China’s robust export performance accounted for 32.7 per cent of GDP growth in 2025, offsetting subdued domestic demand and weak consumption. Although this momentum is expected to persist in 2026, it carries geopolitical risks. To secure sustainable prosperity, China must ignite its stock market as a catalyst for entrepreneurial confidence and consumer-driven growth.

At the dawn of 2026, the Shanghai Stock Exchange surged past 4,100 points, extending gains after its 10-year high last year. Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, a wave of AI-driven start-ups from mainland China – including Biren Technology, Knowledge Atlas Technology, GigaDevice Semiconductor and MiniMax Group – launched initial public offerings that captured investor enthusiasm and sent share prices soaring. Together, these developments have injected fresh dynamism into China’s capital markets.

The strong kick-off of the stock market in 2026 is a potential stimulus for the broader economy. A thriving equity market can reinforce entrepreneurial confidence, lift consumer sentiment and channel capital towards domestic industries. This will help to expand consumption’s share of gross domestic product, providing a counterbalance to export-driven growth.

In this way, despite being burdened with geopolitical risks, China’s export resilience can be complemented by a booming stock market that anchors sustainable prosperity.

China’s record-breaking trade surplus of nearly US$1.2 trillion last year marks a milestone, underscoring decades of industrial expansion that have transformed the country into the world’s most advanced manufacturing powerhouse. This achievement has not gone unnoticed as concerns are rising across the Global South. The fear surrounding China’s rising trade surplus was palpable at Davos, as recounted by a Chinese executive who attended multiple sessions and described the unease he witnessed.

Still, China’s surplus must be assessed with greater objectivity. In 2025, China’s current account surplus reached 1.01 per cent of global GDP – the largest ever in raw dollar terms. While the headline figure is striking, we should note that historically, Japan in the late 1980s and Germany in the 2010s also ran massive trade surpluses.