Head coach Brad Underwood of the Illinois Fighting Illini reacts against the Xavier Musketeers in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Stacy Revere / Getty Images

By Jim Root

Nov. 3, 2025Updated 1:09 pm EST

The road to the Final Four has begun. Looking at the last few years of men’s college basketball, a trend has emerged: Long shots are winning. And, for the savvy bettor, that can mean scooping up favorable futures odds on the NCAA champion market before the games begin in earnest. Identifying a potentially high-upside asset can lead to ridiculous value in a few months.

Over the last three seasons, the eventual national champion has been quite a value bet before the games tipped off. Only UConn, when it repeated in 2023-24, was higher than 50/1 odds during the preseason (historical odds per Sports Reference):

• 2025: Florida 60/1
• 2024: UConn 20/1
• 2023: UConn 80/1

That means there can be value in searching further down the board than just the betting favorite when the season begins. Yes, the most likely candidates are still atop the betting board, but holding a Florida 60/1 ticket in March last year was a glorious feeling.

Below are four candidates to hopefully provide that same satisfaction — and, potentially, profit — come March Madness 2026. Note, BetMGM is a partner of The Athletic, but always shop around for the best odds at any sportsbooks to which you have access! These futures bets are sourced from Caesars and DraftKings.

Illinois +3000 (Caesars)

First, the data-driven case. Illinois is top 10 at KenPom (sixth), Bart Torvik (eighth) and EvanMiya (eighth), three highly respected analytical projection sites. And that is with each site taking an admittedly conservative approach on international players, meaning the Illini’s new duo of Mihailo Petrovic and David Mirkovic are not expected to make a sizable impact. Projections are also likely undervaluing freshman Keaton Wagler, a potential starter who has gotten rave reviews from everyone who has seen Illinois play this preseason. Getting a top-10 team with an even higher ceiling at this price is a bargain.

From a more on-court analysis perspective, the Fighting Illini have a ton going for them. Coach Brad Underwood is an asset on the sidelines, and he has shown tremendous flexibility in style to try to maximize his roster from year to year. This season, he has (literal) twin tower 7-footers in Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic, both of whom can space the floor offensively, and bulldog guard Kylan Boswell is back as an outstanding defender and leader. Andrej Stojaković should thrive in his new system, and Illinois even hired a new defensive coordinator to bolster that end of the floor. This is a high-upside team with an excellent coach.

Gonzaga +4500 (DraftKings)

Like Illinois, the Zags’ futures price does not remotely match their analytical projections. At KenPom and EvanMiya, Mark Few’s team ranks eighth and ninth, respectively. The price may be too anchored to Bart Torvik’s ranking of 24th, as his ratings come out much earlier in the offseason. The value of potentially having a top-10 team at these long odds could be immense. The biggest gripe with this current Zags core, led by elite scoring big men Graham Ike and Braden Huff, is that it has not consistently won its marquee nonconference games the past two years, leading to deflated seeding in the NCAA Tournament.

Those close game results can change on a dime, though, and Gonzaga overhauled the perimeter group around that pairing. Adding Tyon Grant-Foster, an elite wing defender who recently won an injunction against the NCAA to earn eligibility, should be a huge boost to a leaky unit. And the Zags dipped into the international market for Spanish guard Mario Saint-Supery, a possible star considering his production in the top league in Spain (8.3 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.1 APG). If Gonzaga can win big early and ascend back to its days of being a No. 1 seed, these odds will be long gone.

NC State +6000 (DraftKings) and Virginia +9000 (Caesars)

I could not pick between these two resurgent ACC programs, so I’m going with both, as they have similar upsides and downsides. Admittedly, these wagers take a little more squinting, considering neither of the completely rebuilt squads fares well in computer projections. NC State’s highest ranking among that trio of sites is 26th per EvanMiya, while Virginia tops out at 33rd at Bart Torvik. Through that lens, neither profile jumps off the page as a standout wager.

However, these teams may be more difficult to value for several reasons. First, both have brand-new coaches. The Wolfpack hired noted NCAA outlaw Will Wade. Wade’s outrageous success at McNeese — he had, easily, the program’s two best seasons ever — indicates how well he has adapted to the NIL era. Virginia, meanwhile, turned to Ryan Odom, who has taken a more conventional climb up the coaching ladder, winning big at every stop along the way (UMBC, Utah St. and VCU).

The rosters are promising, as well. NC State has a star in Darrion Williams, who has performed in the NCAA Tournament, plus elite role players in Tre Holloman, Terrance Arceneaux and Ven-Allen Lubin. The Wolfpack also has NBA prospects on the wing in Paul McNeil and Matt Able. The Cavaliers loaded up on shooting and experience in the backcourt this offseason, featuring San Francisco’s Malik Thomas and BYU’s Dallin Hall. They also took major swings in the frontcourt with Belgian forward Thijs de Ridder and German center Johann Grünloh. If both of those European gambles hit the jackpot, Virginia could be an absurd value here.

Nov 3, 2025

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Jim Root is a contributing writer for The Athletic covering college basketball. Before joining The Athletic, he started the college basketball website and podcast Three Man Weave in 2015. He has also worked for Sports Illustrated, the Field of 68, The Action Network and other outlets. He’s a graduate of the University of Missouri and originates from the Milwaukee, Wisc., area.