As Europe grapples with overtourism protests, record-breaking heat waves, and soaring summer prices, a quiet revolution is reshaping the continent’s travel landscape. Fall has emerged as the new sweet spot for European tourism, with travelers increasingly abandoning the traditional July-August peak season for the tranquil charm and economic advantages of autumn travel.

The numbers tell a compelling story: 22% of Europeans now plan trips in September, nearly matching the 25% who choose July and August, according to recent European Travel Commission data. This dramatic shift represents a fundamental change in European tourism patterns, driven by a perfect storm of climate concerns, overtourism fatigue, and economic pressures.

The Statistics Behind the Shift

European tourism demonstrated remarkable resilience during the autumn months of 2024, with the shoulder season (September-October) showing robust performance that continued into winter. Foreign arrivals to Europe rose 6.3% over 2019 levels in the fourth quarter, while overnight stays grew by 5.9% above pre-pandemic figures.

The trend extends beyond mere preference surveys. Travel companies report concrete booking shifts, with Intrepid Travel noting a 61% increase in shoulder season reservations to Western Europe last year. Budget accommodations have seen particularly strong performance, with a&o Hostels reporting 78% room occupancy across their European portfolio during fall 2024.

According to the latest “Monitoring Sentiment for Intra-European Travel” report, 77% of Europeans intend to take at least one trip between June and November, with 55% actively seeking less popular destinations for their next holiday, up from 48% in spring 2025.

Drivers of the Autumn Boom

Climate Change and Extreme Weather The primary catalyst for this shift has been Europe’s increasingly volatile summer climate. Recent years have brought record-breaking heat waves, devastating wildfires across Greece during the hottest June and July on record, and scorching temperatures that make traditional sightseeing uncomfortable or even dangerous.

“People have basically noticed, jeez, I can go to these places in September, October, and they’re far nicer, not as hot,” explained Paul Tumpowsky, chief revenue officer at Fora Travel. “And far less crowded.”

Overtourism Backlash The summer of 2024 saw unprecedented protests against overtourism in Barcelona and Mallorca, while cities like Rome introduced “selfie stoplights” to manage crowds at major attractions. Venice implemented a €5 tourist tax for visitors arriving during the busiest days, effectively promoting shoulder season travel.

Concern about “too many tourists” at preferred locations has risen 3% since summer 2024, with choosing less crowded destinations now a priority for 11% of travelers, up 4% from last year.

Economic Considerations Financial factors play a crucial role in the shoulder season surge. Hotel prices in Europe’s top destinations have reached unsustainable levels for many travelers, with 23% of European travelers citing rising costs as their biggest concern in 2023-24.

Hopper data shows that airfare to Europe from the United States between October 20 and December 8 averages $560-$630 per ticket, down 9% from the previous year and 5% compared to the same timeframe in 2019. Average nightly accommodation rates in the top 10 European cities drop by 27% in December compared to June peak rates.

Demographic Drivers

The shift toward autumn travel reflects changing demographics and lifestyle patterns. Europeans aged 55 and above account for the strongest travel demand in coming months, with 82% planning trips, closely followed by 79% of Europeans aged 45-54. These demographics often have greater flexibility in scheduling travel outside traditional school vacation periods.

Gen Z travelers have also embraced the trend, with searches up 26% for fall travel. Over 80% of Gen Z respondents in a recent survey say affordability plays a role in their fall travel decisions, with 42% believing that traveling during fall offers great value.

Regional Success Stories

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Italy Leads the Way Italy has emerged as a standout success story, capturing 13.4% of European travel intentions for the next six months and demonstrating particular strength in off-season tourism. The country’s cultural tourism, nature-based experiences, and gastronomy continue to attract visitors year-round, with autumn and winter travel providing new opportunities to explore without crowds.

More in Business

Italian destinations like Tuscany during truffle season and the Amalfi Coast in October have become poster children for the shoulder season movement, offering 75-degree weather, uncrowded restaurants, and traffic-free exploration.

Mediterranean Destinations Adapt Croatia has seen significant growth in tourism during May and September, with visitors preferring to avoid the summer crowds that descend on Dubrovnik and Split during peak season. Greece has embraced the trend, with Athens and the Greek islands experiencing surges in shoulder season visitors.

Portugal has successfully marketed Lisbon and Porto as year-round destinations, capitalizing on milder weather and cultural events that attract tourists in spring and autumn.

Northern Europe Gains Ground Surprisingly, Northern European destinations including Denmark, Sweden, Finland, and the Netherlands are experiencing growth in shoulder season travel. These countries benefit from milder weather patterns and unique cultural offerings during autumn months, with Denmark’s “CopenPay” initiative rewarding sustainable travel behaviors during off-peak periods.

Industry Response

Airlines are adapting their strategies to accommodate the demand shift. Delta Air Lines executives note they were “always creating that ‘church for Easter Sunday’ for June, July, August,” and are now working to “spread that out a little bit more” throughout the year.

United Airlines plans to end its peak summer schedule a week earlier, citing “more balanced demand levels across more of the year.” This reflects industry recognition that shoulder season travel is becoming a permanent feature rather than a temporary trend.

The Experience Advantage

Beyond economic benefits, autumn travel offers qualitative advantages that appeal to modern travelers. European shoulder seasons provide “quiet luxury and cultural experiences for older travelers, while also having adventure activities to attract younger tourists,” according to tourism experts.

Fall foliage transforms destinations like Scotland’s highlands and the Alps into spectacular displays of color. October in Italy brings truffle season, while autumn harvest festivals across Europe offer authentic cultural experiences without the tourist masses.

The season also provides ideal conditions for active tourism. Average temperatures in destinations like the Amalfi Coast hover around 75°F in early October, perfect for hiking, cycling, and outdoor exploration without the exhaustion-inducing heat of summer.

Challenges and Considerations

The shoulder season shift isn’t without complications. Some destinations still observe traditional tourism seasons, with museums and attractions maintaining reduced hours or closing entirely during traditionally off-peak periods. However, many locations are extending their operating seasons to capitalize on growing autumn demand.

Weather can be less predictable during shoulder seasons, requiring travelers to maintain flexibility and pack for variable conditions. Some seaside towns in smaller destinations may close for the season, making research essential for trip planning.

Looking Ahead

The European Travel Commission predicts this trend will continue growing, with 73% of Europeans planning to travel between October 2024 and March 2025, up 6% compared to the same period last year.

“We are witnessing positive trends, such as a growing focus on off-season travel, which helps distribute tourism demand more evenly throughout the year,” said ETC President Miguel Sanz. “Looking ahead, sustaining this momentum will require strategic investments in diversified offerings to ensure continued performance and competitiveness.”

As climate change continues to affect summer travel conditions and overtourism concerns mount, fall appears positioned to become Europe’s new prime travel season. For travelers willing to trade guaranteed sunshine for authentic experiences, comfortable temperatures, and significant savings, autumn Europe offers an increasingly attractive alternative to the traditional summer European vacation.

The transformation reflects broader changes in how and when people travel, with flexibility, authenticity, and value increasingly trumping the conventional wisdom of peak season tourism. As one travel expert noted, “If you could be on the Amalfi Coast the first week in October, you’d be pumped, the restaurants are not crowded, there’s no traffic, and it is gorgeous.”