Kevin Warsh’s record shows a former crisis-era Fed hawk who now appears more open to rate cuts, creating uncertainty about how he would balance inflation risks with President Trump’s push for lower interest rates.

His long-standing skepticism of quantitative easing and forward guidance suggests he may favor a smaller Fed balance sheet and less predictable policy communication, with potential consequences for markets and mortgage rates.

Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s pick to run the Federal Reserve, left a long track record when he served as Fed governor from 2006 to 2011.

Not all of that history is instructive for gauging his views today. Warsh was a hawk after the 2008 financial crisis, supporting the Fed’s extraordinary moves to halt the panic but arguing for a quicker removal once fears eased.

In recent years, he’s adopted a more dovish tone—aligning with Trump’s view that interest rates should be lower. It’s a dichotomy that market analysts will watch closely over Warsh’s four-year term after he replaces Fed Chair Jerome Powell in mid-May.

“We do believe Warsh will likely be a proponent of rate cuts in 2026, but the main question is whether his former hawkish persona makes a comeback down the road,” wrote Oscar Munoz, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities.

Kevin Warsh’s leadership could influence interest rates, mortgage costs, and market stability for years to come.

There are consistent themes in Warsh’s years of speeches and remarks at Federal Open Market Committee meetings—where, at 35, he was the youngest member ever when he joined. They’ll come up as the Senate weighs whether to approve Trump’s nomination of Warsh, who was an economic adviser to President George W. Bush before joining the Fed in 2006.

Warsh, now a fellow at the conservative Hoover Institution, has long been critical of the Fed’s growing footprint in bond markets. It’s a view that clashes with the Fed’s current approach—despite paring back its COVID-era bond purchases, the central bank’s balance sheet is now at nearly $6.6 trillion. Further unwinding could raise mortgage rates, analysts say.

Warsh has long worried about inflation, which didn’t pose a problem after the crisis as he warned, but did surge a decade later.

And he has also shown a pragmatic streak. The former Morgan Stanley banker and lawyer gave the economist-heavy Fed insights into markets during the depths of the crisis—and voted for a few policies he disagreed with to show consensus.

Warsh was a skeptic of the Fed’s quantitative easing programs, in which the Fed bought large amounts of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities.