With just three weeks remaining in the regular season, the College Football Playoff picture is starting to take shape. The number of Power Four teams with a realistic shot at securing one of the 11 non-Group of Six bids in the 12-team bracket is dwindling at a rapid pace. A handful of programs are clearly in control of their own destiny, while others are clinging to life, relying on tiebreakers, chaos elsewhere or near-perfect finishes to stay alive in the at-large conversation.
Indiana, Ohio State and Texas A&M – the …
With just three weeks remaining in the regular season, the College Football Playoff picture is starting to take shape. The number of Power Four teams with a realistic shot at securing one of the 11 non-Group of Six bids in the 12-team bracket is dwindling at a rapid pace. A handful of programs are clearly in control of their own destiny, while others are clinging to life, relying on tiebreakers, chaos elsewhere or near-perfect finishes to stay alive in the at-large conversation.
Indiana, Ohio State and Texas A&M – the last of the unbeatens – continue to solidify strong résumés as essential locks to reach the CFP. Meanwhile others like Alabama, Georgia, Oregon and a few others are jockeying for position with marquee wins and tricky tests remaining on their schedules.
In the Big 12, Texas Tech has separated itself as the clear top dog, carving out a strong résumé and taking control of the conference race. Still, BYU and Cincinnati can’t be ruled out yet. The ACC is descending into a messy, self-cannibalizing scramble, with seven teams still mathematically alive, making the conference race one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.
So, which teams are steering toward the CFP, and which have fallen off course? This Week 12 edition of the College Football Playoff Traffic Report sorts every Power Four team into tiers, from programs on cruise control to those effectively out of the race:
🚀 On cruise control 🟢 In the driver’s seat 🟡 Bumper-to-bumper 🔴 Sitting on the shoulder ⛔ Out of the race
Note:* Rankings referenced are from the first CFP Rankings released last week.*
🚀** **On cruise control
Look elite, have a clear path and have margin for error
No. 2 Indiana (10-0): The Hoosiers built themselves plenty of margin for error, but after Fernando Mendoza went 80 yards to put away Penn State, they didn’t even need it. With Wisconsin and Purdue – a combined 1-12 in Big Ten play – left on the schedule, Indiana is essentially locked into both the Big Ten title game and the CFP.
No. 1 Ohio State (9-0): The Buckeyes have all but secured their CFP spot, but that looming road trip north to face Michigan could knock them out of the Big Ten title game if they lose to their rival again.
No. 3 Texas A&M (9-0): This might just be the year Texas A&M is for real and living up to all those championship talks. There’s a revenge factor against South Carolina this Saturday, and the season-ending showdown at rival Texas could have SEC title game implications – if the Aggies’ spot isn’t already locked up.
No. 5 Georgia (8-1): Kirby Smart won’t want to leave anything to chance, and Georgia has leeway to at worst split its remaining games against Texas and rival Georgia Tech. With their SEC slate wrapping up this Saturday, the Bulldogs could also rely on a little chaos in the final two weeks to secure a return trip to Atlanta.
No. 4 Alabama (8-1): The Crimson Tide aren’t exactly running away from SEC opponents, which makes them a bit shaky with tough tests coming against a stout Oklahoma defense and the always unpredictable Iron Bowl at Auburn to close the season. Still, with its résumé, Alabama looks well-positioned to control its own path to both the SEC title game and CFP.
No. 6 Ole Miss (9-1): The Rebels have a bit of margin for error over their final two games. Still, the overall strength of their résumé still leaves something to be desired. Ole Miss takes on Florida and closes the regular season with the Egg Bowl at Mississippi State on Black Friday.
No. 8 Texas Tech (9-1): Nobody in the Big 12 is beating a healthy Texas Tech. That Red Raiders defense ranks among the best in the country and could carry the program to its first outright conference title since 1955.
🟢 In the driver’s seat
Control their path, but still vulnerable – one or two unexpected hiccups could matter
No. 9 Oregon (8-1): That two-minute drive by Dante Moore that set up Atticus Sappington’s game-winning field goal at rain-soaked Iowa showed the Ducks are built for postseason pressure. But Oregon still isn’t a lock for the CFP, with three tough games remaining in the competitive Big Ten. A short-week Friday matchup against Minnesota – coming off a bye – kicks off the stretch, followed by West Coast tests vs. USC and at Washington to close the regular season.
No. 10 Notre Dame (7-2): After starting the season 0-2, Notre Dame has rattled off seven straight wins, tied for the fifth-longest active streak in the FBS. The Fighting Irish now face a critical road test at Pittsburgh – winners of five straight. Lose, and Notre Dame will be left out of the CFP this time.
No. 11 Texas (7-2): The Longhorns landed just outside the 12-team field in the initial CFP rankings. There’s still an opportunity to climb, starting with a showdown at Georgia this Saturday and rival Texas A&M to close the regular season. Win out, and Texas is an obvious lock for the playoff and a possible SEC title game berth. Split those two, and it’s probably still enough.
No. 17 Georgia Tech (8-1): The Yellow Jackets need to focus on reaching the ACC title game before entertaining playoff dreams. With just one loss, they’re in solid position, but a looming Week 13 trip to face resurgent Pittsburgh could define their postseason hopes.
No. 8 BYU (8-1): The unbeaten run is over after getting out-physicaled in a potential Big 12 title game preview at Texas Tech. BYU now needs to win out to stay in the championship hunt – and take the lessons from Lubbock to heart if they want a different result should these teams meet again in December.
No. 12 Oklahoma (7-2): A season-saving win at Tennessee in Week 10 kept the Sooners in the playoff conversation, but they still need to win out to have a comfortable case. That means surviving a road test at Alabama this Saturday before hosting Missouri and LSU to close out the regular season.
Cincinnati (7-2): With BYU’s loss, the Bearcats now control their path to the Big 12 title game and the CFP. A head-to-head matchup with BYU in the middle of their final stretch will be critical, as a win there would give Cincinnati the tiebreaker advantage. They’ll also face Arizona before and TCU after.
🟡 Bumper-to-bumper
Alive, but their path is crowded, narrow or highly dependent on others
No. 16 Vanderbilt (8-2): Another Heisman Trophy-caliber performance by Diego Pavia in an overtime win against Auburn kept the Commodores’ slim CFP hopes alive. Winning the SEC is out of reach, but comfortable wins vs. Kentucky and at rival Tennessee could give Vanderbilt a shot at a solid résumé if teams ahead stumble.
No. 13 Utah (7-2): Texas Tech’s win against BYU complicated Utah’s path to the Big 12 title game, leaving the Utes with fewer favorable outcomes to secure a conference crown. Despite two conference losses, the selection committee clearly values Utah’s résumé, slotting it inside the top 15 of last week’s initial CFP rankings. The Utes now need to finish strong and hope for help elsewhere to maintain a viable playoff path.
No. 19 USC (7-2): Lincoln Riley and the Trojans have strung together three straight Big Ten wins for the first time since joining the conference, keeping their playoff pulse alive. To stay in contention, USC will need to keep that momentum rolling through a closing stretch – hosting Iowa, traveling to Oregon and finishing with crosstown rival UCLA – to build a strong enough case for the CFP committee.
SMU (7-3): The Mustangs won’t be in the at-large mix with three losses already, but with only one ACC blemish, they remain part of the crowded five-team logjam fighting for a spot in the conference title game. SMU gets a bye week before hosting Louisville.
No. 18 Miami (7-2): This is where the ACC picture gets even messier. Miami’s chances of reaching the conference title game are slim, needing plenty of chaos and some tiebreaker luck to sneak in. But if things break right elsewhere and the Hurricanes run the table, their résumé – with quality wins and strong metrics – could still be good enough to hang around the at-large conversation.
No. 14 Virginia (8-2): Time finally ran out on the Cardiac Cavaliers, who suffered their first ACC loss. The upcoming trip to Duke on Saturday is an obvious must-win if Virginia hopes to stay in the thick of the conference title and CFP race.
No. 21 Michigan (7-2): If the Big Ten is going to get a fourth team into the CFP again, Michigan might just be that representative. Barring a stumble on the road over the next two weeks, the Wolverines should host rival Ohio State in a potential win-and-in scenario. As past seasons have shown, it’s far from impossible.
No. 24 Pittsburgh (7-2): It’s fair to admit Pittsburgh looked out of the CFP race a month ago before the switch to quarterback Mason Heintschel. Since then, the Panthers have ripped off five straight wins but now face a brutal three-game gauntlet – Notre Dame, at Georgia Tech and Miami – that will reveal whether this late surge is truly sustainable.
Duke (5-4): How can a team without an FBS win outside its conference be in the mix? The Blue Devils have only one ACC loss, keeping them in the crowded, complicated race for the conference title game. The windy road continues against Virginia this Saturday.
**🔴 **Sitting on the shoulder
Technically alive, but path is long, risky or dependent entirely on outside chaos
ACC: No. 15 Louisville
Big 12: Arizona State, Houston
Big Ten: Illinois, No. 20 Iowa
SEC: No. 22 Missouri, No. 25 Tennessee
**⛔ **Out of the race
Effectively eliminated or realistically cannot make the playoff
ACC: Boston College, California, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
Big Ten: Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, No. 23 Washington, Wisconsin
SEC: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina