Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles play against the Detroit Lions this week in a game with a sneaky good bet. Michael Reaves / Getty Images

Get your brooms out! My NFL Projection Model swept the board last week, and we are now up over eight units on the year and have a very impressive return on investment. Now, let’s pump the brakes a bit because I do not think these figures are sustainable, and we will ultimately come back down to earth. But if we can hit even a three percent return the rest of the way, this season will be a major success.

And just because I’m having a winning season doesn’t mean I’m going to stop firing plays that the model thinks are valuable. I’m not going to lower the volume to keep this winning season on the books. This week is starting off with a four-play card and maybe a play will get added later in the week, so stay posted.

Well, two unders and backing a horrible team, so this should be an excruciating weekend when it comes to rooting on this card. Either way, four bets to kick things off, and hopefully we can keep this hot streak going. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!

Last week’s record: 4-0, +4.02 units Season record: 29-19, +8.55 units, +16.3% ROI

NFL Week 11 best bets

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars under 44 (-109)

Worst price to bet: Under 44 (-115)

Without Joe Alt, the Chargers have been abysmal on offense this year. When Alt has been on the field for the Chargers this season, they rank inside the top seven in EPA per play and success rate. Without him, their EPA per play drops to 21st, and their success rate falls to 12th. A significant drop, no matter how you slice it. Sure, the Jaguars’ defense isn’t a great unit, and maybe the Chargers can find some success. But I also don’t think the Jaguars offense is going to be able to march down the field on this defense. Lawrence hasn’t been good this year, but he has been a tad bit better when facing the blitz. Similar to last week against Aaron Rodgers, the Chargers will be able to get pressure on Lawrence without blitzing. I have a hard time seeing many points scored in this game.

Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-118) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Worst price to bet: Rams -2.5 (-120)

I was on the Seahawks in a big way last week, and they found a way to put that game on ice well before halftime. They’ve been very impressive this season, and I consider them one of the best teams in the NFC. Unfortunately, they go on the road this week to face a team that my model has better than them. The biggest concern that I have for Seattle right now is that they’re benefitting from a lot of downfield throws, and whether that is going to continue to happen against quality defenses. In fact, they haven’t played too many defenses that I’d consider above average, so this will be a new test on the road. Either way, my model thinks the Rams are better and they’re at home.

Cleveland Browns +8.5 (-115) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Worst price to bet: Browns +7.5 (-110)

The Browns’ offense is horrible; there is no denying that. The defense is pretty good, of course. This is a lot of points for the Ravens to be laying on the road in a divisional game, and that’s before you get into asking yourself whether Lamar Jackson is 100 percent. Since his return from the hamstring injury, Lamar has not been able to hit explosive runs and didn’t rush for a single first down against the Vikings last week. That’s a concern for me when laying more than a touchdown on the road. Again, the Browns might not be able to score in this one, but I think the defense will keep them in it.

Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles under 49 (-110)

Worst price to bet: Under 48 (-110)

Our friends over at BetMGM have been kind enough to give us the best price in market on this under, and I will not be passing it up. At first glance, playing an under involving the Lions is always scary, but considering the upgrades the Eagles made on defense and the fact that their offense just hasn’t quite figured everything out on offense, getting into the 50s seems like a tall task. The key to stopping this Lions’ offense is getting pressure on Jared Goff — which is easier said than done — but when you do get to him, he turns into a bottom-third quarterback. The upgrades on defense at the trade deadline for the Eagles should allow them to get off the field enough to keep this game in the 40s.

Nov 11, 2025

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Austin Mock uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and rate performances in the NFL, college football, MLB and other sports. Follow Austin on Twitter @amock419