divided we all are. We need to find our way back.”

In “Donald Trump’s latest authoritarian moves signal weakness, not strength,” at The Contrarian, Norman Eisen writes, “The size, number, and geographic distribution of protests against the Trump regime in 2025 have been off the charts. We have not seen anything like it in decades…Now, we will have the second iteration of the* No Kings *protests on Saturday, Oct. 18. The *No Kings *protests in June saw a massive coast-to-coast turnout, driven by Trump’s initial National Guard and military deployments in Los Angeles. With Trump’s planned deployments in Portland and Chicago and the deployment in Memphis that started Friday, expect millions of Americans to show up, stand up, and speak out…Political scientist Erica Chenoweth famously found that when 3.5% of the populationstands against a tyrannical regime, it cannot continue (Contrarian Editor-in-Chief Jen Rubin argues it would take much less). We are well on our way to that number of peaceful, lawful protesters…But his obstacles are deeper than the courts. As readers of this column know,most backsliding democracies make U-turns. The Trump regime is facing mounting opposition in all of the main dimensions that determine whether autocracy becomes permanently entrenched or whether democracy is poised to make a comeback…I don’t want to sugarcoat the tremendous damage Trump is doing domestically and internationally and the lives that are being destroyed and even lost as a result. And not every backsliding democracy makes a U-turn. But when you look objectively at the landscape, there are ample reasons to believe Trump is not succeeding in his dictatorial ambitions. That goes well beyond the challenges that he is facing in court.”

From Adam Carlson’s post at x.com: “In each of the 6 publicly released national polls asking voters who they’d blame for a government shutdown, Republicans get more of the blame by double digit margins. The avg shows Rs get more of the blame by ~15 pts Trump/Congressional Rs — 45.0% Congressional Ds — 29.7%.”