🔮 Forecasting - buckman · Scour

The Sweet Lure of Prediction Arb: How I Tried to Speedrun a Rust Monitor (and Fried My Brain) 🦀Rust

dev.to·3d·DEV

Prediction market accuracy: crowd wisdom or informed minority? • SSRN 📈Prediction Markets

papers.ssrn.com·2h

France's forecasting office refers suspected weather sensor tampering at Paris airport to police, after detecting unusual readings alongside Polymarket betting ... 🪟ETW Patching

techmeme.com·2d

Only 3% of traders drive prediction markets' accuracy, not the crowd, study finds 📊Quant Trading

coindesk.com·9h

Outsider Trading 💰Zero-Day Markets

kneelingbus.substack.com·2d·Substack

Is AI Cannibalizing Human Intelligence? A Neuroscientist's Way to Stop It 🤨AI Criticism

news.slashdot.org·18h

Introducing the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub 🏦Economy

lesswrong.com·5d

Kalshi and Polymarket are racing to ban insider trading. The economist who built the theory behind prediction markets says it’s the whole point 🏛️Epistemic Institutions

·11h·r/Economics

AI traders are already testing prediction markets—and losing money 📈Algorithmic Trading

fastcompany.com·2d

“Like nailing jell-o to a wall”: Why unions are struggling to protect journalists’ rights in the age of AI 📰News

reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk·1d

Macro trends in the tech industry 💻Technology

thoughtworks.com·6d

What Are Prediction Markets, and Why Are They Causing Controversy? 📈Prediction Markets

·2d

Construction Costs Rarely Fall 🏘️Housing Economics

construction-physics.com·3d

Your Pipeline Is 25.3h Behind: Catching Business Sentiment Leads with Pulsebit 📡RSS Feeds

dev.to·23h·DEV

Who will win Premier League title? The big prediction special ⚽Soccer

I Built a Live Subscription Dashboard on RevenueCat's Charts API in One HTML File 💰API Monetization

netlify.com·3d·DEV

AI safety can be a Pascal's mugging even if p(doom) is high 🛡️AI Security

lesswrong.com·1d

Last Week Tonight takes on prediction markets 📈Prediction Markets

nbcsports.com·5d

Will someone please please write a properly apocalyptic forecast about the UK for The Telegraph to parse? 📰News

·3d

Evaluating large language models for accuracy incentivizes hallucinations 🧠LLM Training

·4d

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