Maybe we are all frogs in a soon to be boiling pot of water when it comes to pushing AI toward becoming AGI.

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In today’s column, I examine an intriguing premonition that humankind will be subjected to the proverbial boiling frog theory during our journey from conventional AI to the vaunted attainment of AGI (artificial general intelligence). The gist is said to be this. We are going to get closer and closer to AGI on a gradual stepwise basis and won’t realize that we are heading toward our ultimate doom. The subtle incremental steps will fool us into not recognizing that we are in a lot of trouble and ought to ditch the AGI pathway.

We will get cooked just like an oblivious frog in a pot of boiling water.

Let’s talk about it.

This analysis of an innovative AI breakthrough is part of my ongoing Forbes column coverage on the latest in AI, including identifying and explaining various impactful AI complexities (see the link here).

Heading Toward AGI And ASI

First, some fundamentals are required to set the stage for this weighty discussion.

There is a great deal of research going on to further advance AI. The general goal is to either reach artificial general intelligence (AGI) or maybe even the outstretched possibility of achieving artificial superintelligence (ASI).

AGI is AI that is considered on par with human intellect and can seemingly match our intelligence. ASI is AI that has gone beyond human intellect and would be superior in many if not all feasible ways. The idea is that ASI would be able to run circles around humans by outthinking us at every turn. For more details on the nature of conventional AI versus AGI and ASI, see my analysis at the link here.

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We have not yet attained AGI.

In fact, it is unknown as to whether we will reach AGI, or that maybe AGI will be achievable in decades or perhaps centuries from now. The AGI attainment dates that are floating around are wildly varying and wildly unsubstantiated by any credible evidence or ironclad logic. ASI is even more beyond the pale when it comes to where we are currently with conventional AI.

Boiling Frog Theory Comes Clean

I’m guessing that you might have vaguely heard about or somehow know of the boiling frog theory. It is a popular way to forewarn someone about falling into a trap that lures you in and makes it difficult for you to know that you are in deep trouble. In the list of commonly used metaphors, the boiling frog has got to be somewhere near the top.

Did you realize that the boiling frog metaphor got its start in the late 1800s?

It turns out that scientists in the 1870s were trying to figure out where the soul resides in humans. Since it is difficult to perform intrusive experiments on humans, the next best thing was to do so with frogs. Perhaps you did a dissection of a frog when you were in middle school and taking a biology class. Nowadays, the same effort is typically done via an online capability so that the students do a digital dissection rather than cutting into an actual deceased frog.

Those scientists in the late 1800s came up with an experiment involving placing a frog into a pot of water. The pot was essentially on a stove or similar heating device. The temperature of the water was at first at normal room temperature. The stove was switched on and the water began to heat up. Sometimes, the frog would jump out before the water fully got boiling, other times the frog would not jump out and ergo die from the boiling heat.

All manner of akin experiments began to be undertaken. A rash of frog boiling attempts became popular. In some instances, the brain of the frog was removed before the boiling process. Why so? The aim was to ascertain whether the soul was in the brain or elsewhere in the body of the frog.

The hope was that these varied experiments might reveal where the soul resides in humans.

Frogs Turn Into Lore

A wide range of frog boiling experiments were done over and over again, generally lessening in popularity by the 1890s. Part of the problem was that a multitude of factors confounded the experimental results. How fast is the heat allowed to rise? What was the starting temperature for the experiment? Did the frog have ample freedom to escape or was it partially trapped? Was the frog entirely biologically intact or was it already operated on? How much water was in the pot? How big was the frog? And so on.

As noted, the results were generally inconclusive, namely that sometimes a frog would jump out in time, while in other experimental setups, it would not. The contradiction of these outcomes seemed to eventually put cold water on the whole line of scientific inquiry (pun!).

Despite the contradictory results, society still loves to cling to the assumption that a frog in boiling water won’t realize it needs to escape. Period, end of story.

The metaphor seems to have become lore. You see, we culturally cannot resist the powerful imagery, along with the easy-to-express proclaimed lesson learned associated with those heroic and fateful frogs. Whatever you do in life, be on the watch that you can be amid a process that is ultimately really bad for you, but you won’t notice this along the way.

Be forewarned!

AGI And The Boiling Frog

Now that we’ve established the basis and meaning of the boiling frog theory, let’s go ahead and see how it applies to the pursuit of AGI.

The rundown is straightforward. First, assume that AGI is going to end up destroying humanity. We don’t realize that this is our fate. All kinds of debate about AGI will muddy the waters and we will be unsure of what is going to happen once we attain AGI.

Those who believe AGI will cure cancer and solve big-time world problems will be insisting that AGI is going to be a godsend. Meanwhile, others will be warning that AGI is going to enslave humans. AGI is going to kill humans. We are pushing ourselves toward a final end via the avid pursuit of AGI.

In a sense, we are all residing in a soon-to-be boiling pot. Each step toward AGI is an inching up of the temperature. The problem is that we aren’t going to realize what a mess we’ve placed ourselves in. The debates about the matter will keep us from taking timely action.

I don’t want to seem uncouth, but please be aware that you, me, and every one of the other 8 billion or so people on Earth, well, we are all frogs.

Do you feel the heat yet?

Maybe We Need More Heat

Some would say that until the pot of water gets to a certain heated temperature, you can’t necessarily be cognizant of what is happening to you.

Perhaps the conventional AI that we have right now is too low of a temperature. A frog in a pot of water that is at normal temperature would presumably have no particular reason to balk about being there. Sure, it’s in a pot and not in its native habitat, but the water is pleasant for the time being.

Humanity could be at that same stage at this time.

The present-day AI is seemingly not hot enough to make us get riled up. We will collectively only begin to get upset when AGI is nearer to our shores. Once we begin to see the earmarks of true AGI, our Spidey-sense tingling foreshadows will arise. Voila, humanity will stop the AGI pursuit in its tracks. A dash of cold water over our heads will clear our minds and we will not fall into the boiling frog trap. We will escape the insidious trap.

Humanity saves itself from utter destruction.

Boom, drop the mic.

Humans Are No Better Than Frogs

Whoa, comes the retort, you are assuming that the nearness to AGI will tip us to the existential risk that is afoot.

Suppose that we don’t see those signs. There is a solid chance that the path to AGI, even once we are a nudge away from achieving AGI, will not reveal the horrible outcome we are about to incur. Humans might sit in that darned almost boiling water and then find us unable to extricate prior to AGI coming into existence.

We are going to boil, sadly so.

Another aspect is that, unlike frogs, we haughtily believe we are smart and thus can convince ourselves of things that a frog could never conceive of. For example, maybe we realize that AGI is going to be gloomy, but we also believe that our establishment of various controls over AI will keep our heads above water. The AGI will be constrained and unable to harm us.

The crux is that yes, we will acknowledge that there is boiling water coming up, yet despite that acknowledgment, we are going to land in it anyway. All those alleged controls are going to be incapable of stopping AGI from doing terrible things. For an in-depth analysis of why it is problematic to likely control AGI, see my discussion at the link here.

Whereas a frog cannot presumably discern that the water is nearing boiling (per that slanted side of the lore), humans will see it from a mile away. We will then come up with preventative measures that give us a false sense of safety and security. They won’t prevail over AGI.

Unfortunately, we will ultimately suffer the same fate as the undiscerning frog.

Food For Thought

What do you think of our capabilities versus the lowly frog?

A famous theologian of the late 1800s, William Greenough Thayer Shedd, made this striking point about frogs: “Frogs are smart; they eat what bugs them.” Maybe we aren’t giving enough credence to the revered frog. Frogs might still be around after AGI arrives, though the longevity of humans might be in question.

Go ahead and take some quiet time to mull over these AGI qualms, just don’t let your mind boil over as you sort out what the future holds.