For once, Earth isn’t the one in the crosshairs.
NASA scientists have confirmed that a fast-moving asteroid first spotted by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile could hit the Moon on December 22, 2032, a rare, natural event that has researchers both cautious and excited.
The object, known as asteroid 2024 YR4, was first observed in late December 2024. Roughly the size of a 15-story building, it raised alarm bells in early 2025 when refined orbital models showed up to a 3% chance of striking Earth. By late February, though, additional observations ruled out any Earth impact. Instead, new projections show the asteroid has about a 4% chance of coming close enough to strike the Moon.
No threat to Earth, but a spectacle for science
If it does in fa…
For once, Earth isn’t the one in the crosshairs.
NASA scientists have confirmed that a fast-moving asteroid first spotted by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile could hit the Moon on December 22, 2032, a rare, natural event that has researchers both cautious and excited.
The object, known as asteroid 2024 YR4, was first observed in late December 2024. Roughly the size of a 15-story building, it raised alarm bells in early 2025 when refined orbital models showed up to a 3% chance of striking Earth. By late February, though, additional observations ruled out any Earth impact. Instead, new projections show the asteroid has about a 4% chance of coming close enough to strike the Moon.
No threat to Earth, but a spectacle for science
If it does in fact strike the Moon, NASA says there’s no reason for panic. The impact wouldn’t pose any danger to Earth, even if small fragments of debris drift our way. According to NASA planetary defense experts, any lunar debris entering Earth’s atmosphere would burn up long before reaching the ground.
At worst, it could trigger a short-lived meteor shower, lighting up the night sky for a few hours, a spectacle for stargazers rather than a threat to safety.
But for NASA, the event would be scientifically priceless. Impacts like this are rarely caught in real time, and a collision visible from Earth would allow researchers to study how debris spreads and how the Moon’s surface absorbs energy. Essentially, it’s a front-row seat to the kind of cosmic event that shaped the solar system billions of years ago.
“The Moon is our archive,” one NASA researcher explained. “Every crater is a chapter in its history. If we get to watch one form live, that’s extraordinary.”
A real-world test for planetary defense
Asteroid YR4 has already proven valuable for planetary defense response systems. After the asteroid’s discovery raised initial impact concerns in early 2025, NASA activated its Planetary Defense Coordination Office and mobilized the International Asteroid Warning Network, bringing together multiple telescopes worldwide for rapid observation and data analysis.
This rapid-response capability is part of an evolving strategy that began with DART, the 2022 mission that successfully nudged an asteroid off course. Where DART proved we could redirect a space rock, YR4 demonstrated how quickly the planetary defense community can respond to emerging threats, refining orbit calculations from uncertain to precise within weeks instead of months.
That agility will prove critical going forward. Every time a new asteroid crosses the radar, the data gets sharper, the models more reliable, and the response faster.
What’s next for YR4
Astronomers will get another close look at YR4 in 2028, when it swings back into view for more precise measurements. They’ll study its shape, composition, and density — key details in understanding how it moves and whether the Moon is truly in its path.
Even if YR4 misses, it will continue passing near the Earth-Moon system through the 2030s, giving scientists plenty of chances to refine their predictions.
It’s a reminder of how alive our solar system really is. The Moon, quiet and unchanging to the naked eye, is constantly shaped by invisible events: collisions, dust impacts, cosmic debris. Most go unnoticed. This one, though, might leave a scar we can actually see.
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And if that happens, humanity will get to watch, study, and maybe feel just a little humbled, knowing that even our oldest neighbor isn’t safe from the universe’s restless energy.
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