The college football polls will have one last update on Sunday before we officially shift into the College Football Playoff portion of the season with the selection committee offering its own top 25. That will begin this Tuesday, Nov. 4, and while the committee claims a process of independent thought, it’s hard to ignore the human element of those committee members knowing – and reacting to – the AP Top 25 poll.
Often, the two sets of rankings will agree, particularly when it comes to the very best teams in the country. A consensus of 60+ AP poll voters are going to deliver a pretty sensible order, and usually the loss column is the ultimate sorter. But since the selection committee has less people and more discussion among the group, it’s easier for an outlier opinion to become t…
The college football polls will have one last update on Sunday before we officially shift into the College Football Playoff portion of the season with the selection committee offering its own top 25. That will begin this Tuesday, Nov. 4, and while the committee claims a process of independent thought, it’s hard to ignore the human element of those committee members knowing – and reacting to – the AP Top 25 poll.
Often, the two sets of rankings will agree, particularly when it comes to the very best teams in the country. A consensus of 60+ AP poll voters are going to deliver a pretty sensible order, and usually the loss column is the ultimate sorter. But since the selection committee has less people and more discussion among the group, it’s easier for an outlier opinion to become the consensus. To that point, we’re looking not only to the new college football rankings wondering how the AP voters will react to the weekend’s results but also how the CFP committee might choose to over-rank or under-rank a team compared to the traditional polls.
One of those teams that will be very interesting to track is Texas, which improved to 7-2 on the season with a 34-31 win against top-10 Vanderbilt. Paired with a win against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, the Longhorns’ resume looks much better now and the losses are tougher to weigh since Ohio State is the No. 1 team in the country and Florida is unranked. We are projecting that Texas is going to take a notable jump up into the top 15, but there is about a nine-spot range of realistic outcomes from the CFP Selection Committee.
Other teams to watch both in the new AP poll and the CFP rankings on Tuesday include Miami, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame. The Hurricanes are certainly dropping after their loss at SMU, and while we are projecting they will remain in the top 25, the committee could send a message in regard to their chances to get an at-large bid. Georgia Tech has a complicated resume, as well, with an impressive number of overall wins (8), but how many of those are going to be of the “quality” variety in the eyes of the committee? And of course there’s Notre Dame, the best two-loss team in the country who continues to climb but saw its resume take a hit with the aforementioned Miami loss.
Once the first CFP Rankings are released, it will begin a bit of a cat-and-mouse game with the AP poll when it comes to these controversially ranked teams. But, for now, the AP voters have first say in the conversation with what the college football world looks like heading into the final month of the regular season.
Here’s how we think the new AP Top 25 will look on Sunday after Week 10:
Projected top 25 rankings after Week 10
1. Ohio State (Last week — 1): The momentum behind Julian Sayin continues to build as the Buckeyes’ quarterback put on a stellar display (20-for-23, 316 yards, 4 TDs) in a 38-14 win against Penn State. The Buckeyes may see challengers for the top spot, but it’s unlikely they will be unseated without a loss as long as they continue to show title contending form on a weekly basis.
2. Indiana (2): The Hoosiers absolutely walloped Maryland on Saturday, rolling up a 55-10 final score that included 367 yards of rushing offense. These lopsided results do help build Indiana’s case as the No. 1 team in the country, but we’re not projecting a move to overtake Ohio State just yet.
3. Texas A&M (3): The Aggies were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week at Missouri.
4. Alabama (4): The Crimson Tide were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week against LSU in the Tigers’ first game after firing Brian Kelly.
5. Georgia (5): A key fourth-down stop in the fourth quarter helped Georgia avoid a costly loss at the hands of rival Florida, as the Bulldogs can add this 24-20 win to the list of clutch wins here in the 2025 season. Victories against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Florida have all come by narrow, single-digit margins with Georgia getting different players to step up to make winning plays. Voters aren’t likely to make many adjustments given the head-to-head result against Alabama, but the Bulldogs should count Saturday as a win maintaining their status as one of the top one-loss teams in the country.
**6. Oregon (6): **The Ducks were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week with a road test at Iowa.
7. Ole Miss (7): The Rebels will continue to cut into Oregon’s advantage as a top-six team, but they are unlikely to jump the Ducks after a 30-14 win against South Carolina that will meet expectations for most voters.
8. BYU (10): The Cougars were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week at Texas Tech.
9. Notre Dame (12): It’s going to be tough to close a pretty sizable gap between Notre Dame and BYU with just a 25-10 win at Boston College. Jeremiyah Love was electric in the win, and the Fighting Irish were rarely threatened, but the Cougars’ undefeated record serves as a stiff ceiling for any moves up in the rankings.
**10. Texas Tech (13): **Joey McGuire’s squad showed impressive resilience after an inconsistent start at Kansas State, grabbing control of a close game in the second half and pulling away for a 43-20 win that has the Red Raiders at 8-1 on the season. Next week’s date with BYU will provide the best avenue to securing a spot in the Big 12 title game, as every tiebreaker advantage will be huge, but it’s also the last chance to log a signature win in the regular season for Texas Tech’s potential College Football Playoff resume.
**11. Texas (20): **We are projecting that the Longhorns not only move up in the order among two-loss teams but even jump some one-loss teams in the rankings following the win against top-10 Vanderbilt. If the AP voters liked the Commodores enough to have them in their highest-ever post in the rankings then Texas will likely get a bump from the performance that included a 24-point lead heading into the fourth quarter.
12. Oklahoma (18): The Sooners are set for a bump up in the rankings after handing Tennessee a home loss under the lights. The head-to-head loss against Texas serves as a convenient rankings target for voters looking to reward Brent Venables’ squad, which improved to 7-2 on the year.
13. Virginia (15): A late defensive score helped flip a one-score upset alert into a double-digit win for Virginia, who improved to 8-1 with a win at Cal. The Wahoos have now won seven games in a row, marking the longest winning streak since 2007 and the first time since 1990 they have hit the 8-1 mark.
14. Louisville (16): Like Virginia, Louisville was able to do its part as a ranked ACC team playing on the road while others faltered. But it was not easy, as Virginia Tech carried a nine-point lead into halftime following a sub-standard offensive start for the Cardinals. Luckily, halftime adjustments paid off and Louisville outscored the Hokies 21-0 in the second half to pull away for a double-digit win.
15. Miami (10): As a one-loss team, Miami’s fall from the top of the rankings was bolstered by an impressive head-to-head win against Notre Dame. But after losing at SMU in overtime, the Hurricanes are going to fall behind the Fighting Irish, as this marks the second time in three games that Mario Cristobal’s team has fallen well short of pregame expectations. We are projecting that Miami is now more closely tied to the Louisville team that won in Hard Rock Stadium two weeks ago, which is much further down than the Hurricanes were hoping to be heading into the first College Football Playoff Rankings release.
16. Cincinnati (17): The Bearcats are currently in action at Utah.
17. Vanderbilt (9): Finding a spot to put Vanderbilt after the loss to Texas should be easy for many voters, since the two-loss Commodores have a head-to-head advantage against a two-loss Missouri team that should be mostly steady given the Tigers were off this week. Vanderbilt may have a tight rope to walk as it pertains to an at-large resume for the College Football Playoff, but their top-25 status is not in jeopardy after the loss.
18. Missouri (19): The Tigers were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week, at home, against top-five Texas A&M.
19. Georgia Tech (8): The issue for Georgia Tech is that the Yellow Jackets’ initial surge in the rankings came on the back of a Clemson win that is not holding as much weight as we get into November. A 48-36 loss at NC State now puts the Yellow Jackets under a different level of scrutiny for voters judging these resumes, and there’s just not a lot of high-end wins to compare with other one-loss and two-loss teams.
20. USC (23): Now at 6-2 with a road win at Nebraska, USC should be positioned to have AP voters correct the head-to-head disparity of the Trojans being ranked behind a Michigan team that it beat earlier this season in Los Angeles. The Trojans did not dominate the Cornhuskers, but the 21-17 victory gives Lincoln Riley a win on the road in conference play, and those have been hard to come by in the last two years.
21. Michigan (21): A 21-16 home win against Purdue is not going to cement Michigan’s status as a top team in the minds of the voters, but with so much other chaos around the Wolverines in the rankings, they are unlikely to see much of an adjustment.
22. Utah (24): The Utes are currently in action against Cincinnati.
23. Memphis (25): An early 21-0 lead helped prevent any concern about a letdown following last week’s comeback win against South Florida. The Tigers cruised to a 38-14 win at Rice on Friday night and are poised to hang on to their spot inside the top 25.
24. Washington (NR): The 6-2 Huskies were off in Week 10 but did finish 28th in voting points after an impressive win against Illinois in Week 9. With No. 22, No. 26 and No. 27 losing this week, the door has opened up for more voters to join those who had Washington on the ballot last week and get Jedd Fisch’s squad up into the top 25.
25. Tennessee (14): We haven’t had a three-loss team in the top 25 yet this season, but Tennessee has a chance for that “honor” after falling to Oklahoma at home on Saturday night. There are other teams like Iowa, South Florida or even San Diego State who have fair claims to breaking into the rankings, but if voters are hesitant to over-punish the Vols for a competitive ranked win we could see Tennessee show up on enough ballots to avoid falling all the way out of the top 25.
Projected to drop out*: No. 22 Houston *