INSIDE POLITICS: Speculation mounts that PM may gamble on early election to avoid damage from possible censure motion

Anutin: Faces balancing act

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul is widely believed to be weighing up an early House dissolution should credible signs emerge that the opposition Pheu Thai Party plans to file a no-confidence motion against his two-month-old government — a move that could spare his Bhumjaithai Party a politically bruising debate ahead of a planned general election next year.

Analysts say a dissolution before a no-confidence debate would allow Mr Anutin to regain control of the political timetable and project an image of confidence and decisiveness.

However, critics counter that such a move would risk being viewed as an attempt to dodge scrutiny and could backfire.

Mr Anutin, who took office in June after a surprise realignment of parliamentary alliances, faces a delicate balancing act as his coalition juggles governance with election preparations. With the election expected around March next year, speculation is mounting that Pheu Thai — now the second-largest opposition party after the People’s Party — will seek to undermine his administration’s credibility by tabling a no-confidence motion within months.

Government insiders have said the prime minister will not allow his short administration to become a political punching bag.

“There is no reason to let the opposition drag the government through a week-long debate when the election is already near,” one Bhumjaithai strategist said, requesting anonymity.

“Dissolving the House would allow the party to run the game, reset the narrative and campaign from a position of strength.”

Supporters of an early dissolution argue that Mr Anutin’s best chance of maintaining momentum lies in avoiding a no-confidence debate that could expose his government’s weaknesses and give rivals ammunition ahead of the polls.

“No-confidence debates in Thailand are not just parliamentary exercises; they are televised political theatre,” said a political scientist. “If the opposition accuses the government of incompetence or corruption — even without conclusive proof — public perception can shift dramatically.”

By calling an early election, Mr Anutin could preempt such attacks while keeping his image as a clean, pragmatic leader intact. Bhumjaithai, known for its populist programmes such as cannabis decriminalisation and rural infrastructure projects, could then pivot to campaign mode under favourable conditions — emphasising continuity, local development, and stability.

Moreover, dissolving the House before being cornered by a no-confidence vote could rally coalition partners and small parties that are increasingly nervous about approval ratings in danger of taking a battering.

“An early election could unite the coalition under the banner of survival,” said a source close to the subject. “It would be easier for Bhumjaithai to negotiate new alliances while still holding the prime minister’s office.”

However, critics warn that dissolving the House prematurely could be perceived as a sign of weakness and erode public trust. “Mr Anutin risks being accused of running away from accountability,” said Wanwichit Boonprong, a political analyst at Rangsit University. “Thai voters are increasingly cynical about politicians who use technical manoeuvres to avoid scrutiny.”

A no-confidence debate, though risky, could give the prime minister a platform to defend his policies, showcase administrative stability, and challenge the opposition to present credible alternatives. Evading it, some argue, would reinforce Pheu Thai’s narrative that the current government lacks transparency and moral authority.

A senior Pheu Thai source was reported as saying that walking away from the debate would confirm what Pheu Thai has been saying — that this government is fragile and afraid of the truth.

The opposition is said to be looking to target alleged irregularities in cabinet appointments, delays in drought-relief projects, and the handling of fuel subsidies — issues that resonate strongly with rural voters.

In addition, dissolving the House of Representatives before a no-confidence motion could spark a backlash from coalition partners who fear losing their ministerial posts and patronage networks prematurely.

Still, those close to the prime minister argue that control over timing is a legitimate and essential aspect of political leadership.

“Every Thai leader since 1992 has dissolved the House when the timing favoured them,” said a veteran Bhumjaithai lawmaker. “It’s not running away — it’s political strategy.”

Indeed, the constitution grants the prime minister discretion in dissolving the House. Well-timed dissolutions have often benefited incumbents — such as when Thaksin Shinawatra called snap polls in 2005 and Prayut chan-o-cha did so in 2019.

Furthermore, with Bhumjaithai’s popularity at around 20–25% in recent opinion polls — roughly on a par with Pheu Thai in several provinces — Mr Anutin could feel that going to the polls early would prevent the opposition from fully mobilising its campaign machinery. The party’s strong provincial networks, especially in the Northeast and lower Central Plains region, could help it capitalise on its advantage as an incumbent.

“Mr Anutin knows that politics is about momentum,” said a source. “If he dissolves the House during a moment of relative stability, the Bhumjaithai can enter the campaign exuding an aura of leadership rather than having to do damage control.”

As the political temperature rises, the question is not whether Pheu Thai will move against Mr Anutin, but whether he will act first. A House dissolution would cut short his four-month term — the shortest premiership in recent Thai history — but it might also prevent a drawn-out parliamentary confrontation that could harm his electoral prospects, according to the source. The decision will ultimately depend on timing, public sentiment, and Mr Anutin’s confidence in his party’s readiness. “This is not about avoiding a debate,” a senior government aide insisted. “It’s about choosing the battlefield.”

For now, the political calendar remains fluid — but if signs of a no-confidence motion grow stronger, few doubt that Mr Anutin will pull the trigger rather than sit through a week of televised attacks that could undo months of careful positioning.