More from @UnicusResearch

Sep 30

🚩Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcies are not one-off.

They’re connected signals of deteriorating collateral that can propagate into non-performing loans and broader auto ABS underperformance across the chain.

Here is our analysis and insight from our sources.🧵

1. What just happened?

Sept 25–26, 2025: A cluster of First Brands–linked financing entities (under the “Carnaby” umbrella) filed Chapter 11 in the Southern District of Texas, signaling acute stress and pushing First Brands loans into the 30s.

2. Today, First Brands Group itself filed Chapter 11, after weeks of lender scrutiny over opaque off-balance-sheet financing. Reports note billions of dollars in obligations and negotiations for over $1 billion in DIP financing to fund operations.

Read 8 tweets

Aug 10

🚩“The United States of America is never going to default, that is never going to happen” - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent

The above statement was uttered by the US Treasury Secretary to “calm the markets.”

WE (America and Americans) are addicted to DEBT

• a thread🧵

1. It is certainly not unheard of for a Treasury Secretary to raise the topic of default. For example, in 2023, Janet Yellen said that the U.S. should never default on its debt. The consequence of such an event, she warned, would be “an economic and financial catastrophe.”

2. A default by the U.S. government would also shatter precedent, according to the former Treasury Secretary. As she put it, “Since 1789, the United States has paid all our bills on time.”- that is a blatant lie. But that is a different story for another time.

But the very fact that Bessent thought it was necessary to reassure prospective Treasury bond buyers on this point is a RED FLAG.

Read 6 tweets

Jun 6

🚩We have a problem in the credit market.

We reviewed the Q1 2025 Investment Grade (IG) credit and analyzed the Q2.

We found that IG credit, sector by sector, is eroding. - a thread 🧵

1. The net rating bias (positive minus negative outlooks) was below zero in nearly every sector.

Translation? More names were put on downgrade watch than upgrade watch.

• Over 60% of sectors saw an increase in negative outlooks.

Here’s where the cracks are showing:

2. Retail: +3.6 ppt rise in negative bias

• Margins under pressure from soft demand, sticky labor costs, and bloated inventories.

• Dollar Tree, Five Below, DG = case studies in margin compression (refer our write up on recent earnings).

Read 6 tweets

Jun 2

🚨Nearly 160 companies will lay off employees throughout June, exceeding the approximately 130 companies that did so in May.

Here are the upcoming layoffs in June 2025- a thread🧵

1. We have been tracking the corporate defaults, downgrades and bankruptcies.

• The layoffs in June will affect multiple industries, including retail, pharmaceutical, food and beverage, airlines, package delivery and more (WARN)

• Layoffs in the workforce vary by company, with some laying off between one and 25 employees; other companies, like U.S. Cellular, have larger cuts planned.

2. The full list, based on WARN notices via , includes WARNTracker.com

Read 10 tweets

May 28

🚨 The most overlooked aspect of the Big Beautiful Bill is the changes to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP).

• The ripple effects of SNAP will lead to job losses in $WMT and other retailers.

• A segment of consumers will get sucked into the blackhole of economic nothingness - never to recover.

• a 🧵 @m3_melody @JG_Nuke @thejobchick

1. Major changes are introduced to SNAP in H.R.1 – and we have analyzed the companies that will be impacted the most and the consumers who will be pushed below the poverty line.

2. According to Economic Research Services, in 2023, 42.1 million people, or 12.6% of the U.S. population, received SNAP benefits monthly.

• The program serves as the nation’s largest nutrition assistance program, with 86% of benefits going to households with children, elderly, or individuals with disabilities.

Read 6 tweets

May 27

🚨 Nearly 452,000 defaulted student loan borrowers are Social Security recipients.

• Social Security garnishments are happening. It is about to push a huge chunk of people below poverty line.

🚩We found a private contractor who prefers the defaulters to stay in default - a depressing thread🧵

1. Older borrowers have become the fastest-growing group in the student loan portfolio, which has led to a rising share of defaulters being Social Security beneficiaries. From 2017 to 2023, the number of student loan borrowers aged 62 and older ballooned by 59% (from 1.7 million to 2.7 million), even as the number of borrowers under 62 slightly declined.

2. Approximately 87% of student loan borrowers receiving Social Security benefits have incomes below 225% of the federal poverty level, a threshold associated with material hardship, including food insecurity and difficulties paying utility bills.

Read 4 tweets