Kevin PeltonNov 11, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
During the first month of the NBA season, it’s difficult to separate real trends from ones that won’t persist through an 82-game regular season. This time a year ago, the Phoenix Suns were one of the league’s hottest starters with an 8-2 record. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks started 2-8, putting them thr…
Kevin PeltonNov 11, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
- Co-author, Pro Basketball Prospectus series
- Formerly a consultant with the Indiana Pacers
- Developed WARP rating and SCHOENE system
During the first month of the NBA season, it’s difficult to separate real trends from ones that won’t persist through an 82-game regular season. This time a year ago, the Phoenix Suns were one of the league’s hottest starters with an 8-2 record. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks started 2-8, putting them three wins behind the Brooklyn Nets in the East standings.
Those fluke starts shouldn’t cause us to ignore everything that happens early in a season. After all, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ undefeated start last season and the Houston Rockets going from the lottery to near the top of the West standings proved to be lasting indicators.
Not all unexpected performances are created equal, and looking closely at factors that tend to be more stable (like shot quality) and those that tend to change rapidly (like shot making) can help us determine what’s real and what’s cubic zirconia.
With that in mind, let’s investigate six early trends – including the fast-starting Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons, the Rockets and Dallas Mavericks at opposite ends of the offensive spectrum and Ajay Mitchell’s breakout second season – to issue verdicts on whether they will continue.
Jump to a trend: Pistons best in the East? Bulls are Back Houston doesn’t miss VanVleet’s offense Mavs can’t score Ajay Mitchell surges Free throw attempts remain high
The Detroit Pistons are the East’s best team
A six-game winning streak has propelled Detroit to the top of the East standings. The Pistons can’t realistically jump as much as last season, when they improved by 30 wins and won a playoff game for the first time since 2009, but another step forward without veteran guard Malik Beasley would cement Detroit’s young core as a long-term power in the East.
Verdict: Real, and spectacular
Although Cade Cunningham (25.6 PPG, 9.8 APG) and Jalen Duren (a career-high 19.4 PPG, up from 11.8 last season) are putting up gaudy offensive stats, the Pistons’ success has been built on the defensive end, ranking fourth** **in defensive rating.
Those results are matched by the underlying process. Only the Oklahoma City Thunder are forcing harder shots than the Pistons based on GeniusIQ’s quantified shot probability metric. Quantified shot probability seeks to estimate the eFG% we’d expect based on the location of a shot, the type of shot and the distance of nearby defenders, as well as player ability.
Detroit is allowing the fourth-fewest shots per 100 possessions inside the restricted area around the basket, per GeniusIQ, and holding opponents to the league’s lowest accuracy on them (55.7%). Keeping that up might be difficult given that no team allowed less than 63.6% last year, but the Pistons can survive some defensive regression and still stay near the top of the East. After all, Detroit is actually underperforming its shot quality on offense, where Tobias Harris is shooting an effective 45.1%, down from 53% a year ago.
The track record of teams taking a step back after improving as much as the Pistons did last season was one reason my stats-based projections were relatively low on them entering this season.
Historically, teams that have beaten their over/under win total by at least 15 games (Detroit was a whopping 18.5 games better) have dropped off by an average of four wins the following season since 2000. However, the most recent two teams to qualify (the 2021-22 Cavaliers and 2022-23 Thunder) both improved again, so it may be time to rethink this conventional wisdom.
Da Chicago Bulls are back
After dealing away Zach LaVine before the 2025 deadline, the Bulls were afterthoughts entering this season. Chicago’s over/under win total of 34.5 wins on ESPN BET was the eighth lowest in the league. Yet the Bulls were the last unbeaten East team, starting 5-0. Might Chicago be an improbable contender?
**Verdict: Not real **
Alas, a quick look under the hood revealed the Bulls’ start wasn’t sustainable. Through the season’s first seven games, Chicago had pulled off the improbable double of outperforming their expected shooting more than any other team based on quantified shot probability while simultaneously seeing the most underperformance by opponent shooters.
Accounting for player ability is key to evaluating shots on offense, where a Josh Giddey catch-and-shoot 3 is not as valuable as one for Stephen Curry, despite Giddey shooting a better percentage from beyond the arc this season (38.5%).
Weighted by their attempts this season, based on career 3-point percentages, we’d expect the Bulls to be shooting 35.5% beyond the arc. Instead, they’re actually at 39.7%. During Chicago’s 5-0 start, opponents shot just 30% on 3s. Since then, teams have shot a sizzling 41% as the Bulls have come back to Earth with three losses in their past four games.
Chicago banked early wins without starting guard Coby White, who has yet to play because of a calf strain. Still, the Bulls’ ceiling hasn’t changed the way the standings from one week ago might have suggested.
The Houston Rockets don’t miss Fred VanVleet’s offense
Playing without a traditional point guard after starter Fred VanVleet suffered a season-ending ACL tear before training camp, the Rockets nonetheless boast the NBA’s best offensive rating at 121.7 points per 100 possessions, nearly seven more than they averaged last season while finishing second in the West.
Going back to weighted career 3-point percentage, Houston has outperformed this mark by more than any team in the league. The Rockets’ shooters have a weighted career mark of 34%, third lowest in the NBA. Yet Houston’s 43% 3-point shooting is easily tops.
play
1:14
Houston Rockets vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Game Highlights
Houston Rockets vs. Milwaukee Bucks: Game Highlights
**Verdict: Largely not real **
Encouragingly, the Rockets aren’t beating their overall shot quality by nearly as much as Chicago. Inside the arc, Houston has probably been unlucky in the early going. Amen Thompson’s 2-point percentage is down from 60% to 53%, while Kevin Durant is hitting just 52% of his 2s after hitting 57% a year ago.
Beyond that, the Rockets don’t need to shoot well to succeed on offense. They again lead the NBA by securing 37% of available offensive rebounds, with no other team north of 33%. Adding Durant has helped Houston secure the NBA’s fourth-best free throw rate. So even without VanVleet, they look like an improved offense this season, albeit not to the degree we’ve seen thus far.
The Dallas Mavericks can’t score
We expected Dallas to have some challenges on offense before Kyrie Irving returns from his own ACL tear, particularly after coach Jason Kidd decided to use No. 1 draft pick Cooper Flagg out of position at point guard to begin the season. But nobody would have anticipated the Mavericks ranking as the league’s second-worst offense three weeks in, more than seven points per 100 possessions behind the rebuilding Brooklyn Nets.
Dallas has been more competent with veteran D’Angelo Russell at the point. Lineups with Russell have ranked in the 15th percentile league-wide offensively, per Cleaning the Glass, as compared to the third percentile without him. Of course, the Mavericks’ loss in Russell’s first start on Wednesday to the lowly New Orleans Pelicans was a reminder he’s not an offensive panacea.
Verdict: Troublingly real until Irving returns
GeniusIQ’s metric shows Dallas underperforming its expected shot quality by the third-highest rate in the league. And unlike the Rockets, the Mavericks don’t compensate with second chances. Despite the team’s giant lineups, Dallas is securing just** **24.7% of offensive rebounds.
Starting Russell should at least help the Mavericks avoid costly turnovers. Lineups with neither Russell nor backup point guard Brandon Williams are coughing the ball up 20% of the time, per Cleaning the Glass. Experimenting with a teenager who has never played point guard in meaningful games is particularly difficult with opposing teams ramping up their ball pressure in the wake of last year’s playoffs.
Still, real offensive success isn’t in the cards until they get Irving back. He has shot an effective 57% during his time in Dallas, which is far more efficient than Russell, whose career mark of 51% has trended below that in the past two seasons.
Ajay Mitchell is the latest Oklahoma City Thunder find
With Oklahoma City star Jalen Williams sidelined following wrist surgery and a subsequent procedure to remove a screw from the wrist, the Thunder have relied heavily on second-year guard Ajay Mitchell. Initially on a two-way contract as a second-round pick, Mitchell contributed as a rookie, but he has increased his scoring average by double digits to 17.2 PPG over the season’s first 11 games.
There’s nothing obviously fluky in Mitchell’s stat line. His biggest improvement has been a massive jump in usage rate from 16% as a rookie to 26%, second among Oklahoma City players behind MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
**Verdict: Real as long as the ball is in Mitchell’s hands **
Williams’ eventual return will inevitably change Mitchell’s role. He has held the ball approximately 30% of the time he has been on offense this season, per analysis of data from NBA Advanced Stats, as compared to 23% last year. Playing an off-ball role alongside Williams with the Thunder’s second unit when Gilgeous-Alexander rests, Mitchell will get less opportunity as a creator, and his 3-point shooting will be magnified.
The upside for Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault is that Mitchell’s emergence may allow him to rest Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams simultaneously rather than needing to keep one of them on the court in competitive situations. That could help manage their minutes and keep them fresh for the postseason while also giving Mitchell a chance to shine.
Free throw attempts remain high
I wrote about this trend a week into the season, and while the raw numbers have come down a bit, there’s also more evidence this is a real trend with a couple of additional weeks of data. Through the first 20 days of the season, teams were averaging 26 free throw attempts per game, nearly three more than the 2024-25 average at this stage and the highest at this point since 2006-07.
Verdict: Real, right up until it isn’t
What’s fascinating about this trend is that there was no reason to expect increased whistles this season. Players, coaches and fans seemed to appreciate the league’s change midway through the 2023-24 season to allow more contact in response to record-setting levels of offense.
The NBA’s officiating points of emphasis during the preseason did not indicate any crackdowns, focusing primarily on post-shot contact against jump shooters. However, non-shooting fouls are actually up more compared to the full 2024-25 season (a 25% increase) than shooting fouls (up 15%). So that doesn’t seem to be the explanation.
Increased ball pressure – as teams emulate the success the Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves had in last season’s playoffs – appears to explain some of the increase in non-shooting fouls. At the same time, even teams that have decreased their pressure rates are being called for more non-shooting fouls, which points to a change in how the game is being officiated
Although the free throw rate is no fluke, it’s also more challenging to predict how things will play out as teams and players continue adjusting and the league responds to feedback. Because of those factors, I’d still bet against so many foul shots going forward.