Investing.com – Global markets face a packed week of policy and geopolitical developments, including White House’s stance on Venezuela, a looming Supreme Court decision on Trump-era tariffs, and sweeping Pentagon procurement reforms among the key themes to watch.

In a Monday note to clients, brokerage Raymond James highlighted five geopolitical and macro themes that could impact markets in the coming days.

1) White House downplays near-term Venezuela strikes: The White House told Congress it currently lacks the legal authority to carry out military strikes on Venezuela, though an additional Department of Justice opinion is being sought.

Officials have not ruled out future action, with the White House preparing several options for military operations, including targeting forces protecting President Nicolás Maduro and seizing oil fields.

The buildup in the Caribbean suggests ongoing deliberations. The administration has not ruled out action once the Ford carrier strike group arrives in the region, seen as the earliest feasible timing for any move.

Raymond James analyst Ellen Ehrnrooth said the denials from the White House may reflect “strategic ambiguity” while maintaining pressure on Maduro.

2) Pentagon acquisition overhaul: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced plans to revamp the Pentagon’s procurement process, aiming to streamline operations and incentivize contractors to invest in capacity and innovation.

His proposal includes shifting oversight structures and creating new “portfolio acquisition executive” roles.

The plan would replace the Joint Capabilities and Integration Development System (JCIDS) with a new framework including the Requirements and Resourcing Alignment Board and the Joint Acceleration Reserve. Implementation guidance is due within 45 days, with department plans to follow within 60 days.

Hegseth urged industry to “use capital expenditures to upgrade facilities, upskill their workforce and expand capacity.” The move follows both congressional efforts and executive orders seeking faster defense acquisitions.

3) Russia-Ukraine: Pressure on Pokrovsk: Meanwhile, Russia has advanced in the Donetsk region’s city of Pokrovsk, intensifying Ukraine’s manpower challenges and testing a key strategic point.

Over 300 Russian soldiers have entered the city, while Ukraine has sent elite units to reinforce it.

Ehrnrooth said that if Pokrovsk falls, it would represent a symbolic loss for Kyiv and “embolden Russia” both militarily and diplomatically. Without new interventions, the analyst sees few signs of near-term de-escalation.

4) Supreme Court tariff case: Following last week’s oral arguments, the firm believes it is “more likely than not” that the Supreme Court will strike down some or all of Trump’s IEEPA tariffs.

Certain tariff-exposed stocks reacted positively, but analysts said “wide-ranging refunds are unlikely.” A five-justice majority appears possible, with three liberal justices and at least two conservatives — Barrett, Roberts, Gorsuch, or Kavanaugh — seen as skeptical of the government’s position.

The administration could instead rely on other authorities such as Section 122, 301, or 338 to reimpose tariffs. USTR Jamieson Greer suggested a ruling could come before year-end, though a spring decision remains possible.

5) USGS critical minerals list expanded: The U.S. Geological Survey finalized its 2025 update to the critical minerals list, adding uranium, copper, silver, and potash, bringing the total to 60 commodities, up from 50 in 2022.

Inclusion makes these materials eligible for federal incentives and expedited permitting, but also subjects them to pending tariffs on processed minerals. Analysts noted that the implicit China focus of the tariff design could delay implementation as trade talks continue.

The upcoming tariff design, analysts noted, could hinge on whether the administration adopts an across-the-board or case-by-case approach.