Published on November 12, 2025 8:30 PM GMT

In Liu Cixin’s The Three-Body Problem, Trisolaran scientists conclude that “physics does not exist” after observing chaotic, unpredictable behavior in their world. Their planet orbits three suns in patterns they cannot predict, causing civilization-destroying climate chaos that seems random. Unable to model when their suns will rise or set, they conclude natural law itself is unreliable.

The irony is that physics works fine - three-body gravitational dynamics are just deterministically chaotic. But there’s a different reading: What if their mistake wasn’t about complexity, but about confusing coordinated external action with natural law?

The Bitcoin Halving Pattern

Every ~4 years, Bitcoin’s block reward halves. The observed pattern: major bull runs follow (2012, 2016, 2020). Standard explanation: reduced supply → scarcity → price appreciation. A natural economic law.

Except the sample size is tiny, and these events are perfectly predictable years in advance. In efficient markets, predictable events should be priced in. Yet the pattern persists.

Alternative hypothesis: Whales coordinate pumps around halvings because retail expects them. The “law” isn’t supply mechanics - it’s powerful actors who’ve decided halvings are good times to pump because:

• Everyone expects it (self-fulfilling)
• Retail FOMO provides exit liquidity
• The narrative provides cover for coordinated action
• Breaking the pattern would undermine the asset class

The Real Trisolaran Mistake

Imagine if the chaotic sun cycles weren’t purely physical - if an advanced civilization was deliberately manipulating their suns. The Trisolarans would still see patterns that work briefly then fail. But the causation would be fundamentally different:

• Physical chaos: Deterministic but unpredictable
• Adversarial chaos: Patterns maintained by actors with goals

You can’t model adversarial chaos like physical chaos, because the “laws” change when the adversary’s goals change.

Why This Matters

We’re good at distinguishing natural laws from social constructs. But we’re less practiced at identifying maintained patterns - regularities that look like natural laws but are sustained by coordinated action.

These are insidious because:

• They work until they don’t
• Each iteration strengthens belief in the “law”
• They’re self-fulfilling
• They can break suddenly if key actors defect

Red Flags for Maintained Patterns

• Small sample sizes preventing statistical testing
• Perfectly predictable timing enabling coordination
• Massive beneficiary asymmetry (whales vs. retail)
• Pattern persists despite being “priced in”
• Growing narrative complexity explaining exceptions

Bitcoin halvings hit all of these.