On October 21, 2025, on the sidelines of the Financial Times Africa Summit in London, I sat with the CNBC folks for a broad conversation about South African and Southern African agricultural developments and trade.

On trade matters, I highlighted that for its export diversification strategy, South Africa is looking at broadening exports to Asia and the Middle East. The natural and fair question that followed was: What is our strategy for Africa?

Africa’s central role in SA’s agricultural exports

The African continent remains vital to South Africa’s agriculture, accounting for roughly half of our annual exports. We exported about $13.7bn (R237bn) to the world market in 2024, and I suspect this year our agricultural exports will cross the $14bn mark for the first time.

Africa has been central to this export growth, particularly the Southern Africa region. Roughly 90c in every dollar of South Africa’s agricultural exports to the African continent are to Southern African countries. These are mainly in the Southern Africa Customs Union (Sacu) and the Southern African Development Community (Sadc) Free Trade Area.

We will likely remain heavily dominant in these regions for some time, but the growth is limited. We are not as strong in other parts of the continent.

The product scope of agricultural exports into Sacu and Sadc is quite diverse. It includes maize, processed food products, apples and pears, sugar, animal feed, prepared or bottled water, fruit juices and wine.

The question is how much more can South Africa export beyond the Sacu/Sadc region, and what is our attitude towards greater Africa?

Beyond Southern Africa: limits and opportunities

The most reasonable assumption is for South Africa to target West, East, and North Africa. But such an expansion has limits.

For a start, Africa north of the Sahara, more specifically Algeria, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia, is much closer to Europe and its trade activity is more closely linked to the EU than Sub-Saharan Africa.

North Africa, more specifically Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia, is much closer to Europe and its trade activity is more closely linked to the EU than Sub-Saharan Africa. Establishing a market presence in North Africa may prove challenging due to direct competition with well-established EU supply chains and competitive local produce.

South Africa’s realistic opportunity within the African continent is more likely in East and West Africa. Leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)’s tariff-free movement of goods would potentially boost the country’s agricultural exports to these regions. But, at least in the near term, trade with these regions may not yield many benefits for South Africa.

There are at least three reasons. First, East and West Africa have a range of non-tariff barriers, which could hinder boosting trade regardless of lower tariffs through AfCFTA. Second, high levels of corruption, which increase the costs of doing business, have proven to be a significant concern. Third, fragmented value chains owing to poor connectivity and infrastructure are a major contributor to transport costs.

This narrow scope of expanding agricultural exports in the African continent typically leads to frustration among business leaders, who continue to see improvement in domestic production but are limited in avenues for sales. The major economies in the east and west of the continent, Nigeria and Kenya, remain tiny markets for South Africa’s agricultural exports, each accounting for a mere 2% a year.

Still, Nigeria spends over $6 billion on agricultural imports a year. The key beneficiaries of the Nigerian agriculture market are Brazil, the US, China, Russia, Canada, New Zealand and Germany. This is through imports of wheat, dairy products, sugar, processed food, palm oil and maize, among other products.

Meanwhile, Kenya is a relatively small market with just over $2bn worth of agriculture and food imports a year. The key suppliers are Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina, Russia, Pakistan, Uganda, Tanzania, India and Egypt. Kenya’s key agriculture and food imports are palm oil, wheat, rice, sugar, processed food, maize, dairy products, pasta and sorghum.

Shifting focus to Asia and the Middle East

Therefore, South Africa will play a more maintenance approach rather than hoping for further expansion in the African continent. The near-term growth areas in our assessment are the Middle East and Asian countries. The growing population and better income levels in these regions are among the key indicators.

When South African leaders are in Asia, visiting countries such as Vietnam, China, Malaysia, and India, it is important to consider the implications. Equally, when our leaders are in the Middle East the conversation should focus on export diversification. Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz).

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