Lawson Luckie and the Georgia Bulldogs have one of Week 10’s best bets against Florida. Todd Kirkland / Getty Images

My College Football Projection Model just can’t catch a break when it comes to its best bets. Now, mind you, most of my bets either won by a lot last week or lost by a lot; the two that were close, though, of course, found a way to come out on the losing end.

I’m not super mad about either, but betting SMU at -2.5 and having it close at -5.5 only for them to lose outright is a tough pill to swallow. The same goes for betting Cal at +6.5 and having them lose in double overtime on a two-point conversion. If one of those had swung in our direction, we would have had a winning week. Unfortunately, those are the breaks sometimes, and we just have to move forward.

Last week’s record: 3-4, -1.68 units Season record: 21-28-1, -10.12 units, -18.3% ROI

I see a handful of plays for Week 10, including some bets in a few marquee games. Don’t sleep on Navy and North Texas! That’s a big game. Anyway, shop around for the best price and good luck!

Week 10 best bets

Navy at North Texas under 66.5 (-110)

Worst price to bet: Under 65.5 (-110)

Shop around as this is the best price in market. Admittedly, I’m disappointed that I’m going to be betting an under in a sneaky great game this weekend. The American is a major player in the CFP race, and both of these teams have realistic shots of making the playoff. Two different styles of play, as North Texas will be a good bit above average pace, while Navy will play really slow. The issue is that both offenses have been super efficient this year, and Navy’s defense might not be able to hold up. Still, despite my model knowing these things, I have this pegged for the low 60s.

Minnesota -3.5 (-105) vs. Michigan State

Worst price to bet: Minnesota -4 (-110)

My model thinks Michigan State is really poor, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and while Minnesota’s offense isn’t going to light up the scoreboard, they should have a distinct advantage to put up some points for their home fans. The matchup that I really like, though, is Minnesota’s defense against this Spartan offense. Aidan Chiles has his moments, but at the end of the day, he’s not consistent enough down-to-down to move the ball against a solid unit. Michigan State does not do well on early downs, and Minnesota is great at getting you into third and long. Go Gophers!

South Alabama -4 (-108) vs. Louisiana

Worst price to bet: South Alabama -4 (-110)

This is a tough one to stomach because South Alabama’s defense is very bad, but the best unit in this game is the South Alabama offense, and I’m not sure it’s close. I don’t have much other analysis other than Louisiana might find some success on the ground against South Alabama’s defense, but in a battle of two bad teams, I’ll take the team at home and with the better offense.

Tennessee -2.5 (-105) vs. Oklahoma

Worst price to bet: Tennessee -2.5 (-110)

Oklahoma failed to get pressure on more than 30% of opponent dropbacks against Michigan, South Carolina, and Ole Miss. In other words, when they’ve stepped up in class, the defense has dropped off quite a bit. Throw in the fact that the offense hasn’t quite looked the same since John Mateer came back from injury, and I think it’s fair to say that they’ll have a hard time keeping up with Tennessee here. This is a de facto elimination game for the playoffs, give me the Vols.

Georgia -7 (-110) vs. Florida

Worst price to bet: Georgia -7 (-115)

The way to attack this Georgia defense is through the air as they have not been able to get after the quarterback this year. Luckily for them, Florida hasn’t been able to move the ball consistently when dropping back to pass this season. Now, there is an argument that the firing of Billy Napier could open up the offense a bit for the Gators but I’m not buying it. Georgia is the much better football team and they’re the better coached team and my model has Georgia by double-digits.

Oct 31, 2025

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Austin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports. Follow Austin on Twitter @amock419