There was a point Sunday afternoon when the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams led their opponents by a combined 56-0 margin.

Both take 7-2 records into their Week 11 matchup in Los Angeles.

With the Detroit Lions topping 500 yards for the second time this season in a 44-22 victory over Washington, and with the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles visiting Green Bay on Monday night, the time is right to re-stack the NFC hierarchy.

“I’m trusting Seattle and the Rams both over Philadelphia, just because I like the way the quarterbacks are playing,” an exec from another team said.

The Pick Six column starts there and does not leave out Tampa Bay or San Francisco, even though injuries could keep them on the outside. The full menu:

• Re-stacking the NFC hierarchy • Did Colts err with big trade? • Dolphins’ two big surprises • Cardinals’ quarterback fallout • Jets won, but has coach lost? • Two-minute drill: Sean Payton

1. The Seahawks and Rams might be the best teams in the NFC. Let’s run through the top.

The exec quoted above thinks the Rams and Seahawks can score and win in more ways than the Eagles can. He was highest on Green Bay entering the season but is having trouble trusting the Packers as much now, despite their 5-2-1 record.

Tampa Bay’s defeat to New England gave the exec some pause on the Buccaneers, while the injury situation in San Francisco seems too much to overcome. As for Detroit, he thought the Lions, despite their dominance of the Commanders, lacked some of the creativity that stood out when Ben Johnson was coordinating the offense.

Our top six NFC contenders appear below, ordered by their chances to reach the Super Bowl via The Athletic’s projection model as of Sunday night. Records and Super Bowl chances appear in parentheses.

**• Rams (7-2, 26.2 percent): **The Rams are the only team in the league to rank among the top five in EPA per play on both sides of the ball. Their chances of reaching the Super Bowl have roughly tripled since preseason, now that Matthew Stafford has proven the back issues that sidelined him during training camp are not a concern.

“Stafford is playing as good as anybody at the position,” an opposing team exec said.

Stafford has hit Rams-era career highs for EPA per pass play and air yards per attempt. There would seem to be a correlation between Stafford having more time to throw and feeling better about striking down the field. Puka Nacua’s dominance was well-established in Los Angeles, but newcomer Davante Adams, who suffered an oblique injury Sunday, is on pace for career highs in air yards per target (12.8) and reception (11.5).

“Davante is the kind of guy that is in the right spot, so it’s easy for the quarterback to get used to him,” a defensive coach said. “It’s so different from DK Metcalf in Pittsburgh, who slows down and starts guessing if he’s in the read or not.”

Stafford and coach Sean McVay have 73 total games together, and it shows. The Rams own the NFL’s lowest rate of presnap penalties, typical for a McVay offense. The team has scored at least 34 points in each of its past three games, handing the San Francisco 49ers’ defense its worst beating of the season Sunday as measured by EPA per play.

The offense has leaned heavily into 13 personnel (three tight ends) in recent weeks, even after Nacua returned from injury. Might that keep Seattle out of its exotic sub packages in Week 11?

The Rams are not perfect.

Their kicking game has been atrocious, resulting in a league-worst minus-31.8 EPA differential on field goal tries. That could cost the Rams in a tight game against a strong opponent, including against Seattle, which ranks first in overall special teams EPA this season.

**• Eagles (6-2, 20.2 percent): **All they do is win 71 percent of their games under Nick Sirianni, with two Super Bowl appearances and one Lombardi Trophy over his four-plus seasons as coach. They’ve beaten the Chiefs and Rams already this season.

Philly needed reinforcements at the trade deadline and spent a third-round pick on pass rusher Jaelan Phillips. Guard Landon Dickerson and linebacker Nakobe Dean are back from injury.

When the Eagles struggled on offense early in the season, some in the league predicted a repeat of the 2023 season, when Brian Johnson was one-and-done as offensive coordinator between Shane Steichen and Kellen Moore. Philly has made major statistical gains on offense under first-time coordinator Kevin Patullo since then, although the offense remains a work in progress.

“(Jared) Goff, when he is going and they are going downhill, is difficult to deal with, and of course, Stafford is that way too,” one exec said. “But I don’t feel that way about Jalen Hurts.”

Philly has shifted heavily toward being under center over the past two games after successive defeats to the Broncos and Giants. The rushing output has never been lower through the first eight games of a season under Sirianni. Much could be learned against Green Bay on Monday night.

**• Seahawks (7-2, 16.1 percent): **Seattle is the first team since 1980 and the fourth ever to exceed 30 first-half points three times in one season, per Pro Football Reference, and there are still eight games to play. The Seahawks have built first-half leads of 38-3 over the Saints, 31-7 over Washington and 35-0 over Arizona. Seattle’s overall point differential (+103) is a franchise best, by far, to this point in a season.

“They have great personnel,” an opposing coach said. “There are little things with their roster that make a difference, like all the tight ends can play on (special) teams. Situationally, they are very sound. And then they attack the ball on defense.”

Seattle has become a physical, hard-hitting team on defense in Mike Macdonald’s second season as coach and defensive play caller. Two fumble-forcing hits on Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett were particularly violent, with both resulting in touchdown returns for DeMarcus Lawrence.

On offense, Sam Darnold owns three of the NFL’s five best games this season for EPA per pass play. He is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt, best in the league by a yard (Drake Maye, 8.9). He’s tied with Stafford and Maye for most completions on passes traveling longer than 20 yards downfield (17 each), while ranking first in completion rate on these throws by far (61 percent, with Hurts next at 52 percent).

“Going into the year, you would not say this was going to be a top-five offense, but it is,” another opposing coach said.

**• Packers (5-2-1, 16.1 percent): **How much should head-scratching defeats to Cleveland and Carolina shake our confidence in Green Bay? What about the Packers giving up 40 points to Dallas and hanging on for a tie? No team plays well every week, but Green Bay is the only team with more than one defeat this season when favored by at least seven.

“They are difficult to get a read on,” an exec said. “They are a roller coaster. One day, Jeff Hafley has fixed everything on defense. Then they give up a bunch of points. They go deep better than anyone. Then they lose 16-13 to Carolina at home wearing 1923 helmets. The more I watch, the more I start to think some of these head coach/play callers need to focus more on the whole team.”

It’s easy to forget Green Bay has a 5-2-1 record, with quarterback Jordan Love leading the league in EPA per pass play.

“Top quarterback, but there are times he gets a little cold,” an opposing defensive play caller said. “(Matt) LaFleur and Kyle (Shanahan) are the best in terms of getting you out of the call you want to be in a high percentage of the time. Green Bay is coached well, he calls it well, they are designed well.”

**• Lions (6-3, 10.6 percent): **Dan Campbell took over offensive play-calling duties from John Morton at the perfect time — right before facing a Washington defense that allowed 8.7 yards per play to Seattle last week.

The Lions averaged 8.0 per play against the Commanders on Sunday. It was the sixth-highest total for any offense against any opponent in the NFL this season. The play caller for the No. 1 effort on that list was ... Morton, naturally, against Chicago in Week 2.

What does it all mean?

“For them to get beat like they did by Minnesota last week, that is an alarm to me,” a former head coach said. “I just would be concerned about their inconsistencies. It is going to be interesting how they progress.”

Campbell agreed enough to take over play-calling duties, which was never a consideration when Ben Johnson was calling the offense in recent seasons.

“Dan’s got a lot of s— to do besides decide what the first third-and-3 call is,” a veteran coach said.

A trip to Philadelphia awaits the Lions in Week 11. Campbell plans to continue calling plays, which he admitted will be challenging, given all his other game-day duties. But he has done it before, between demoting Anthony Lynn and naming Johnson to the role.

“I think we can grow from here,” Campbell said.

The Lions clearly would be better off with Johnson calling the plays. They had to know that coming into the season. But the team still derives its identity from the head coach.

**• Buccaneers (6-3, 6.4 percent): **The Bucs rank 27th in offensive EPA per play over their past three games after ranking seventh through Week 6.

Against New England on Sunday, Tampa Bay’s defense allowed four plays of 50-plus yards. No team has allowed more in 6,226 total team games since 2000, per TruMedia. Only the 2023 Broncos and 2015 Texans gave up that many in a game since then, both against the Dolphins.

So, how are you feeling about the Bucs?

“Baker Mayfield is a good two-minute quarterback, so they always have an ability to win it at the end,” an opposing coach said.

That was true when Tampa Bay collected its first four victories of the season by a combined nine points. The Bucs have won comfortably against the 49ers and Saints since then, but losses to the Lions and Patriots raise questions heading into games against Buffalo and the Rams over the next two weeks.

Injuries to key players on offense, from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to Bucky Irving and multiple offensive linemen, could keep Tampa Bay from contending as seriously.

**• 49ers (6-4, 2.8 percent): **The 49ers don’t want to hear anything about the Buccaneers’ injury concerns. They’ve been without starting quarterback Brock Purdy, No. 1 receiver Brandon Aiyuk, top pass rusher Nick Bosa and All-Pro middle linebacker Fred Warner, among others.

Their 42-26 defeat to the Rams was their most lopsided in the series since 39-10 and 48-32 losses to Los Angeles in 2018, when backups Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard were the 49ers’ starting quarterbacks. The 49ers have been better with Mac Jones subbing for Brock Purdy, but not Sunday.

2. The Colts paid a premium for Sauce Gardner in an era where the shutdown corner doesn’t shut down nearly as much. Was it a mistake?

The case for acquiring Gardner is simple from the Colts’ perspective. They are getting a talented young corner under contract through 2030, a player they would never be able to land in free agency. Once starting corner Charvarius Ward returns from injury following a Week 11 bye, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo can unleash Ward/Gardner against the Kansas City Chiefs (Week 12) and whoever the AFC serves up in the playoffs. That’s a potentially formidable combination at a position that has troubled the Colts in recent seasons.

“Now, when you go against a Philly, you have a chance against A.J. Brown,” a defensive coach from another team said.

When Gardner drove on the football and broke up a third-down pass from the Falcons’ Michael Penix Jr. to Drake London in Germany on Sunday, Colts fans could see one of the reasons the team jumped at the chance to make the trade. Gardner came oh-so-close to picking off the pass, and as Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner observed on the NFL Network broadcast, there wasn’t much Penix could have done differently. Gardner simply won that rep, breaking on the ball from depth to make an athletic play.

Sauce came this close to his first pick with the Colts

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The trade sent a strong signal to the Colts’ locker room that management is doing all it can to contend right now. The move rewarded Quenton Nelson, Grover Stewart, DeForest Buckner, Michael Pittman, Kenny Moore, Zaire Franklin, Braden Smith, Jonathan Taylor and everyone else who lived through some of the franchise’s darker days.

Though the first-round picks would be nice to have, the Colts won’t be picking early enough to have their choice of quarterbacks, and even if they were, the Anthony Richardson experience remains a strong deterrent. Daniel Jones is probably a better option than any quarterback the Colts might find elsewhere. Indy has also shown an ability to find key contributors after the first round of the draft. That includes four-fifths of a very good starting offensive line and star running back Taylor, among others.

“They were desperate for a corner, so I totally get it,” an exec from another team said. “The owner (Jim Irsay) died, they are going for it. Maybe they think they can move Anthony Richardson for something. That said, I’ve never been terribly impressed with Gardner. (Derek) Stingley was the corner from that draft we liked.”

If Gardner were Stingley, the Jets probably would have held onto him. The Colts got the cornerback they could get.

“I think the Jets made a mistake paying him (Gardner) and got out from under it,” an offensive coach said.

My fear for Indy is that the team paid a premium price for a not-quite-premium player at a position where a single star makes less impact than in the past.

Two decades ago, when the NFL’s base offense consisted of two backs with a blocking tight end and only two wide receivers, an elite cornerback could often take away half of the dangerous receiving options.

“You could put that player against Randy Moss in 2000 and hope he has three catches for 60 yards and a touchdown,” the defensive coach said. “You can’t do that now because George Kittle or Travis Kelce will have a 150-yard day. There’s enough talent spread out across the five eligible receivers.”

Now, teams align with three wide receivers on most downs. Their tight ends are more receivers than blockers. Halfbacks no longer wear oversized shoulder pads that signal their utility as sledgehammers. Offensive players have honed their receiving skills in seven-on-seven leagues. As a result, an elite corner playing in the modern NFL can take away a smaller fraction of the opponent’s pass game.

There are other considerations as well. If Gardner is going to travel with the best receiver on the other team, the Colts will have a harder time disguising coverages in an era when disguise has become increasingly important for defenses.

“If you travel them in zone, then everyone’s technique changes,” the defensive coach said. “If he has to play in the slot, then to not show the zone, other people go other places. The nickel has to play another position. Now it might bump two linebackers into other zone drops. You went maximum dollar expenditure, premier player, but do you want to give away man and zone pre-snap?”

3. The Dolphins have been full of surprises lately. What will owner Stephen Ross do next?

Good luck trying to figure out what Dolphins owner Stephen Ross is thinking.

The owner punished by the NFL for tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton also faced allegations that he offered $100,000 per loss to then-coach Brian Flores in a 2019 scheme to improve draft position. (An investigation funded by the league found Ross’ offer “was not intended or taken to be a serious offer.”)

“Ross doesn’t know what he wants to do himself, including (allegedly) asking people to lose games and trying to create Tom Brady prearranged bump-into-each-others at the marina,” a coach from another team said.

The Dolphins have pulled off two surprises recently.

Keeping coach Mike McDaniel while firing general manager Chris Grier, who had been with the team since 2000, bucked convention in a league where coaches, not GMs, are most vulnerable during the season. Routing Buffalo in Week 10, six days after firing Grier, was another development few saw coming.

What is going on in Miami?

The best theory I’ve heard so far suggests Ross wants to wait until after the 2026 season before deciding whether a full franchise reset — new coach, new GM, new quarterback — is the way to go.

Moving on from quarterback Tua Tagovailoa before then would be problematic from cash and salary cap standpoints.

Moving on from McDaniel would require Ross to admit he was wrong about a coach whose offense scored 70 points against Denver in 2023, the second-most points any team has scored in NFL history.

Ross has long admired McDaniel’s offensive scheming and thinks the coach can still provide a competitive advantage in that realm, according to a coach familiar with the Dolphins’ thinking. McDaniel is also the only coach to get high-level production from Tagovailoa.

“That’s why the head coach is gonna have a long runway to make it stick, and they’re trying to make it stick with Tua, because that’s in their best interest,” this coach said. “But if the coach and quarterback can’t make it work next year, then yeah, the owner comes in, flips everyone out, and starts fresh at quarterback, GM and head coach, which is what he should have done, but has never done.”

McDaniel’s offense averaged 0.27 EPA per play in the 30-13 victory over Buffalo. It was the eighth-best figure against the Bills in Sean McDermott’s tenure as Buffalo’s coach, a span of 154 total games. The Dolphins, who are less threatening with Tyreek Hill on injured reserve and unlikely to return in 2026, rank 22nd in EPA per play for the season.

“He doesn’t have the roster or the quarterback play to (score 70 points) right now,” another coach said.

4. Is baseball next for Kyler Murray? It’s hard to envision another NFL team giving up much for him, let alone assuring him a starting job.

The Cardinals’ decision to name Jacoby Brissett their starting quarterback (and later place Murray on injured reserve) didn’t matter in Week 10 against a red-hot Seahawks team in Seattle. Arizona might have lost that game with 2008 Kurt Warner at the offensive controls.

The QB switch matters very much in the big picture.

It’s clear the Arizona staff would rather bet its future on Brissett, a 32-year-old journeyman spot starter, than on Murray, the 2019 No. 1 draft choice earning seven times as much in annual salary. And for good reason.

“He gets the tight end (Trey McBride) more involved and clearly knows where to go with the football,” an opposing coach said. “The ball comes out quicker, the timing is better, everything.”

Brissett gives the Cardinals a chance to run their actual offense, which is heavy on under-center formations. The offense has also been more productive with him, even after the rough game at Seattle.

So, what’s next for Murray, who has $36.8 million in fully guaranteed salary next season? It seems unlikely the Cardinals would still have Murray on their roster on March 22, 2026, when $19.5 million in 2027 salary becomes fully guaranteed.

“I think they’re gonna have an awakening if they think they can get something for that kid somewhere else,” an exec from another team said.

Not that anyone would likely walk away from nearly $37 million, but would Murray even want to be a backup?

“Do you want him to be your backup in Cincinnati? In Pittsburgh?” another coach said. “These are completely different offenses. If you wanted to get your backup behind Lamar (Jackson), maybe? Is he done as a starter? It’s a fascinating question. Would Miami take him?”

Murray turns 29 before next season. The MLB’s Athletics own his baseball rights after using the ninth overall pick on him in 2018, before Murray had declared his intention to play football. The last time Murray played baseball, for the Oklahoma Sooners in 2018, he batted .296 with 10 home runs in 51 games as a centerfielder.

“Would the Jets consider him?” another exec asked. “He can go try baseball.”

5. The Jets won Sunday, but has first-year coach Aaron Glenn already lost?

The Jets, fresh off trading defensive starters Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams, found one of the least sustainable formulas for winning in their first game without either player, a 27-20 victory over the Cleveland Browns.

Two return touchdowns helped the Jets become the first NFL team since at least 1940 to win with fewer than 170 yards of offense and zero opponent turnovers, per Pro Football Reference.

The 1943 Detroit Lions were the last NFL team to avoid defeat under those circumstances. They settled for a scoreless tie against the Giants.

The point being, even in victory, the Jets remain a team with more questions than answers.

The two huge trades at the deadline gave the Jets ammunition to pursue a new quarterback after this season. Did those moves also suggest the balance of power has shifted within the organization after the team started 0-7 under Glenn, who had driven the decision to swap out Aaron Rodgers for Justin Fields, and who has struggled to make the defense much better?

“They win the offseason with the lack of noise around the program,” an exec from another team said. “They re-signed Sauce, they re-signed Garrett Wilson, they’re ready to roll, and what happens?”

The Jets lost their first seven. Owner Woody Johnson undercut Fields (and supported Glenn) with dismissive public comments. Glenn struggled with game management. He has bristled when reporters asked questions that annoyed him.

Then came the two huge trades no one saw coming.

Glenn, the clear point person in the organization as a former Jets first-round pick with a strong personality and the advantage of being hired before the GM, Darren Mougey, is in a less favorable position now.

“It’s turning there,” the exec said. “The GM is gonna start putting this team together, and the owner said, ‘Go ahead.’ I don’t think those players would have been traded if they had four or five wins.”

The Gardner and Williams trades suggested Glenn would need a longer runway to succeed. Will Johnson give him that? Will the quarterback decision and Glenn’s alleged handling of Rodgers count as a strike against the coach? It’ll take much longer to evaluate how Mougey uses the five first-round picks the team holds over the next two drafts.

“You would think the GM has a lot of juice now, but that is hard because the owner is always going to be a problem,” the exec said. “That’s the fight that he’s going to be up against.”

6. Two-minute drill: Red-hot Broncos not so hot

The Broncos’ seven-game winning streak has Denver on a track that appears similar, at least from afar, to the one coach Sean Payton followed in taking New Orleans to the Super Bowl in his fourth season with the Saints.

We see that in the chart below, which compares the Broncos’ cumulative point differential under Payton to that of the Payton-coached Saints from 2006 to ’09.

One huge difference: Payton’s Broncos have won mostly with defense, in spite of the offense he coordinates. The reverse was true with those early Payton-coached Saints teams.

New Orleans won it all after its defense started to catch up. Payton, in his third season with the Broncos, will need his offense to close the gap for Denver to get over the top.

As the Broncos struggled against the Raiders, you might have wondered how this team, of all teams, won seven in a row. The answer: barely.

Even with 28-3 and 44-24 victories over Cincinnati and Dallas, respectively, Denver has won by 8.2 points per game on average during its streak. That ranks 54th among the 58 teams with win streaks of exactly seven games since 1970, per Pro Football Reference.

Payton had Drew Brees in New Orleans. He’s got a struggling Bo Nix in Denver.

“It’s bad, but their trajectory is rarely linear, right?” a defensive coach said of Nix in relation to young quarterbacks in general. “It’s always a stock price.”

Nix’s stock was up last season. It’s down this season.

“He’s so up and down,” the coach said. “He’ll scramble for 30 and then throw it into the ground when it’s wide open on third-and-2. He’ll throw the nicest back-shoulder touchdown, and then he’ll take the bad sack.”

Brees had 58 starts and one Pro Bowl selection with the Chargers before the Saints signed him ahead of Payton’s first season. Nix is just getting started.

**• Pats’ seven-game streak better: **New England’s 28-23 victory over Tampa Bay extended the Patriots’ win streak to seven as well. They have won by 11.6 points per game on average, tied with the 1994 Steelers for 35th on that list of 58 seven-game streaks.

New England ranks second in EPA per play on offense and sixth on defense in its seven games since Week 4. Denver ranks 17th on offense and second on defense over that same span.

Running back TreVeyon Henderson and receiver Kyle Williams combined for three touchdowns of at least 50 yards for the Patriots against Tampa Bay, tripling the full-season total for the rest of the league by rookie Day 2 draft choices. Henderson had two, with runs of 55 and 69 yards. Williams had one, a 72-yard reception. Chicago’s Luther Burden III is the only other Day 2 rookie with one.

**• Dart’s inevitability: **The No. 1 takeaway from Jaxson Dart’s exciting debut game Sept. 28 was that Russell Wilson would be returning to the lineup unless Dart learned to protect himself. That time could be here after a concussion prevented Dart from finishing the Giants’ 24-20 loss to the Bears on Sunday.

The Giants lost more than their quarterback Sunday. They became only the second team since 2000 to blow double-digit leads and lose four times in the first 10 games of a season. The Chargers were also 2-4 in those games during their first 10 games of 2020.

New York is 0-4 in games it has led by at least 10 points on the road this season. The rest of the NFL is 50-7-1 in such games.

**• Bills’ malaise: **Buffalo played like a team that needed a jolt at the trade deadline and did not get it. Most in the league seem to think the Bills, after years of striving for a Super Bowl, are having a hard time staying motivated when the stakes are lower.

The team surged out of its bye, snapping a two-game skid by blowing out Carolina. The Bills were obviously “up” for their 28-21 victory over Kansas City in Week 9. Losing 30-13 at Miami recalled sleepy performances against New Orleans, New England and Atlanta.

**• Washington’s Jets connection: **A coach from another NFC team had an interesting read on the Commanders, who lost a fifth consecutive game Sunday, 44-22 to Detroit. Washington has gone from the NFC title game last season to 3-7 this season.

“You go into Year 1 and acquire a lot of free agents,” the coach said. “It reminds me of Rex Ryan with the Jets. ‘Let’s get L.T. (LaDainian Tomlinson), let’s get (Antonio) Cromartie, let’s get Bart Scott.’ Boom, contenders, championship game. Then you fall off the face of the earth.”

The Jets reached the AFC title game in each of Ryan’s first two seasons. They went 8-8, 6-10, 8-8, and 4-12 over the remainder of his tenure there.

Unlike Ryan, who had Mark Sanchez as his quarterback, Washington has had Jayden Daniels most of the past two seasons, but not as much this season. Daniels remains out indefinitely after suffering a dislocated elbow last week.

Another coach called Washington a “perfect storm” with a new owner, a push to build a new stadium and a leadership group featuring highly opinionated people such as basketball legend Magic Johnson.

**• Shough looking good: **Tyler Shough completed 70 percent of his passes with two touchdowns, no interceptions and a 10.4-yard average per attempt against Carolina in his second career start.

Shough was especially effective late in the down. That included a 62-yard touchdown pass to Chris Olave from inside the pocket (42 air yards, 3.2-second time to throw). Outside the pocket, he completed a 30-yard scoring strike to Juwan Johnson (19 air yards, 4.0-second time to throw) and a 52-yard completion to Johnson (20 air yards, 5.8-second time to throw).

Shining in your second start doesn’t necessarily mean much. Drew Lock and Case Keenum rank first and second over the past 15 seasons in EPA per pass play for a quarterback’s second career start. Kyle Allen ranks fourth, Curtis Painter ranks sixth and Jake Browning ranks seventh.

Shough’s performance ranks 23rd on that list of 128 second starts. It looked like a step forward for the player New Orleans selected in the second round.