Jordan is a dependable U.S. ally in a region where reliability is scarce. Jordan promotes religious tolerance, hosts U.S. forces, and cares for hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees. It punches well above its weight in terms of geopolitical role.

Its economy, however, leaves something to be desired.

Ask any Jordanian how the economy is going, and you will hear the word “zift” — an Arabic slang expression that means “crap.” It is a bitter shorthand for high inflation, low growth, and heavy taxes. As Jordan’s largest donor and strategic partner, the U.S. has the tools to help reformers in Jordan seize opportunities and shift the country’s economic trajectory.

Jordan’s economy has been stagnant for more than a decade. With population growth fueled by the Syrian refugee crisis, per capita incomes are now lower than before the 2008 global financial crisis. Unemployment remains high at 21 percent, but even that figure understates the problem, because most Jordanians have stopped looking for work. Labor force participation is just 33 percent — among the world’s five lowest rates. Female participation is just 14 percent, less than half of Saudi Arabia’s rate, even though Jordanian women are more educated than Jordanian men.

Foreign investment is essential to generate jobs. But paradoxically, many of Jordan’s most strategically important sectors remain formally closed to foreign direct investment. Wholesale, retail, distribution, import and export services, and transportation all remain restricted. A ministerial-level investment committee can approve exceptions, but that uncertainty scares off most investors. This contradicts the Royal Hashemite Court’s own economic modernization vision, which identifies investment into the transport and logistics sectors as central to Jordan’s growth.

The contradiction is deliberate. Key sectors, especially trucking, are politically sensitive and tightly protected. Tribes in the Mafraq and Ma’an governates dominate trucking licenses, routes, and hiring — occasionally enforcing control through roadblocks, protests, or even the threat of violence. Liberalization carries security risks, but it could also boost competitiveness and cut costs across the economy.

The good news is that Jordan has options to generate growth and jobs — if its leaders can muster political courage and U.S. support.

One thing Jordan should do is quickly expand its natural gas pipeline network to industrial zones. Clean and relatively cheap natural gas piped in from the eastern Mediterranean can replace dirty and expensive liquified petroleum gas trucked in from Iraq. The U.S. can profitably finance this expansion, which will lower industrial costs across Jordan’s economy.

Jordan can also increase its power exports to Iraq. With U.S. backing, Jordan recently completed a powerful 400-kV transmission line to serve its eastern neighbor.

As a U.S. diplomat, I led American efforts, including the financial support, to make this happen. The hard part — acquiring the land and building towers in Al-Anbar Province in Iraq — is over. With cable upgrades, the connection could provide power to parts of the province that haven’t had it for years, while reducing Iraq’s dependence on Iranian gas.

Over time, the connection could form the foundation for a regional power pool that eventually links Jordan, Iraq, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Connected grids would mean lower costs and greater stability for all.

With U.S. support, Jordan can also become a mining powerhouse and regional processing center for rare earth minerals found in monazite sands. These elements — an essential component for the magnets U.S. industry needs — are abundant in southern Jordan. The country already has built-in refining expertise and infrastructure from U.S.-Jordanian ventures like the Jordan Bromine Company. Unfortunately, the Biden administration failed to support this project. The current administration should not make the same mistake.

Jordanian pessimism about the economy is understandable, but I respectfully disagree. When I was in Amman, I helped a U.S. firm train young Jordanians — especially women — for remote data science jobs with Gulf companies. We designed a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the model. Final evaluation results will be available in 2027, but early signs are promising — participants are gaining skills and landing remote jobs.

This demonstrates the power of Jordanian resilience and private sector investment to generate employment opportunities and solve longstanding social problems — in this case, norms that discouraged women from commuting. Jordan needs more of these solutions to lower costs and expand job opportunities for its middle class.

As Jordan’s largest donor and supporter, the U.S. can help. Each year, U.S. law requires the Treasury to transfer $750 million dollars in cash to Jordan, funds that Amman needs to balance its books. Congress should give the State Department authority to condition these funds on progress against reform benchmarks: opening closed sectors, expanding natural gas networks, boosting power exports, and developing a U.S.-aligned critical mineral mining and processing sector. Properly applied, this leverage could empower reformers, weaken entrenched interests, and push notoriously slow ministries to deliver on priority projects.

Jordan’s economy does not need a revolution. But it does need more economic growth to keep its middle class productive in the face of high inflation, and increasing taxes. It needs political courage, strategic clarity, and a little tough love from its most important ally.

*Daniel Swift is a senior research analyst for economics, finance, and trade for the Center on Economic and Financial Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is a retired U.S. diplomat who served in Jordan from June 2019 to July 2023. *

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