Miami’s ACC title hopes took a serious hit in their first game outside the state of Florida this season. Stacy Revere / Getty Images

DALLAS — No. 10 Miami (Fla.) lost 26-20 to SMU in overtime on Saturday, putting the preseason ACC favorites’ College Football Playoff hopes in real danger heading into the final month of the season. The win was SMU’s first against an AP top-10 team since the Jan. 1, 1983 Sugar Bowl against Pitt, as well as the program’s first home win over a top-10 team since 1974 (Texas A&M).

According to The Athletic’s College Football Playoff projections model, the loss dropped Miami’s odds to make the field from 84 percent to 30 percent.

It was Miami’s first game played outside the state of Florida this season and just the Canes’ second road game. That may have played a role in a rainy and chilly first half that saw Miami commit eight penalties and a slew of other errors, including an interception in their own territory, an ill-advised kick return and the failure to down a long punt. The Canes led 10-7 at halftime but otherwise had dominated in the box score.

It was enough to keep SMU hanging around, and when the sun came out for the second half, the Mustangs got moving. Sam Keltner’s field goal tied the score at 20 with 25 seconds to play, and Miami quarterback Carson Beck threw an interception at the goal line during the first possession of overtime. That set the stage for T.J. Harden to scamper in untouched from a yard out to seal the victory.

SMU takes down No. 10 Miami in overtime for its first home win against a top-10 team in 51 years‼️ pic.twitter.com/qF7hgq9Gzj

— ESPN (@espn) November 1, 2025

What does this loss mean for Miami?

The Canes already didn’t control their own path to the ACC Championship Game after losing to Louisville because they miss Georgia Tech and Virginia on the regular-season schedule. Now they suddenly have two conference losses and a difficult path to a Playoff spot.

The season-opening nonconference win against Notre Dame had boosted Miami’s at-large resume and provided a little cushion, but now with two losses, a spot isn’t guaranteed even if Miami wins out. The Canes missed last year’s field with a 10-2 record as well.

The first CFP rankings will be revealed on Tuesday, and Miami may not feel good about where it lands.

What does this win mean for SMU?

The Mustangs are very much in the ACC title race despite losing at Wake Forest on the final play last week. They’re jumbled up in a group of teams with one ACC loss, so they’ll also need Virginia or Georgia Tech to drop a game.

It had been a bit of a frustrating year for SMU, coming off last year’s CFP appearance. The Mustangs were one play away from beating both Baylor and Wake Forest while battling numerous injuries, but it’s been an impressive effort to get to 6-3 and keep themselves faintly alive in the CFP race again. According to The Athletic’s model, their CFP chances rose from 5 percent to 14 percent, all dependent on winning the ACC championship. SMU is now 12-1 in regular-season ACC games since joining the league.

Nov 1, 2025

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Chris Vannini has covered national college football issues and the coaching carousel for The Athletic since 2017. A co-winner of the FWAA’s Beat Writer of the Year Award in 2018, he previously was managing editor of CoachingSearch.com. Follow Chris on Twitter @ChrisVannini