As global leaders prepare to converge on Belém, Brazil, for the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) from November 10–21, 2025, the world stands at a crucial turning point.

A decade after the Paris Agreement, the ambition to limit global warming to 1.5°C is slipping out of reach. Major economies remain divided, climate finance pledges are largely unmet, and fossil fuel dependence continues to rise—all while the planet faces record-breaking heatwaves, floods, and mounting economic losses.

For developing nations like Bangladesh, which have contributed the least to the crisis but suffer the most from its consequences, COP30 represents both a plea for justice and a test of whether the global climate system still holds meaning.

Belém will host delegates from nearly 200 countries, but optimism is in short supply. In the United States, President Donald Trump has vowed to withdraw once again from the Paris Agreement—a move many experts say would cripple global cooperation.

Across the Atlantic, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to reaffirm Britain’s commitment to its net-zero targets, with Prince William joining the British delegation to underscore the importance of climate diplomacy.

Meanwhile, China—the world’s largest emitter—is sending a strong negotiating team, though President Xi Jinping is unlikely to attend in person. His absence, alongside Trump’s stance, reflects a fractured geopolitical landscape at a time when global unity is most needed.

Adding to the tension, hundreds of fossil fuel lobbyists have registered for the conference, drawing sharp criticism from environmental groups who accuse the COP process of being captured by corporate interests.

Core battles: Fossil fuels, finance, forests, and biodiversity

Brazil’s government, led by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, hopes to use the Amazonian backdrop to revive confidence in climate diplomacy and advance unfinished agendas from previous summits. Brazil is also championing the Tropical Forests Forever Facility—a fund designed to reward countries that protect rainforests.

The key battle will center on whether the world commits to a clear timeline for phasing out fossil fuels. While COP28 in Dubai saw nations agree to “transition away” from coal, oil, and gas, developing countries argue that the phrase lacked substance. Vulnerable nations are now demanding firm deadlines and accountability mechanisms.

Climate finance reality check

At COP29, wealthy nations promised at least USD 300 billion annually by 2035, with aspirations to mobilize USD 1.3 trillion from public and private sources. But according to OECD data, less than 20% of pledged funds have materialized—and much of it in the form of loans rather than grants.

“Without real money on the table, these promises mean little to the people losing homes and livelihoods every day,” said an environmental policy analyst in Dhaka.

Delegates will revisit the pledge to triple renewable energy capacity and expand just transition initiatives by 2030—a target now seen as critical to keeping global temperature rise below catastrophic levels. However, critics question Brazil’s credibility given its recent approval of new oil exploration projects in the Amazon Basin.

Geopolitical shadows and climate fatigue

The summit takes place amid deepening global instability—wars in Europe and the Middle East, and economic slowdowns across the Global South—that have disrupted international cooperation.

The collapse of talks on a global plastics treaty and delays in maritime emissions negotiations have further eroded confidence in multilateral climate action.

Still, some diplomats argue that the COP process, however imperfect, remains the only global platform where climate-vulnerable nations can make their voices heard.

Bangladesh: Leading the fight, facing the cost

For Bangladesh, COP30 is more than a diplomatic event—it is a fight for survival. Despite contributing less than 0.5% to global carbon emissions, Bangladesh ranks among the most climate-vulnerable nations on Earth. It spends around 7.5% of its national budget on climate resilience, mostly from domestic funds, according to the Economic Relations Division (ERD).

At Belém, Dhaka will advocate four key priorities:

1. Loss and Damage Fund Access — Direct, unconditional access to the global fund established in 2023, preferably as grants rather than loans.
2. Adaptation Financing — A demand that 50% of all climate finance be earmarked for adaptation in vulnerable nations.
3. Green Technology Transfer — Partnerships to scale up solar, wind, and green industrial projects under Bangladesh’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
4. Recognition of Climate Migration — International recognition of climate-induced displacement as a humanitarian issue requiring a coordinated global response.

BRAC University Professor Emeritus Dr Ainun Nishat said: “Countries across the world are heading to COP30 with their own national agendas. We, too, must clearly define what Bangladesh wants to achieve from this conference.”