The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently issued its weather predictions for the upcoming season, and it looks like many regions of the United States are likely to experience warmer, drier conditions this winter. Among them is North Carolina, which has already been dealing with drought this fall.

What’s happening?

NOAA’s models for December 2025 through February 2026 indicate that “a weak La Niña is expected to continue into winter,” according to North Carolina-based WLOS News 13.

La Niña is one of a pair of climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that has a substantial impact on the weather. When Pacific Ocean waters are cooler than usual, the Pacific Northwest experiences cooler, wetter weather, while the southern United States experiences hotter, drier conditions.

WLOS reported that Asheville typically receives around 11 to 12 inches of snow each year. Unfortunately for winter-weather lovers and for the environmentally concerned, NOAA’s predictions indicate that North Carolina is likely to experience warmer-than-average temperatures this season and below-average precipitation.

Already a concern in its own right, a forecast of reduced snowfall could extend the impact of the state’s ongoing drought. As the Raleigh-based News & Observer reported in late October, “most of the state is abnormally dry or in drought after weeks of below-average rainfall and headed for what may be a thirsty fall and winter.”

Why is this concerning?

The errant dry year or one-off warm year is not unheard of. But most scientists now generally agree that human activity — such as the burning of fossil fuels as a dirty energy source, deforestation, and more — is driving global temperatures higher and higher.

The warming of our planet has wide-ranging consequences. These include the supercharging of weather events, such as extreme heat and drought, each with its own cascade of negative effects. And with North Carolina, like other regions, already experiencing abnormally dry and drought conditions, the lack of snowfall this winter is additionally concerning.

The snowpack — an accumulation of snow on the ground that melts seasonally — serves as an essential natural reservoir. Less snow stored up over winter can lead to reduced water reserves far into spring and summer, with potential impacts on agriculturally important growing seasons and on drinking water supplies year-round.

Hotter, drier conditions can also exacerbate wildfire risk. North Carolina has already seen 4,866 wildfires in 2025.

What’s being done?

The North Carolina Drought Management Advisory Council has provided guidance for those already experiencing abnormally dry, moderate drought, and severe drought conditions across the state. Residents are advised to follow their areas’ prescribed “drought response actions,” which may include staying informed, inspecting water delivery systems for leaks, and limiting or even eliminating nonessential water use, depending on location.

For those who also feel called to take steps toward long-term mitigation, making the shift to cleaner, more renewable energy sources might be on the to-do list. Installing solar panels at home is one way to help reduce the heat-trapping pollution that drives extreme weather. The process can feel overwhelming, but EnergySage offers a free online service to help connect prospective buyers with vetted local installers and compare quotes, with the potential to save customers up to $10,000 on installation.

State lawmakers have meanwhile been working to strengthen North Carolina’s commitment to the clean energy transition at the governmental level. For example, the state passed House Bill 951 in 2021, outlining strategies to move away from dirty energy sources and toward cleaner, more sustainable alternatives. The bill also set the goal of reducing the state’s generation of heat-trapping pollution by 70 percent (compared to 2005 levels) by 2030.

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Some lawmakers sought in 2025 to eliminate that 2030 goal with Senate Bill 266. However, Governor Josh Stein vetoed it in July, saying, in a statement, “we need to diversify our energy portfolio so that we are not overly reliant on natural gas and its volatile fuel markets.”

Underscoring the fiscal implications of backing away from cleaner energy, he continued, “Additionally, this bill walks back our state’s commitment to reduce carbon emissions, sending the wrong signal to businesses that want to be a part of our clean energy economy.”

Indeed, with drinking water supplies and agricultural production also on the line due to drought and higher temperatures, the considerations for local economic impacts are multiple.

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