Fernando Mendoza led Indiana on a last-minute game-winning drive at Penn State and has moved up in the odds to win the Heisman Trophy. Isaiah Vazquez / Getty Images

The Heisman Trophy is as much about narrative as it is about performance. Voters are swayed by significant moments that stick in the memory.

Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza had one of those moments in Saturday’s 27-24 win at Penn State. The moment probably belonged more to wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr., but it was Mendoza who drove his team down the field after the Hoosiers went down in the fourth quarter.

The fact that Mendoza’s overall numbers on the day were only so-so (19-of-30 for 218 yards with one passing touchdown) almost doesn’t matter. Neither does the fact that he had a costly interception earlier in the fourth quarter.

The big throw and catch are what people will remember from this game. It’s also why Mendoza is now the co-favorite to win the Heisman on BetMGM with +175 odds.

THROW OF THE YEAR! CATCH OF THE YEAR!

Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Omar Cooper Jr. make an unreal play for a go-ahead TD vs. Penn State with 36 seconds left.

🎥 @CFBONFOX pic.twitter.com/mX4qr3AOe1

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) November 8, 2025

Mendoza has been in the mix for most of the season, but was lacking a marquee performance or moment to drive his Heisman campaign. For a while, it looked like he might have to wait for the Big Ten Championship Game, presumably against Ohio State and the other co-favorite, Julian Sayin.

Sayin was the favorite going into the weekend and did nothing to lose the top spot in the Buckeyes’ 34-10 win at Purdue. He was 27-of-33 for 303 yards with a touchdown and an interception.

If Ohio State and Indiana are on a collision course in the Big Ten title game, it seems like Mendoza and Sayin could be playing for the Heisman in that game as well.

Indiana plays Wisconsin and Purdue, two teams with a combined one Big Ten win, and will be heavily favored in both games. Ohio State has UCLA and Rutgers, only a minor step up in competition, before facing Michigan in the regular-season finale. Sayin could make a statement against Michigan (or get derailed, given the last few results in that series). Otherwise, it’s all about Indianapolis.

Elsewhere, Alabama’s Ty Simpson and Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed are hanging around. Both quarterbacks guided their top-five teams to wins. Reed threw for two touchdowns and had 250 total yards in a comfortable 38-17 win at Missouri, where the Aggies’ defense did most of the damage early. Simpson didn’t lead the Alabama offense to a big output on the scoreboard in a 20-9 win, but did have some nice deep-ball highlights and finished with 277 yards and a touchdown on 21-of-35 passing.

These back-to-back throws from Ty Simpson 🔥 pic.twitter.com/QmgzLTUobr

— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) November 9, 2025

Simpson is +550 while Reed is +750. It would take some slip-ups from Sayin and Mendoza to open the door for these two, but they have a shot with some big performances down the stretch. Like Sayin and Mendoza, these two could meet in a conference title game with Heisman stakes. Alabama and Texas A&M are the only two SEC teams undefeated in conference play.

The next three contenders have much longer odds, and it would take something miraculous to get them into the race: Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (+2500), Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia (+2500) and Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton (+3000).

Nov 10, 2025

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Dan Santaromita is a senior editor for sports betting who has worked at The Athletic since 2021. Dan previously worked at NBC Sports Chicago and ProSoccerUSA. He is a University of Missouri graduate who resides in Chicago. Follow Dan on Twitter @TheDanSanto