🔮 Forecasting - buckman · Scour

The Sweet Lure of Prediction Arb: How I Tried to Speedrun a Rust Monitor (and Fried My Brain) 🦀Rust

dev.to·3d·DEV

Prediction market accuracy: crowd wisdom or informed minority? • SSRN 📈Prediction Markets

papers.ssrn.com·10h

France's forecasting office refers suspected weather sensor tampering at Paris airport to police, after detecting unusual readings alongside Polymarket betting ... 🪟ETW Patching

techmeme.com·2d

Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecast as war disruption drags on 🛢️Commodities

·1h

Only 3% of traders drive prediction markets' accuracy, not the crowd, study finds 📊Quant Trading

coindesk.com·17h

Outsider Trading 💰Zero-Day Markets

kneelingbus.substack.com·2d·Substack

Introducing the Labor Automation Forecasting Hub 🏦Economy

lesswrong.com·5d

Kalshi and Polymarket are racing to ban insider trading. The economist who built the theory behind prediction markets says it’s the whole point 🏛️Epistemic Institutions

·19h·r/Economics

Is AI Cannibalizing Human Intelligence? A Neuroscientist's Way to Stop It 🤨AI Criticism

news.slashdot.org·1d

AI traders are already testing prediction markets—and losing money 📈Algorithmic Trading

fastcompany.com·2d

Macro trends in the tech industry 💻Technology

thoughtworks.com·6d

What Are Prediction Markets, and Why Are They Causing Controversy? 📈Prediction Markets

·2d

I Built a Live Subscription Dashboard on RevenueCat's Charts API in One HTML File 💰API Monetization

netlify.com·4d·DEV

Construction Costs Rarely Fall 🏘️Housing Economics

construction-physics.com·3d

AI safety can be a Pascal's mugging even if p(doom) is high 🛡️AI Security

lesswrong.com·1d

Bayes' theorem in machine learning 🎲Bayesian Inference

dev.to·1d·DEV

Last Week Tonight takes on prediction markets 📈Prediction Markets

nbcsports.com·6d

Evaluating large language models for accuracy incentivizes hallucinations 🧠LLM Training

·4d

Prediction Markets Will Become An Essential Tool In Investor Portfolios 📈Prediction Markets

pomp.substack.com·5d·Substack

The Art of Strategic Reinvention: Staying Relevant as Customer Expectations Shift ♾️Systems Thinking

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