No league sells parity like the NFL: it’s the entire brand. But through 10 weeks of this season, this isn’t a league that is equally balanced between the good, the bad and the mediocre. It’s one where most of the league is simply *fine. *

In the NFC, at least, there is some clarity. The Rams and Seahawks (both 7-2) look like the most complete teams in football, and secured blowout wins on Sunday. The 6-2 Eagles, despite their struggles, still have one of the most talented rosters in the league, likewise with the Packers (5-2-1). Even the Lions (6-3), who have been inconsistent along both lines of scrimmage and have been dealing with tension on their coaching staff, have proven they can hammer good teams. For all five, you can still easily put together a Super Bowl path.

Over in the AFC, though, the playoff picture is a jumbled mess. Your four division leaders through ten weeks: the Colts, Patriots, Broncos (all at 8-2) and Steelers (5-4). Read that again. Not the Chiefs. Not the Bills. Not the Ravens or Bengals. The traditional powers, backed by the league’s best quarterbacks, have either glaring roster weaknesses or have been hit by injuries.

In some ways, it’s the league’s ideal; the parity mechanics are working as intended. But watching this year’s four division leaders in the AFC still feels strange. Areas of each team pass the championship smell test, but not in their entirety. If you were asked to lock in your AFC Championship game picks today, would you confidently pick any of the four division leaders?

Starting in Indianapolis, Daniel Jones hasn’t quite reached pumpkin status. But the last two weeks have been worrying. He’s back to turning over the ball and struggling against pressure. He took seven sacks against the Falcons on Sunday, and had a five-minute stretch in which he threw an interception and fumbled three times. This is a week after he turned the ball over five times against the Steelers.

The Colts’ offense thrived early in the season because Jones avoided the disaster plays. Jonathan Taylor and the offensive line mean the Colts are good enough to survive some negative plays, as they did in Berlin. But Jones returning to his old blunder-prone days would end any playoff run.

The Patriots feel somewhat similar. A year ago, they were a punchline. Now, they’re the league’s happiest surprise and the hottest team in football after seven straight wins. If not for fumbling away a winnable game against Pittsburgh, they’d be sitting at 9–1 with the best record in the league. Last season, they were old and slow. Now they’re young, fast and unafraid. Still, it’s hard to ignore how soft the Patriots’ schedule has been. They have faced the easiest slate in the league, and there have still been cracks. Drake Maye has been sacked 35 times – the second-most in football – and some of the shots he absorbed on Sunday were vicious. Over time, those beatings accumulate.

The Broncos are 8–2 as well, and it still feels as if they’re holding their breath. Bo Nix has been erratic, and the offense plodding, with the defense doing all the heavy lifting. Without serviceable quarterback play, the Broncos aren’t scaring anyone in the postseason. The Chargers are also hovering in the AFC West at 7-2, but the injuries along their offensive line will make it tough to mount a deep postseason tilt.

And then there’s Pittsburgh, somehow still leading the AFC North despite being thumped 25-10 by the Chargers on Sunday night. They have a negative point differential, their defense too often disappears and Aaron Rodgers’ limitations at this stage of his career continue to show up. They’re 5–4 and holding on, but Baltimore, with Lamar Jackson healthy again and the schedule softening, are on a three-game win streak. It shouldn’t be too much of a surprise that the Ravens have pulled within a game of the Steelers, but that it has arrived so quickly is an indictment of Pittsburgh’s inconsistencies. That the Ravens started the season 1-5 and still look like they should* *win the division is telling about the conference as a whole.

The Ravens’ form part of the Big Three – alongside the Bills and Chiefs – powered by their MVP quarterbacks, who would still strike the most fear in opposing teams if they made the playoffs. They’re the No One Wants To See ‘Em teams, but the Chiefs and Bills cannot get out of their own way.

A week ago, the Bills were riding high after beating the Chiefs. On Sunday they suffered one of the most disappointing losses of the season. They didn’t just lose to the Dolphins; they were embarrassed, falling 30-13 on the road. It was Miami’s first win against Buffalo in more than 1,000 days.

If you’re looking for a microcosm of the day, here you go: Josh Allen turning a quarterback sneak into a 15-yard run, before fumbling the ball away.

The Bills were blanked in the first half, coughing up costly turnovers. Receivers struggle to separate early, forcing Allen to hold on to the ball and chase a boom-or-bust approach that robs the offense of its typical tempo. On defense, there are even bigger concerns. They don’t have enough pass-rush juice to trouble most offenses consistently, their run defense has been a sieve all year and now their secondary is banged up.

The Chiefs, at 5–4, feel the same. The advanced metrics continue to paint them as a championship contender, thanks largely to Patrick Mahomes and the fact that each loss has been close. It’s almost the inverse of last year, when they started 9-0 but struggled through long portions of that run. And, on offense at least, the metrics are backed up by the eye test. But their pass-rush runs hot and cold and the offense is too overly reliant on Mahomes’ magic just to stick on schedule.

Add it all up, and the AFC is filled with teams simultaneously dangerous and flawed. The perennial contenders are still scratching around for some consistency. If the Patriots keep humming and the Chiefs cannot catch the Broncos, it will be the first time in the Allen-Mahomes era that the duo enter the postseason in the Wildcard Round. The NFC has recent history with wildcard teams winning it all, but the last AFC side to do so was the 2005 Steelers.

Maybe the Bills, Chiefs and Ravens all coalesce down the stretch. But it’s setting up to be a different kind of postseason in the AFC. The Patriots are the most well-rounded group at the moment, but it’s a long way to go from laughing stock to legitimate contender in 12 months.

Jonathan Taylor will leave Germany with fond memories of Berlin. Photograph: Martin Meissner/AP

MVP of the week

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts. Grab your placard. The campaign for a non-quarterback to win MVP chugs on. Taylor was back to his best on Sunday after a below-par performance in Pittsburgh last week. He rushed for a career-high 244 yards and scored three touchdowns, including a walk-off score, as the Colts beat the Falcons 31-25 in overtime in Berlin. After jumping out to an early first-quarter lead, the Colts’ offense spent two quarters stalling. Jones was shaky under relentless pressure from Atlanta’s front. So Shane Steichen did what good coaches do: he repeatedly put the ball in the hands of his best player. Taylor more than held up his end of the bargain, rushing for 228 yards after* *contact and forcing 11 missed tackles. It’s hard for a running back to be more valuable than that.

Video of the week

Now for the latest installment of Stuff We Don’t Normally See: Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson checked with his coaching staff mid-play about whether it was OK for him to score a late touchdown.

With the Patriots leading by five with under two minutes to play, they set up to run the ball and drain the clock. Henderson gathered a toss from Maye, shook off a would-be tackler and broke into open space along the Bucs’ sideline. As he pulled away from a gaggle of defenders, Henderson slowed down, swerved towards the middle of the field and turned to Mike Vrabel on the opposite side of the field to get permission to score. The coaching staff obliged, allowing Henderson to complete the 69-yard touchdown rather than downing the ball to run out the clock.

It capped off the long-awaited Henderson breakout game. He ripped off two long touchdown runs against an excellent Tampa defense and finished with 147 yards on 14 carries in a 28-23 win.

Matthew Stafford has the Los Angeles Rams flying. Photograph: Jed Jacobsohn/AP

Stat of the week

20. That’s how many touchdowns Matthew Stafford has thrown in the last six games – while giving up zero interceptions. He also has more touchdowns (25) this season than he did in the whole of his last campaign (21). The 37-year-old seems to be getting better as he approaches 40, keeping the amazing throws he has always been capable of, while cutting down on mistakes. “MVP!” Davante Adams shouted at Stafford as he was interviewed on Fox after Sunday’s 42-26 win over the 49ers. Stafford just smiled – at 7-2 the Rams look like a realistic Super Bowl contender.

The New York Jets have won two games in a row. Photograph: Brooks Von Arx/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock

Elsewhere around the league

– The New York Jets are undefeated in the post-Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams era! The Jets traded the two All-Pros last week for a parcel of future draft picks. On Sunday, they won their second game in a row – this one 27-20 against the Browns – mainly thanks to their special teams: they scored on punt and kickoff returns. There were questions about how motivated the Jets roster would be after the front office jettisoned two of their best players, but they fought impressively against the Browns’ strong defence – many inspired by the pre-game tributes to Nick Mangold, their longtime center who died in October at the age of 41. “Nick was with us today,” said safety Tony Adams. “We had a kick return and a punt return [for touchdowns]. Kind of crazy. That’s nobody but God and the man himself, Nick.”

– Davis Mills, who looked set for an uneventful if well-paid life on the Texans bench once CJ Stroud took over as starting quarterback in Houston, had his most notable day as a professional on Sunday. Starting because of Stroud’s concussion, Mills looked as if he was leading the Texans to a loss when they trailed 29-10 in the fourth-quarter. But the Texans reeled off 26 points – including a 14-yard touchdown run by Mills to give his team the lead – as they pulled off a 36-29 win to keep their playoff hopes just about alive.

– After reports emerged Donald Trump wants the Commanders to name their new stadium after him, the president attended the team’s 44-22 loss to the Lions on Sunday. After Trump was booed by large parts of the stadium, Fox gave him nearly 10 minutes of air time in the broadcast booth to talk about his high school football career and the NFL in general. Those bits were fairly inoffensive but Fox then decided to give him what was effectively free rein to boast about his achievements when Jonathan Vilma asked him about the state of the country. As Trump definitely didn’t stick to sports he touted the record stock market, investment in America and said he had brought down prices for Americans, a claim even his most diehard fans would treat with suspicion.