Published on December 27, 2025 5:27 AM GMT

Help me settle this debate.

There was recently a post on here by a bright young guy about how it felt staring into the abyss, so to speak, and confusion about what next steps to take, knowing you really only get one shot. Quite a few others commented about how they’re in a similar situation, but there was no consensus on how to proceed, given a shortened timeline (however long it may be). And given there are far more lurkers than posters, I suspect there are lots of people with these concerns but no concrete answers.

The canonical, impact-maximizing solutions are to “spread awareness” and “learn to code and work your way into a lab”, which could have worked in the past, but seem to fall short today. With a non-target degree, proving your merit seems infeasible. Furthermore, it’s not clear you can upskill or lobby or earn to give fast enough to contribute anything meaningful in time.

If the hour really has come, and contributing to the cause is unlikely, self-preservation becomes the goal. Western social safety nets (and culture in general) require immense future incomes that are far from guaranteed; “we used to be happy as farmers” is true, but avoids the problem. The jury’s out on exactly how long we have, but I think whatever percentage you put on, say, AGI by 2027, it exceeds the threshold for a rational actor to make big changes. A new plan is needed.

There doesn’t seem to be any conventional defense against shortened timelines. The advice given by the people will benefit from the incoming tidal wave of automation - the managers, the team leads - has ranged from “work on what you’re interested in” to “I’ll be retired when that becomes a problem.” In the old world, it was okay to spend on grad school or try things out, because you had your entire life to work for a salary, but we face the real possibility that there’s only a few years (if that) to climb out of the bucket.

Frankly, it’s a little thrilling to consider this, in a Wild West, “the action is the juice” way. But there’s a needle that needs to be threaded.

What’s the best path forward? Specifically, what can a young adult without target credentials (but the drive and ability to punch in that weight class) do to stay afloat? We go back and forth on this, our group of college seniors.

One faction asserts it’s still possible to scramble up the career ladder faster than the rungs get sawn off; artificial reasoning and automation won’t develop uniformly, and there’s still space to get a foothold due to frictions like slow business adoption and regulations.

The other says, look, it’s past time, that the only way out is to throw it all out and start building, that earning from labor rather than capital is tethering yourself to a sinking boat, and the few months of head start you get from being diligent won’t make a difference.

The first group counters. Competing in the online entrepreneurship space is exposing yourself to the most brutal arena in the free market, and even in the 99th percentile best outcome, you’d work far harder for a wage equivalent to the white collar worker, with far more volatility.

Sure, the second group says, but it’s worth it for the Hail Mary chance at making something great and escaping the permanent underclass. Anything else and you’re guaranteeing your demise; any capital you’d squirrel away won’t budge the needle of the utility function of the future. The premium on intelligence and knowledge is only going to fall, and it’s better to harness this than be a victim of it.

There isn’t an option other than a career, claims the first, because the startup market’s already saturated. Without domain knowledge, connections, and experience, there’s nowhere to even begin, and anything you could come up with will get wiped out once a serious institution enters the ring.

It’s only going to get far worse as honest, hardworking people get let go, replies the second. We can find a way, a gap in the market, but we have to hunker down and go all-in now. We can cut our own slice of the growing pie.

And on it goes, with no apparent verdict. We debate not out of spite, but out of a mutual concern that the ground is giving way under our feet. We gladly welcome your perspectives, to help both us and those in similar situations keep fighting forward.