I am positive that you are going to be scrolling TikTok next March and stumble upon a content creator who believes they have the perfect formula to predict the National Championship winner.
I am positive they will start naming the teams that rate inside the top 20 nationally in offensive efficiency and top 20 in defensive efficiency. Or the top 40 in offense and top 22 in defense. Or whatever formula they prefer.
I am also positive that they are wrong. The magic wands have been exposed, most notably by the great Will Warren, for perusing KenPom’s data after the NCAA Tournament, not before. Champions like 2015 [Duke](https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba…
I am positive that you are going to be scrolling TikTok next March and stumble upon a content creator who believes they have the perfect formula to predict the National Championship winner.
I am positive they will start naming the teams that rate inside the top 20 nationally in offensive efficiency and top 20 in defensive efficiency. Or the top 40 in offense and top 22 in defense. Or whatever formula they prefer.
I am also positive that they are wrong. The magic wands have been exposed, most notably by the great Will Warren, for perusing KenPom’s data after the NCAA Tournament, not before. Champions like 2015 Duke, 2017 North Carolina, 2018 Villanova, 2021 Baylor and 2022 Kansas all proved that you could win a National Championship with a defense that ranked outside the top-20 entering the Big Dance, much to the chagrin of the 20/20 club or 40/22 cult.
College basketball is changing now more than ever, so our analysis has to bob and weave with it, too.
Offense has ballooned with the richest teams now using the best strategies. OER — short-hand for Offensive Efficiency Rating — slips out of the mouths of new and old coaches alike. Last year was the most efficient offensive season in college basketball history. With the talent pool expanding, including an avalanche from the international waters, and more rules favoring the offense (namely, continuation and tweaked block-charge rules), college basketball could be on the verge of yet another offensive explosion.
I do not think it’s a coincidence that each of the past eight National Championship-winning clubs has had a higher-rated offense than defense entering March Madness. Offense wins championships now more than ever.
In a roundabout way, those TikToks may miss the forest for the trees. They are right, in a way. To win the most random sporting event in sports, you must be an elite team. It’s a stone-cold fact that one of the top-six teams on KenPom entering the NCAA Tournament has won the National Championship in 24 of the past 28 seasons. To be an elite team, you’d better have one side of the ball that looks different than 98% of the rest.
With the season right around the corner, the search for elite units starts now.
Let’s dive into the preseason national championship tiers, split three ways.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Tier 1: No-brainers
Houston
**Odds to win national title: **+1000
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: G Isiah Harwell, F Kalifa Sakho, G Mercy Miller, G Ramon Walker, G Chase McCarty
Elite unit sniff test: The defense; TBD on the offense
The path to the title: Kelvin Sampson is one of the elite coaches in all of college basketball, and he’s armed with a plethora of NBA talent. Houston has five or six players in this rotation who are already on NBA radars. The Cougars’ defense should be one of the best units in the sport with Uzan at the point of attack, Sharp hounding big guards and Tugler flying around as a one-man wrecking ball. This roster has so much size, speed and athleticism. Houston’s halfcourt offense will miss LJ Cryer and J’Wan Roberts, but Sampson believes he has found a gem in Flemings. The freshman point guard is a walking paint touch who should help unlock advantages for Sharp and Uzan to pour in buckets.
Purdue
**Odds to win national title: **+950
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: C Daniel Jacobsen, G Omer Mayer, G Gicarri Harris, F Liam Murphy, G Antione West Jr.
Elite unit sniff test: The offense, unequivocally.
The path to the title: Purdue can’t win the National Championship without this offense becoming an unguardable freight train. Like No. 1 in the country, good. You can see the vision with Smith, CBS Sports’ Preseason Player of the Year, operating as the set-the-table fulcrum in a Matt Painter scheme that will create terrific looks. Purdue has a remarkably high floor because it boasts the best point guard in America and has significantly improved its interior defense and rebounding. But it can’t win the title unless Kaufman-Renn can find the right checks and balances (on both ends) now that he’s playing the 4 more often than the 5. The development of 7-foot-4, redshirt-freshman center Daniel Jacobsen looms large. His shot-blocking and pick-and-pop skill set complements Kaufman-Renn well ... on paper. A unique skillset is tantalizing, but Purdue needs more from Jacobsen on the glass to make it all work.
If Purdue doesn’t win the title, you can likely blame the lack of top-tier athleticism that routinely shows up on defense. Slow-footed bigs and undersized point-of-attack defenders often make a bad combination. Purdue’s best defense may be an offense that forces you to take it out of the net 40 possessions a night.
UConn
**Odds to win national title: **+1400
Projected starting lineup
- G Silas Demary Jr.
- G Solo Ball
- G/F Jaylin Stewart
- F Alex Karaban
- C Tarris Reed Jr.
Top reserves: G Braylon Mullins (out six weeks with foot injury), G Malachi Smith, F Eric Reibe, G/F Jayden Ross, G Jacob Furphy
Elite unit sniff test: The offense
The path to the title: UConn needs to get healthy because it has the ingredients to make a real run. The shooting on this roster is ridiculous, and UConn becomes a nearly impossible cover if Reed puts it all together as that low-post destroyer who gobbles up offensive rebounds. This offense should hum with big or small lineups, which is invaluable in single-elimination tournaments.
Last year, the Huskies’ point guards turned it over in pick-and-rolls at the highest rate of any Dan Hurley-coached UConn club. The transformation at that position with additions like Demary and Smith should pay serious dividends immediately. A few fewer turnovers and more defensive bite should vault UConn back into true title contention.
Get healthy and let’s hoop.
Kentucky
**Odds to win national title: **+1400
Projected starting lineup
- G Jaland Lowe
- G Otega Oweh
- G Denzel Aberdeen
- F Mo Dioubate
- F Brandon Garrison
Top reserves: C Jayden Quaintance (if healthy), G Jasper Johnson, F Kam Williams, G Collin Chandler, F Malachi Moreno, G Trent Noah
Elite unit sniff test: The offense and the defense.
The path to the title: Kentucky’s athleticism is night and day different compared to a year ago, but finding a big man who can make reads was the biggest preseason X-Factor.
Insert freshman Malachi Moreno. I would not be surprised if the sleek, 7-foot freshman dispatches some of the veterans ahead of him on the depth chart, sooner rather than later. Moreno’s combination of size, IQ, feel and mobility help him connect the dots for a Kentucky roster just loaded with playable dudes. The shooters and slashers on this roster are weaponized by all the movement, pace and cutting that a Mark Pope offense demands.
This defense is much-improved, too. Oweh and Dioubate are excellent defenders for their respective positions, but the buy-in up and down the roster is noticeable.
Kentucky is on the short list of teams that could actually finish with a top-10 offense and defense.
They are my pick to win the title.
Florida
Odds to win national title: +1400
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: G CJ Ingram, C Micah Handlogten, G Urban Klavzar, G AJ Brown, G Isaiah Brown
Elite unit sniff test: Maybe both the offense and the defense.
The path to the title: Big people move little ones, and Florida has some huge dudes on this roster. Pivoting to a three-big lineup of Haugh, Condon and Chinyelu could be a little wonky at first, but it should work just fine, thanks to Haugh’s much-improved handle and jumper.
Florida is going to protect the rim, rebound, run and score. Condon is a little better. Haugh is a bit better. Lee will be a portal hit. Fland is one of the most talented guards in the SEC, who will be maximized in this scheme.
But the Gators’ title chase hinges on point-of-attack defense. Alijah Martin and Will Richard were big, strong, rangy and covered a ton of ground on the perimeter. Florida has to find perimeter stoppers beyond Fland to reach the peak of its powers. Keep an eye on Ingram. The ballyhooed freshman can move those puppies and understands that defense is his path to playing time.
Texas Tech
**Odds to win national title: **+1400
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: G Donovan Atwell, F Josiah Moseley, G Jaylen Petty
Elite unit sniff test: The offense for sure. The defense may not be far away, either.
The path to the title: Grant McCasland does not have the deepest team, but the optionality throughout the eight-man rotation is tantalizing. The Anderson-Toppin two-man game should be outstanding, and Watts is the picturesque Darrion Williams replacement as a jumbo wing who loves to find mismatches with post-ups. Texas Tech’s offense could be one of the best in America because it has real-deal floor spacing and a vertical lob threat in Bamgboye, surrounding the nucleus of Toppin, Anderson and Watts.
Elite rim defense has become essential to win a National Championship. It’s why Bamboye was such a huge priority for Texas Tech in the portal. Opponents shot just 43% at the rim against VCU when Bamgboye was on the floor, per hoop-explorer. If he has a similar impact for Texas Tech, watch out.
Injuries feel like the only thing that could slow this team down, but you could say that about a ton of programs.
Duke
**Odds to win national title: **+1100
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: G Cayden Boozer, F Maliq Brown, G/F Dame Sarr, G Darren Harris, F Sebastian Wilkins
Elite unit sniff test: The offense. TBD on the defense.
The path to the title: A fulcrum like Cameron Boozer gives a team a chance to do some serious damage because it feels like he is incapable of playing poorly. He can shoot from anywhere on the floor, and his physicality and footwork help him get to the front of the rim at will. Duke has a boatload of shooting, interior thump and a gorgeous offensive scheme that generates great looks repeatedly.
Guard play and some defensive scheme questions are the only things that could keep Duke from becoming one of the best teams in the sport because the Blue Devils have everything else. Caleb Foster and Cayden Boozer have to be up to snuff at point guard. Maliq Brown has to stay healthy defensively for Duke to be at its best because the rim defense won’t be the same this year without Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach. Ngongba is a solid defender. Can he become a great one?
Michigan
**Odds to win national title: **+2000
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: F Morez Johnson Jr., G Trey McKenney, F Will Tschetter, G LJ Cason, G Winters Grady
Elite unit sniff test: The offense and the defense.
The path to the title: Michigan’s strengths should travel every night. Dusty May has thick wings, rugged forwards and an enormous 7-foot-3 center in Mara. The raw size up and down the roster is ridiculous, and Michigan has a path to being excellent on both ends because of it. The defense should be elite, especially with Mara as a back-line eraser and Johnson or Lendeborg cleaning the glass. The transition offense will be a strength. In the halfcourt, Michigan shouldn’t have problems creating openings with Cadeau’s drives and Mara’s creativity as a playmaker.
All those advantages are money in the bank for Lendeborg, who should blossom as an elite play-finisher.
Michigan quietly has accumulated one of the most talented rosters in the country. It has six top-50 recruits in its rotation, and that’s not counting Lendeborg, who will play in the NBA next year.
Tier 2: On the doorstep
Kansas
**Odds to win national title: **+2200
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: G Elmarko Jackson, F Bryson Tiller, C Paul Mbiya, G Jayden Dawson, G Jamari McDowell
Elite unit sniff test: Nothing yet, but the defense could get there.
The path to the title: Kansas has a future NBA All-Star guard in Peterson and the personnel to be stout defensively. Those two assets alone give Bill Self the chance to make one more (last?) run at glory. Kansas has some lineups where it can be super switchable defensively. That’s enticing. Plus, you know a shot-swatter like Bidunga strikes fear into would-be drivers.
Ultimately, finding a second efficient form of offense will be essential to KU’s title chase. It can’t be the Peterson show 24/7, especially as defenses load up on him. Rosario and Dawson give KU real spacers, but Council, White and Jackson are going to get plenty of advantageous matchups. Can they consistently and efficiently put the ball on the deck and go score?
St. John’s
Odds to win national title: +2000
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: G Joson Sanon, G Dylan Darling, F Ruben Prey, G Kelvin Odih, G Lefteris Liotopoulos
Elite unit sniff test: Nothing yet, but the offense and defense could get there.
The path to the title: When Jackson, Mitchell, Hopkins and Ejiofor are on the floor together, St. John’s has a combination of speed, power and athleticism that few can argue with. I trust Rick Pitino to find the right combinations for this talent-laden roster, but recreating that hyena-like perimeter defense will make-or-break the Johnnies’ outlook. Jackson and Sanon didn’t play much defense last year. They have to sit down and guard, or Pitino will find someone who will.
The two-way development of those young guards will determine if St. John’s can win it all. I worry there will be times when St. John’s can’t play optimal offensive lineups because Pitino sides (understandably) with his best defenders.
BYU
Odds to win national title: +2000
Projected starting lineup
- G Rob Wright
- G Kennard Davis
- G Richie Saunders
- G/F AJ Dybantsa
- F Keba Keita
Top reserves: G Dawson Baker, F Dominique Diomande, F Khadim Mboup, F Mihailo Boskovic, F Xavion Staton, F Tyler Mrus, G Aleksej Kostic
Elite unit sniff test: The offense is there; the defense is not there.
The path to the title: BYU’s offense is going to cook because it has so many answers to the test. Dybantsa is a total freak in transition and should live at the foul line, plus the Wright-Keita pick-and-roll should bend defenses routinely. I’m just curious how it all blends and meshes together. Where does Richie Saunders fit into this now that he’s not the fulcrum of the offense? Can this supporting cast make shots even though they won’t have the ball in their hands a ton? Kevin Young is an excellent offensive mastermind, and if this meshes, BYU could have the bones of a top-five offense.
The defense will be a bit better with Davis and Dybantsa upgrading the athleticism in a real way, but the rim protection when Keita isn’t on the floor could be a major red flag. He has to defend without fouling because BYU may need him to play 30ish minutes every night.
Illinois
Odds to win national title: +2000
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: F David Mirkovic, G Mihailo Petrovic, C Zvonimir Ivisic, G Brandon Lee, F Jake Davis, F Ty Rodgers (when healthy)
Elite unit sniff test: The offense is there; the defense is not there.
The path to the title: Illinois will be a good team because newcomers like Stojakovic, Mirkovic and Wagler are nice players, but the Illini can’t be a great team without its returners leveling up. Can Tomislav Ivisic stay healthy and cement himself as the best true center in college basketball? Can Boswell put it all together and become one of the top two-way guards in the Big Ten? If so, Illinois is a dangerous team with a well-rounded offense that could score in the 80s every night, especially with a much-improved shot diet.
Brad Underwood has the bones of a top-five offense, but a new-look defense needs to get more stops in a hurry to truly contend for a ring.
Arkansas
Odds to win national title: +2700
Projected starting lineup
- G DJ Wagner
- G Darius Acuff
- G/F Karter Knox
- F Trevon Brazile
- F Nick Pringle
**Top reserves: **G Meleek Thomas, F Malique Ewin, G/F Billy Richmond III, G/F Isaiah Sealy
Elite unit sniff test: Nothing yet, but the offense and defense could get there.
The path to the title: Arkansas has the pieces to do real damage thanks to a blend of returners who play defense and newcomers who can really score. Acuff is a five-star freshman who doesn’t look like an 18-year-old, physically. Thomas is a slippery five-star freshman who can put the ball in the bucket from every level. It’s enticing to see those two dudes surrounded by a physical point-of-attack defender in Wagner, hyper-athletic wings in Knox and Richmond and three big men in Brazile, Pringle and Ewin, who all do different things well.
This top-eight rotation should beat teams up with its physicality and barrage of downhill attackers and cutters.
Calipari has not had a team with a top-20 offense and defense since 2019. For one reason or another, he’s had a hard time streamlining things, and his teams tend to leak oil on one end or the other.
This team could (and should) buck that trend.
UCLA
Odds to win national title: +2500
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: G Trent Perry, F Steven Jamerson II, G Jamar Brown, F Brandon Williams
Elite unit sniff test: Nothing yet, but the offense and defense could get there.
The path to the title: The roadmap for UCLA is clear. You’re banking on Mick Cronin building a great defense like he always does. You’re also banking on point guard Donovan Dent changing the complexion of the Bruins’ offense with his slick drives and remarkable vision. UCLA has shooting galore with Clark, Dailey, Bilodeau, Perry and Brown. It can find mismatches. It should have a low turnover rate with two point guards on the floor at all times.
At four spots, UCLA is cooking with gas.
If Booker and Jamerson can team up to handle the interior defense and rebounding, UCLA can have a special year. If UCLA is constantly losing the battle in the paint, it will lose the war.
Louisville
**Odds to win national title: **+2000
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: G Adrian Wooley, F Kasean Pryor, C Aly Khalifa, F Khani Rooths, F Vangelis Zougris, G Kobe Rodgers
Elite unit sniff test: The offense is there; the defense is not close yet.
The path to the title: Guard play is so often the difference-maker in March, and Louisville has four certified assassins in this backcourt. They’ll need time to mesh, but holding down Brown, Conwell, McKneely and Wooley will be no easy task for opposing defenses. Even on nights when the 3s aren’t dropping, Louisville will have pathways to score with Aly Khalifa’s backdoor dimes and plenty of offensive rebounding.
Louisville will be untouchable when the snipers are on point, but I’m a smidge concerned about what caliber of defense we’ll see from the Cardinals every night. The personnel is not special on that end, so the togetherness and connectivity from this new-look group has to be on-point to cover up gaps and get stops.
Defensive continuity takes time.
Arizona
Odds to win national title: +3500
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: C Motiejus Krivas, F Ivan Kharchenkov, G/F Dwayne Aristode, C Sidi Gueye, G Evan Nelson
Elite unit sniff test: Nothing yet, but the offense and defense could get there.
The path to the title: Arizona has grown men littered all across this rotation. Defend. Rebound. Run. That’s what should make Tommy Lloyd’s group a total menace this year.
The halfcourt offense has to find problem-solvers to win it all. Five-star freshmen Koa Peat and Brayden Burries won’t play like up-and-down diaper dandies, and Bradley has gotten better every single year. The interior scoring and offensive rebounding from Awaka, Peat and Krivas will show up, but I’m nervous that Arizona has a few too many guys that opposing defenses aren’t scared about from 3-point range. You don’t have to guard Awaka or Krivas out there. Peat has to prove he can make ’em. Bradley has never been a high-volume 3-point shooter.
(God, imagine if Carter Bryant or Henri Veesaar had stayed on this team!?)
Tier 3: Dark horses
Gonzaga
Odds to win national title: +3500
Projected starting lineup
- G Braeden Smith
- G Adam Miller
- G/F Tyon Grant-Foster
- F Braden Huff
- F Graham Ike
Top reserves: G Mario Saint-Supery, G Emmanuel Innocenti, F Steele Venters, C Ismaila Diagne, G/F Jalen Warley, G/F Davis Fogle
Elite unit sniff test: The offense should be there; TBD if the defense can get there.
The path to the title: Gonzaga is old as dirt and has 11 players who can feasibly stick in this rotation. Brilliant point guard Ryan Nembhard will be sorely missed, but Gonzaga should be able to smash teams in the paint with the Huff-Ike pairing. Those two bigs could easily combine for 35 points a night in this scheme. Oh, and the transition offense will be there, especially with Grant-Foster finally, mercifully cleared to play.
There’s just a lot to like with this collection of talent, especially with a pool of role players who fill different voids. Need shooting? Venters is finally healthy. Need defense? Innocenti brings the clamps daily. Need a monster back-line defender? Here comes Diagne. Need a rim-pressuring point guard? Saint-Supery is ready and willing.
The point guard play won’t be the same, but the Zags still have a real chance to make noise. I just worry that a Huff-Ike front-line is nothing more than solid defensively.
Alabama
Odds to win national title: +3000
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: G Jalil Bethea (when healthy), G Houston Mallette, C Noah Williamson, F London Jemison, G Davion Hannah, F Amari Allen, F Keitenn Bristow
Elite unit sniff test: The offense.
The path to the title: You know Nate Oats is going to squeeze every ounce of offense out of his group with excellent shot selection, optimal concepts and oodles of pace. With speedy guards like Aden Holloway and Labaron Philon atop the pecking order, Alabama will play at the pace of a rocket. This frontcourt is not quite as athletic or twitchy, but Bol Bowen, Sherrell and Williamson can all space the floor, which allows Bama to play a little differently.
An NBA-caliber guard like Philon makes Bama a scary cover, but it’s defense and rebounding that will determine if Oats can win this whole thing. End of discussion.
North Carolina
Odds to win national title: +4000
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: F Jarin Stevenson, G Derek Dixon, G Jonathan Powell, G Jaydon Young, F Zayden High, F James Brown, G Isaiah Denis
Elite unit sniff test: Nothing yet but the defense could get there.
The path to the title: It’s fair to question if Hubert Davis can maximize this roster after two of his last three teams have underwhelmed, but UNC’s roster makes way more sense this year. It has three plus defenders at three levels of the floor and loads of skilled shooters.
Five-star freshman Caleb Wilson looks like a two-way difference-maker, and Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar also helps change the complexion of this rim defense. While UNC may not have a superstar guard, the Tar Heels do have four guards who can operate in ball screens, namely Trimble, Evans, Bogavac and Dixon. It also has multiple big men who can make reads.
If this defense can be a top-15 unit and Wilson lives up to his lottery-pick potential, UNC has enough weapons to make real noise. The sum should be greater than the individual parts with this group.
Tennessee
Odds to win national title: +3000
Projected starting lineup
Top reserves: F Jaylen Carey, F JP Estrella, G Ethan Burg, G Bishop Boswell, F DeWayne Brown, G/F Amari Evans
Elite unit sniff test: Nothing yet, but the defense could unquestionably get there.
The path to the title: Tennessee has an elite point guard (Gillespie), a future lottery pick (Ament), five playable big men and a proven defensive identity that will make life difficult. That’s the recipe. Tennessee’s backcourt may be one piece short of fully scaling the mountain, but the Gillespie-Ament duo will get better and better with time.
EXPLAINING NOTABLE EXCLUSIONS
Iowa State (No. 16 in AP Top 25): Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic provide a high-floor nucleus, but Iowa State’s backcourt does not have the same explosiveness. A season-ending injury to Mason Williams puts a heavy onus on Utah Valley transfer Dom Nelson and freshmen Jamarion Bateman and Killyan Toure to be impact players. Iowa State is so clearly a good team. I question if it has an elite gear. Odds to win national title:* +3500*
Auburn (No. 20 in AP Top 25): Last year at this time, I was all-in on Auburn, not Alabama, being the best team in the SEC. This year, I’m pulling back a tad. I just do not think this rim defense will be up to snuff without Dylan Cardwell and Johni Broome. The Keyshawn Hall-Tahaad Pettiford-KeShawn Murphy trio can hoop, but there’s extra turnover risk in this offensive portfolio, which could mitigate some of Auburn’s excellent offensive rebounding. There are just too many red flags on this profile to endorse Auburn as a title contender. ***Odds to win national title: *+4000
Creighton (No. 23 in AP Top 25): The offense will vroom with Josh Dix and [Owe