LT Overton and the Alabama defense should be a touch matchup for a struggling LSU offense. Jacob Kupferman / Getty Images

Another week of getting some good numbers and not having anything to show for it. My College Football Projection Model got the best of the closing number on four of five plays last week and only got to the window on the one that didn’t get the best of the number.

I’m not saying Georgia was the right side — they weren’t — but they did close north of -7 and we found ourselves a few feet from getting a cover. Tennessee closed at -3.5 in some spots and our -2.5 -105 didn’t even sniff a victory. And then finally, Minnesota closed -4.5 and our 3.5 didn’t come home for us in overtime. On top of the fact that Michigan State snuck in a late quarterback change that no one saw coming. Oh well, onto the next week.

Last week’s record: 1-4, -3.28 units Season record: 22-32-1, -13.40 units, -22.1% ROI

Three plays to start things off this week. Full disclosure, I’m showing a pretty decent size edge on Colorado but with how they’ve been playing recently, I’m not sure if I want to grab it without seeing +7. That might be an add before tomorrow but as it stands right now, I’m holding off. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!

College football Week 11 best bets

Wake Forest at Virginia over 47.5 (-110)

Worst price to bet: Over 47.5 (-110)

This one is painful because Wake Forest has been so reliant on its defense this year, but against better offenses this year, the Demon Deacons have given up at least 30 points three times. Frankly, I think Wake Forest is beating up on some bad teams and I don’t think Virginia fits into that category this week. Similarly, Virginia’s defense has struggled against quality competition and has given up at least 27 points against the three best offenses they’ve played. If Virginia can score and make Wake Forest play a little quicker, I think we see this game get into the 50s.

Alabama -10 (-110) vs. LSU

Worst price to bet: Alabama -10 (-115)

This isn’t a horrible matchup for the LSU defense. The Tigers have been vulnerable against the run this year and Alabama isn’t the most efficient rushing offense. How they match up through the air will be key to how much Alabama can win by. But I don’t know where the success comes from for LSU’s offense. LSU has not been able to run the ball this year and that’s how you’ll want to attack Alabama’s defense. If LSU is stuck in the mud on offense, I’m not sure how this stays under two touchdowns.

Georgia State +7.5 (-110) at Coastal Carolina

Worst price to bet: Georgia State +7.5 (-115)

Yeah, yeah, Georgia State’s defense is awful and that’s going to be hard to overcome. But are we sure Coastal Carolina’s offense should be laying over a touchdown here? The Chanticleers have been better in recent weeks, but it’s still not a quality offense according to EPA per play where they rank in the bottom 20 in the country. As for Georgia State, its offense has some life? That gives me hope for a team that likely won’t get many stops. Long story short here is that my model thinks this should be below a touchdown and I can’t pass up the 7.5.

Nov 7, 2025

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Austin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports. Follow Austin on Twitter @amock419