Former New York Jets Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner were traded to the Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts, respectively, on Tuesday. Al Bello and Luke Hales / Getty Images

The NFL trade deadline delivered some fireworks. While there weren’t a ton of last-minute deals, a couple were blockbusters. In that regard, I think we all owe the New York Jets and general manager Darren Mougey a thank you for an entertaining day.

While watching the drama of Tuesday play out was no doubt fun, were the actual deals made all that impactful? Probably not. At least not in the short term.

Make no mistake, the two stars New York traded away — cornerback Sauce Gardner to the Indianapolis Colts and Quinnen Williams to the Dallas Cowboys — are excellent players. The same can be said, to a lesser degree, of wide receiver Rashid Shaheed, who was dealt from the New Orleans Saints to the Seattle Seahawks. They’re going to make their new teams better. However, even top players like these can only achieve so much in half a season.

So, while you might think the Colts’ and Seahawks’ playoff/Super Bowl odds soared after these deals went down, my NFL Projection Model is here to rain on your parade. The same goes for any Cowboys fans thinking Williams and fellow trade acquisition Logan Wilson are going to suddenly breathe life into Dallas’ dormant playoff hopes. They’re not.

Here’s why:

Indianapolis Colts and Seattle Seahawks

Let’s start with the Colts and Gardner. Perhaps the biggest reason the Gardner acquisition won’t significantly impact the Colts’ playoff odds is that they were already a strong bet to make it into the mix. My model already views them as a top-10 team, and at 7-2, the Colts already sit atop the AFC. While a secondary with Gardner, Charvarius Ward, Kenny Moore II and Cam Bynum could be enough to slow down Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and/or Lamar Jackson in the playoffs, Gardner can only do so much in eight games.

The same goes for Shaheed and the Seahawks. My model also sees Seattle as a top-10 team, so while Shaheed should help add an explosive element to an offense that is already highly explosive and efficient, his arrival isn’t going to catapult them up the rankings.

I’m not trying to knock either player. That’s just the reality of the situation for non-quarterbacks. They’re not going to move the needle much. If you recall, I wrote something similar for when theGreen Bay Packers traded for Micah Parsons before the season. My model viewed him as the second-best pass rusher in the NFL, and while he had the chance to impact Green Bay for the entire season, his addition still only amounted to an 11 percent increase in playoff odds for the Packers and about a half-win over the course of the season.

Neither Gardner nor Shaheed is the impact player that Parsons is, and you’re only getting those players for half the season. That’s why it’s not shocking to see the respective odds not change much for either team.

Dallas Cowboys

Well, I mentioned that the Cowboys sent Parsons to Green Bay, and they’ve again made some changes to one of, if not the worst, defenses in the NFL. Adding Williams will give the defense a boost, but what is the ceiling? In 2025, it’s not very high. The Cowboys currently sit at 3-5-1 and have just a 4 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to my model. That’s after the move to acquire Williams.

Look, this isn’t to say teams shouldn’t try to improve with deals at the deadline. Of course they should. Those teams also must be realistic about their futures, though. Both the Colts and Seahawks already had great shots to make the playoffs, and Gardner and Shaheed give them a better chance to go further in the postseason. The Cowboys, however? Well, the odds are so slim to begin with, and they just added a 28-year-old defensive tackle that cost them valuable future draft assets.

I’m not sure anyone thinks the Cowboys are winning anything this year, and I’d argue that team owner Jerry Jones and the front office didn’t think so either when they traded Parsons. Now, when you factor in the Parsons deal, it seems the Cowboys traded Micah Parsons for Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark and approximately a second-round pick. That’s not good business for a team that likely won’t compete this year and one that doesn’t look well-equipped to compete in the future, either. It’s an understatement to say the Jets won this trade. In fact, they took the Cowboys’ lunch and then some.

New York Jets

We’re going to dive more into the frontrunners for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft next week, but after the Jets’ teardown at the deadline, it’s worth mentioning the impact the trades had on their chances of securing the top pick. Entering Tuesday, New York had the second-most likely odds to pick first — behind the Tennessee Titans — at 28 percent. However, after trading away Gardner and Williams, the Jets have surpassed the Titans as the most likely team to select first, at 35 percent.

I know the Jets have been criticized for years for how their franchise is run, and it’s mostly been fair. Still, it’s hard not to think Tuesday was a good day for the franchise. Putting themselves in the driver’s seat for the top pick, while amassing that much draft capital, should play a huge role in kick-starting their rebuild.

Nov 6, 2025

Connections: Sports Edition

Spot the pattern. Connect the terms

Find the hidden link between sports terms

Austin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports. Follow Austin on Twitter @amock419