Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers just had a big win, but is the market overreacting to that game? Justin K. Aller / Getty Images

They say football is a game of inches and that is true whether you’re actually playing the game or if you have a wager on the game. My NFL Projection Model had quite the sweats last week and ended up going 2-1 in games that came down to the wire. Very easily could have gone 0-3 or 3-0. That’s how it goes and you just have to keep with your process.

Alas, a winning week is a winning week. As we are now past the halfway point, having a return on investment that is pushing double digits is awesome. Will that last? Unlikely, but we will be doing what we can to keep it as high as we can throughout the season.

Last week’s record: 3-2, +0.80 units Season record: 25-19, +4.53 units, +9.4% ROI

Four bets on the card this week, two are primetime games and the other two are divisional games that should be intriguing. Hopefully we can keep the winning ways going again in Week 10. As always shop around for the best price and good luck!

NFL Week 10 best bets

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos under 43 (-110)

**Worst price to bet: **Under 43 (-110)

Thursday night games are always wonky, but I’m not loving the matchup for this Raiders offense. The Broncos do a great job at getting pressure and that’s been the Achilles’ heel for Geno Smith and this passing offense. I do wonder if Brock Bowers being back in the lineup for the second week will help things out in that department, but this really comes down to the Raiders offensive line being overmatched. On the other side of the ball, I don’t think this Broncos offense is very good. Maybe they can beat up on a bad team here, but if you take out their performances against the Bengals and Cowboys, this offense is at the bottom of the league in success rate.

Houston Texans moneyline (+102) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Worst price to bet: Texans moneyline (-105)

No C.J. Stroud? No problem. Davis Mills is certainly a downgrade, but this is more of a fade of the Jaguars. Outside of there being a ton of injury concerns for the Jags — Brian Thomas Jr. and Jourdan Lewis being two big ones — I just don’t think this is a very good football team. The defense was overrated in the beginning of the year and has come back down to earth. The offense is very reliant on getting the run game going to see anything in the passing game. And now they have to go up against the team that has the best defense in the league per my model? Give me the Texans.

Seattle Seahawks -6.5 (-115) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Worst price to bet: Seahawks -6.5 (-120)

My model has this game priced north of 7. I think Seattle is the much better team. In their prior matchup, Arizona almost came back to win, but Seattle was super efficient on offense before garbage time and I’d expect much of the same on Sunday. The addition of Rashid Shaheed will be one to watch as he could get up to speed quickly after being in Klint Kubiak’s offense last season. I think that his speed should give Seattle a deep threat that they’ve been missing so far this year and that will open up the rest of the field for Darnold to operate.

Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 (-115) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Worst price to bet: Chargers -2.5 (-115)

Yes, the Steelers looked good against the Colts last week as their defense was able to slow down the high-powered offense. But in a game where the Colts committed six turnovers, the Steelers still had to recover an onside kick to secure the victory. I’m skeptical of how good they actually are. The defense did make some changes last week, but now the Chargers will have a chance to gameplan for that. Essentially, I think the market is overreacting to the Steelers victory against the Colts last week. Though, Joe Alt being out of the lineup is a concern.

Nov 6, 2025

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Austin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports. Follow Austin on Twitter @amock419