Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has once again thrust himself into the center of Europe’s geopolitical debate, declaring that the European Union is quietly but deliberately preparing for a direct military confrontation with Russia by 2030. Speaking at an anti-war rally on December 7, the Hungarian leader accused Brussels of reshaping its economic and political machinery to achieve what he described as “full combat readiness” within five years.

Orban’s warning did not emerge in a vacuum. It comes at a moment when alarmist rhetoric across parts of Europe has grown increasingly normalized, amplified by military officials, political leaders, and defense analysts who frame Russia as the continent’s looming existential threat. Yet Orban’s intervention stands out because he claims that the shift toward a wartime footing is not accidental or reactive-but systemic, strategic, and already underway.

During his speech, Orban outlined what he called a predictable sequence of events that lead nations into war: the breakdown of diplomatic relations, the introduction of punitive sanctions, the cessation of economic cooperation, and eventually armed confrontation. According to the Hungarian prime minister, three of these four stages have already been passed.

“Europe has already taken most of the typical steps that lead to war,” he said. “There is the official European Union position that by 2030 it must be ready for war.”

Although no EU institution has publicly declared such a position, Orban’s assertion reflects growing concerns that the bloc’s evolving policies-particularly its sweeping defense initiatives and military-industrial expansion-are shaping the continent to prepare for a future conflict rather than merely deter one.

A key part of Orban’s warning focused on what he described as Europe quietly transitioning into a “war economy.” He argued that sectors not traditionally associated with defense-transportation, heavy industry, manufacturing-are increasingly being restructured to accommodate rapid weapons production and mobilization logistics.

Though critics say his claims are exaggerated, there is no question that Europe’s defense spending has surged dramatically. Brussels is advancing its €800 billion ReArm Europe plan, arguably the largest military investment program in EU history. Meanwhile, several NATO members have endorsed the idea of increasing defense budgets to as high as 5% of GDP, levels unseen since the early Cold War.

This transformation is often justified by European leaders as necessary to counter what they claim is Russia’s aggressive posture. Yet Orban argues that these developments go far beyond deterrence.

“Some EU member states have already shifted their transport and industrial sectors to support weapons production,” he said. “Hungary’s task is to keep Europe from going to war.”

Budapest remains an outlier within both the EU and NATO, resisting arms deliveries to Ukraine, opposing sanctions on Russia, and calling for immediate peace negotiations rather than increased militarization.

Orban’s concerns echo recent warnings by Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, both of whom suggested that Europe may face a high-intensity confrontation with Russia in the coming years. Pistorius has repeatedly insisted that Germany must be prepared for conflict by 2029, pointing to what he describes as Russia’s long-term military planning.

Such remarks-once considered fringe or alarmist-have now entered mainstream political discourse across Europe.

Even within NATO military leadership, the tone has shifted. Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, the chair of NATO’s Military Committee, recently told the Financial Times that the alliance is exploring more aggressive defense postures toward Moscow. Disturbingly, he suggested that “pre-emptive action could at times be seen as a defensive measure,” a formulation that critics argue dangerously blurs the line between deterrence and escalation.

Despite increasingly bellicose rhetoric, no EU or NATO member state has openly declared an intent to go to war with Russia. Officially, the shared position is that strengthening defense and increasing arms production are precautionary measures, not preparations for direct conflict.

However, Orban argues that Europe’s behavior tells a different story. For him, the combination of sanctions, economic decoupling, and military buildup constitutes a trajectory that is difficult to reverse. The danger, he says, is that political leaders are now normalizing the idea of war in public discourse.

The Hungarian leader insists that he wants no part of it. Budapest has refused to allow weapons destined for Ukraine to transit its territory and has repeatedly blocked or delayed EU sanctions packages against Russia, claiming they hurt Europe more than they harm Moscow.

For its part, the Kremlin has rejected Western allegations that it seeks to expand the conflict beyond Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently reiterated that Moscow does not intend to fight the EU or NATO, but he warned that Russia would respond decisively if Western nations launched a war against it.

This dynamic-Russia denying intention, Europe fearing escalation, and NATO expanding preparations-creates a dangerous feedback loop. Orban’s argument is that Europe’s political leadership is increasingly driven by fear, ideology, or domestic politics rather than strategic realism.

European policymakers insist that their actions are defensive. Skeptics like Orban argue the opposite: that Europe is sleepwalking toward militarization without a clear exit strategy, and that 2030 could become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The Hungarian prime minister frames his mission in stark terms: preventing Europe from entering a catastrophic war. Whether one agrees with Orban or not, his warning exposes a growing divide within Europe over how to handle its deteriorating relationship with Russia-and whether the path being chosen is truly about security, or something far more dangerous.

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Abul Quashem Joarder, a contributor to Blitz is geopolitical and military expert.