The NBA season is two weeks old, which means we have just enough data to start looking at some trends. As everyone expected, the Chicago Bulls have the best record in the Eastern Conference, while the New Orleans Pelicans with a rejuvenated Zion Williamson have won just one game, which came without Williamson who is now injured... again. Free throw attempts are on the rise and so are injuries as several star players like Trae Young are already sidelined.
With the season in full swing, let’s take a look at som…
The NBA season is two weeks old, which means we have just enough data to start looking at some trends. As everyone expected, the Chicago Bulls have the best record in the Eastern Conference, while the New Orleans Pelicans with a rejuvenated Zion Williamson have won just one game, which came without Williamson who is now injured... again. Free throw attempts are on the rise and so are injuries as several star players like Trae Young are already sidelined.
With the season in full swing, let’s take a look at some early trends and see what’s working and what isn’t in this edition of NBA Buy or Sell.
Sell: Ja Morant will be on the Grizzlies by season end
The relationship between Morant and the Grizzlies has been the focal point of the NBA for the last week. The Grizzlies suspended Morant for “conduct detrimental to the team,” after he reportedly got into a heated argument with first-year coach Tuomas Iisalo, following Memphis’ loss to the Lakers in which they blew a 15-point lead. The context to the situation is that Morant has been frustrated by the rotations Iisalo has deployed this season.
“I have a lot of understanding for players who say this,” Iisalo said. “I think a lot of players have been conditioned throughout their career to play longer stints and to go find that rhythm. ... Basketball just like every global team sport is evolving. We are looking to also adapt to the times.”
Morant’s said that he’s lost his joy while playing basketball this season, which certainly isn’t the type of headlines you want just two weeks into the season.
Reported drama aside, the on-court results haven’t been much better, either. The Grizzlies have a 3-4 record, with an offense that ranks 24th and defense that isn’t much better at 22nd in the league. Injuries have certainly impacted that, with Brandon Clarke, Zach Edey, Ty Jerome, Scottie Pippen Jr. all expected to miss significant time, but you’d think with all those absences we’d get inflated performances from the franchise’s two stars. Instead, both Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. are averaging the fewest points since their second year in the league. Morant’s efficiency is on pace to be the worst of his career, as he’s currently 5 of 32 on 3-point attempts so far, and shooting just 40.6% from the field.
With the rising tension, coupled with Morant’s history of bringing unwanted attention to him and the team, it’s fair to wonder if it’s time for the Grizzlies to move on from the athletic guard. It’s not just the off-court drama, either, he’s struggled to stay healthy over each of the last two seasons, prompting questions of his long-term durability. It’s one thing to have off-court baggage that can be forgotten about as soon as you step on the floor and quiet doubters by your performance. But since declaring he and the Grizzlies are “fine in the West,” and downplaying the competition in the West, Morant’s performance has been on a downward trajectory.
It’s still early in the season, and perhaps this one-game suspension will be the wake-up call needed for Morant and the Grizzlies. But if this cycle continues, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Morant’s name circulated in trade rumors come February.
Buy: Victor Wembanyama will win MVP and DPOY this season
Wembanyama’s third season is off to a start that is unlike anything we’ve seen before. It’s not just the raw numbers he’s putting up, it’s the development we’ve seen from him that is putting the rest of the league on notice. He’s far more assertive in attacking the rim, and has definitively decided that it doesn’t matter who is in front of him, he’s going to barrel into the paint and showcase his skills. As a result, his 3-point attempts have dropped from 8.8 per game a season ago to 3.5, confirming that he’s done settling for 3s when he can have his way getting downhill. He’s already thrown down 22 dunks this season, which averages out to about 3.6 a game, and if he keeps that pace he’ll be in line to become just the second player in NBA history to record 300 dunks in a season, joining fellow Frenchman Rudy Gobert.
The aggressiveness in getting to the rim is also helping Wembanyama get more points at the free throw line. His attempts have doubled from last season, jumping from 4.1 per game to eight a night. He’s taking guys off the dribble far more, regardless of their size. He’s either exploiting bigger, slower-footed defenders, or using his height and added strength to disregard smaller wings who, despite best efforts can’t impact his shot once he elevates. In the six games he’s played, there’s only been one stinker, thanks to a committed effort from the Phoenix Suns that had at the very least two, sometimes three defenders on Wemby to avoid getting put on his ever-growing highlight reel. That nine-point outing from Wembanyama coincided with San Antonio’s only loss of the season, as they got out to the first 5-0 start in franchise history before the loss to the Suns.
Phoenix’s plan of switching everything on Wemby, sending help defense and basically ignoring his teammates as offensive threats might be a way to slow the generational star down, but as teams deploy that method more, Wembanyama will adjust. He’s already making better reads to find open teammates this season, and as his teammates convert on those open opportunities made possible by all the defensive attention Wembanyama is attracting, teams won’t be able to sell out on their defensive schemes.
There hasn’t been a player so far this season that has been as dominant as Wembanyama has been offensively, and defensively, his presence alone is resulting in opponents not even attempting to come in the paint when he’s on the floor. The Spurs allow the second fewest points in the paint (39.7) because of Wembanyama, who can impact a shot away from the basket just as much as he can when he’s lurking under the rim. His defended field goal percentage of 39.6% ranks second in the league, as he’s already become an impenetrable force to score on.
We’re only two weeks into the season, but Wembanyama already feels like the frontrunner for MVP and DPOY. And if the Spurs exceed expectations by securing a playoff spot – especially a top-6 spot – then he would certainly have the narrative on his side. At this point, the only thing that would stop it from happening would be if Wembanyama didn’t meet the 65-games played minimum.
Buy: Sixers don’t have to live and die by Joel Embiid’s avaliability
The Sixers are out to a 5-2 start, and Embiid is averaging a career low in points (17.3). He’s on a minutes restriction and will likely never play back-to-back games again, all by design as Philadelphia protects its star big man from re-injury. In years past, the Sixers success would hinge on Embiid’s avaliabiliy. The offense would fall off a cliff when he was off the floor, the best example of that was during the 2020-21 season when the Sixers finished atop the Eastern Conference. That year, when Embiid was on the floor, Philadelphia averaged 10.4 points per 100 possessions more than when he sat. That ranked in the 97th percentile, as only seven other players were more important to their teams offensively.
Embiid’s routinely ranked that high since he’s reached superstar status in this league, but this season has been different. The Sixers are not only winning without Embiid being the primary engine on offense, they’ve been better when he’s* not* on the floor. It’s not a significant amount, just 2.6 points per 100 possessions better when he sits, but it suggests that Philadelphia doesn’t have to wave the white flag every time Embiid misses a game due to load management or is on a minutes restriction as he is right now.
The reason for that change has been because of the Sixers’ backcourt depth. Tyrese Maxey has been the head of the snake this season, as his 34.4 points per game ranks second in the league. He’s averaging a career high in points and assists (8.4), is leading the league in minutes played (42.0) second in shots taken (23.1), and is shooting the ball from beyond the arc better than he ever has (48.5%). Maxey’s been the star on the team, but he’s been helped significantly by a stable of other guards on the roster who are more than accounting for Embiid’s absence when he’s not on the floor.
Rookie VJ Edgecombe specifically has gotten out to a unbelievable start. He’s leading all rookies in points (19.1), assists (4.9) and is for third in rebounds (4.9). He’s exceeded expectations in every way, showing no hesitation in looking for his own shot and being aggressive, while not forcing things and making bad decisions in the process. The combination of him and Maxey in the backcourt allows the Sixers to play faster and get out in transition more, which is where Edgecombe really thrives.
Edgecombe’s immediate impact, combined with Quentin Grimes continued scoring outburst off the bench which has made him a prime candidate for Sixth Man of the Year has made it so that the Sixers are never without a bonafide bucket on the floor. And that’s not even mentioning Jared McCain, who made his season debut Tuesday night against the Bulls. Before McCain went down with a season-ending meniscus tear last December, he was well on his way to win Rookie of the Year. His scoring and playmaking will give Nick Nurse even more depth in the backcourt and allow Maxey to shave off some of those heavy minutes he’s been playing to start the season.
This isn’t to say that the Sixers can completely do without Embiid, because without his defense and presence in the post, Philadelphia is allowing the most second chance points (19.3). But it does mean that life isn’t as difficult when he’s not playing, and the success of the team doesn’t hinge on his performance as much.
Sell: The Bulls’ success isn’t sustainable
The Bulls have been one of the biggest surprises of the season. They’re out to a 6-1 start, which is the best record in the Eastern Conference after a 24-point comeback against the Sixers on Tuesday. It’s a breath of fresh air for Bulls fans who have watched countless middling teams that are never good enough to seriously contend in the East, but perform just well enough that keeps them from landing a high enough pick in the draft that could drastically change the future of this franchise. The Bulls should be lauded for their effort to start the season, all while Coby White has yet to make his debut this season. Josh Giddey looks right at home in Chicago’s offense, Nikola Vučević continues to provide veteran leadership on a steady 20 and 10 diet, and Matas Buzelis is having the kind of breakout season that are making many believe he should’ve been at the very least a top-5 draft pick in 2024.
Chicago has six guys scoring in double figures, with a bench unit that ranks third in scoring. Giddey and Vucevic have been leading the way, but it’s truly been a team effort every night out for the Bulls. And it’s not as though these are coming against weak teams, either. Chicago’s first three wins came against Detroit, Orlando and Atlanta, three teams that were expected to be on the rise this season. They split a pair of games with a Knicks team that has championship expectations, after easily dispatching a Kings team that is looking like the subpar Bulls teams of the past.
The last win was by far the most impressive. The aforementioned 24-point comeback win against the 76ers who were 5-1 entering the contest. After a horrendous first half that allowed Maxey to rack up 22 first-half points, the Bulls responded in the second half by tightening up on defense and getting points from practically everyone. It was a go-ahead 3-pointer by Vučević in the closing seconds of the fourth quarter that sealed the win for the Bulls, and perhaps earned them more respect around the league. All of this, again, came without White and Ayo Dosunmu, the latter of whom has been the third leading scorer for Chicago.
It’s fair to wonder if this success is sustainable, but it’s not as if the Bulls are performing at unrealistic levels. In many ways this is exactly what we should expect from a Bulls team that employs a jumbo guard with elite passing skills and improved 3-point shot, a stable of athletes who can get up and down the floor and a stretch big who doesn’t clog the paint for the likes of Giddey to drive and kick it out to the perimeter. That doesn’t mean the Bulls will go 81-1, because regression will happen naturally as players go through slumps and as the schedule gets tougher. Chicago is by no means this unbeatable force.
But the Bulls look like a far more functional team than in years past on both ends of the floor. It’s to early to talk playoff predictions, but two weeks into the season the Bulls look like what we though the Orlando Magic would look like this season.
Buy: Austin Reaves will be an All Star this season
It would’ve been surprising if Reaves didn’t enter this season with the goal of putting up massive numbers as he’s playing for a new contract next summer. He’s certainly ensured that the Lakers will have to fork over several Brinks trucks worth of money to keep him in Los Angeles after averaging 31.1 points and nearly 10 assists through the first two weeks of the season. We’ll have to see if this production is sustainable from him, but if it is, then there’s no doubt he’s deserving of an All-Star selection, especially if the Lakers are near the top of the West standings when voting opens.
He’s already put up a 50-point and 40-point performance, both of which have been absolutely necessary with LeBron James and Luka Dončić both out. He also drilled a game-winning buzzer beater in a 128-110 win against the Timberwolves.
Certainly Reaves isn’t going to be putting up absurd regularly, but this is exactly what the Lakers need to see from him after a poor showing in the playoffs a season ago where he struggled to find rhythm in L.A.’s first-round playoff loss. He’s taking the most shots of his career and isn’t losing efficiency. He’s become the ideal secondary playmaker next to Dončić in the backcourt and has already showed he can shoulder quite a bit if Dončić and James are both out.
It won’t be easy, as the new format consists of two USA teams and one World team, which will essentially limit the number of American players for the event. So the question becomes, will Reaves be one of the 16 best American players come All-Star voting time? If you take out the international players, Reaves is averaging the second-most points by an American player behind Maxey. The production will regress a bit, and he’ll have tons of competition in the backcourt to earn one of those 16 spots. But as long as James’ timeline for return is still up in the air, the Lakers will need Reaves to continue performing at this level to keep winning. If he does, it’ll be pretty difficult to deny him of an All-Star appearance.