“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” — Alan Kay

10 min readJan 4, 2026

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But in 2026, first, you need to read the future correctly.

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Uncertainty Is No Longer Temporary — The New Geopolitical Reality

As we enter 2026, the biggest challenge for companies isn’t uncertainty itself; it’s that uncertainty has become permanent.

From the 1990s through the 2010s, the business world operated in a relatively predictable order. There were common rules everyone adhered to for global trade. The US-Europe alliance was stable. Economies progressed through familiar crisis-recovery-growth cycles.

Now these rules of the game are changing — some are disappearing entirely.

According to BCG’s December 2025 report (BCG, 2025a), the fundamental principles that CEOs and policymakers have relied on for years are no longer valid. What’s replacing them? A world where multiple power centers compete instead of a single superpower. Two-thirds of World Economic Forum experts predict this “multipolar” structure will continue until 2050 (WEF, 2025a). This isn’t a temporary situation — it’s the new long-term reality.

Five Shocks in Five Years: The Domino Effect…

The past five years have laid bare this new reality. First, we witnessed supply chains halt during the pandemic, then central banks raised interest rates at record speed to curb soaring inflation. The Russia-Ukraine war shook global energy and food markets. What did we see in 2025? The US made a unilateral move, increasing tariffs sixfold in the last 12 months (BCG, 2025a). Despite diplomatic efforts, the world faces over 60 active conflicts — the highest level since World War II (BCG, 2025a).

While each would be a shock worthy of years of discussion on its own, they’re occurring like dominoes, triggering one another.

This is where we encounter a fascinating paradox: pessimistic expectations and record investments… In the World Economic Forum’s latest survey, 72% of economists expect a slowdown in the global economy (WEF, 2025b). Yet simultaneously, Goldman Sachs forecasts 2.8% global growth (Goldman Sachs, 2025) and companies are investing over $100 billion in artificial intelligence (Deloitte, 2025a). This isn’t risk aversion; it’s preparation for multiple future scenarios.

So how is this happening? Because CEOs are no longer preparing for a single future — they’re planning for multiple scenarios simultaneously. They’re investing for the optimistic scenario while taking out insurance for the pessimistic one.

Reports published by McKinsey, BCG, Deloitte, PwC, and WEF over the last three months paint a common map through this chaotic environment: 2026 will be the year when three major transformations occur simultaneously.

• First: The global balance of power is shifting. New rules are being written between the US, China, Europe, and emerging economies.
• Second: Artificial intelligence is moving from pilot projects to real applications. This means we’re no longer asking “what can AI do?” but rather “what does it add to our bottom line?”
• Third: While some sectors enter a golden age (data centers, senior living facilities, AI infrastructure), others must fundamentally transform (fashion, telecom, traditional real estate).

In this environment, the winners will be companies that don’t view uncertainty merely as “the risk management department’s problem.” As BCG puts it, “geopolitical muscle” — the ability to bring world politics to the strategy table — is now a competitive advantage (BCG, 2025a).

Geopolitical Chess — Either You Make the Move or Pay the Price

“Strategy isn’t about making moves; it’s about anticipating your opponent’s moves.” — Garry Kasparov

As we enter 2026, this statement becomes even more critical. Because the chessboard of world politics is being rearranged, and this time being a pawn is expensive. By expensive, I mean: margins eroding with a tariff decision, inventory losing value with a regulation, or supply being cut overnight with a sanction.

BCG’s geopolitical analyses published in December 2025 (BCG, 2025a) clearly demonstrate that the order determined by a single superpower is now behind us. China currently accounts for 27% of global industrial R&D spending and is the largest trading partner of over 90 countries (BCG, 2025a). This picture shows that the production and trade map has permanently changed.

As the US has increased tariffs sixfold over the past 12 months (BCG, 2025a), new trade agreements also include “move production here” conditions. Walls are replacing rules.

Southern Hemisphere economies, the Global South, will generate 50% of growth by 2030 (Goldman Sachs, 2025) — no longer a backup player, but an actor establishing its own strategy.

Supply Chain: Single Country (Even Single Corridor) = High Risk

In this conjuncture, a supply chain dependent on a single country, or even a single logistics corridor, is a serious vulnerability. As World Trade Organization rules are replaced by bilateral agreements and tariff walls, companies have already turned into tennis spectators constantly switching positions in the tariff match between the US and China.

McKinsey’s recommended multi-hub operation model stands out here (McKinsey, 2025a): spreading production and critical supply across multiple geographies may increase costs, but it significantly reduces the risk of trade disruptions and geopolitical shocks. Friend-shoring locations like India, Mexico, Turkey, and Poland are now serving not just as cost advantages but as geopolitical insurance.

In 2026, competitive advantage won’t lie with the cheapest supplier but with companies that have worked through the most flexible scenarios in advance — and even manage their suppliers’ risks. Those who move geopolitics from the risk department’s agenda to the center of the strategy table will gain an edge.

While the US and China lead the AI race, regional AI power centers are emerging from Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. These countries don’t want to be just technology consumers; they’re trying to build their own large language models (LLMs), their own data sovereignty, and their own chip supply chains. This trend sends a clear message:

AI is no longer just about technology or performance; it’s about sovereignty.

Yesterday geopolitics was “news”; today it’s “operations.” This is why McKinsey and BCG converge on the same point: Stop treating geopolitics as the risk department’s checklist; bring it to your strategy table. Because now where to build the factory, which supplier to work with, where to keep data, which country to hire talent from… Everything depends on the next move.

The chessboard has changed. In 2026, winners will be companies that manage geopolitics not as an “external risk” line in Excel, but within every critical decision.

The wind has changed direction. Those who see geopolitics as “outside weather” will be swept away; those who incorporate it into their operations will move forward. The loser isn’t the one who doesn’t make a move, but the one who fails to renew their move.

AI’s Real Year — From Pilot to Business Processes

“If it can’t be scaled, it’s not a strategy — it’s just a hobby.” — Peter Drucker

The biggest AI story of 2025 wasn’t a new model or a smarter chatbot. The real story is that the vast majority of companies got stuck in the pilot phase.

Deloitte’s November 2025 data paints a clear picture (Deloitte, 2025b): Only 11% of companies using AI are in production. 38% are still piloting, and 42% are still at the strategy development level. In other words, 89% of companies haven’t yet integrated AI into actual business processes. 2026 will be the year this gap closes.

McKinsey’s State of AI 2025 report explains the critical difference (McKinsey, 2025c): High-performing companies redesign workflows 3 times more than others. The problem isn’t technology. The problem is “adding” technology to existing processes. Automating a broken process just makes it broken faster. This is why Gartner’s harsh but realistic prediction isn’t surprising (Deloitte, 2025b): By 2027, 40% of agentic AI projects will be canceled — because they’re trying to automate the wrong processes.

2026’s Real Breakthrough: The Physical World

The real breakthrough of 2026 will be AI moving from screens into the physical world.

Amazon now coordinates 1 million robots with DeepFleet AI, increasing warehouse travel efficiency by 10% (Deloitte, 2025b). In BMW factories, vehicles move autonomously along miles of production lines. As Deloitte puts it (Deloitte, 2025b): “Intelligence is no longer just digital; it’s embodied, autonomous, and solving real problems.” We’re starting to see AI not just as “decision-suggesting” but as an actor that actually does the work.

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AI’s evolution from “trial projects” to companies’ core infrastructure is clearly visible in 2026 figures. According to Deloitte (Deloitte, 2025a), the largest portion of AI workload now comes not from training models but from running trained models in real jobs: in 2026, approximately two-thirds of AI computation will consist of this “inference” process. During the same period, countries are pouring $100 billion-scale investments into “sovereign AI” to keep their data and models within their borders (Deloitte, 2025a). Meanwhile, “agentic AI” assistants that can execute tasks step-by-step autonomously are transforming into a $45 billion market by 2030 (PwC, 2025a); people’s information-seeking habits are also rapidly changing: AI-powered search will be used 3 times more than standalone AI applications (Deloitte, 2025a). This picture points to one thing: AI is no longer an innovation showcase; it’s becoming the engine of business.

AI may not bring the future, but it enables those who are ready to reach the future sooner. In 2026, the question is no longer “Should we use AI?” but “Who put AI at the center of their business first?” And this difference has already begun creating new winners and losers across industries.

Sectoral Renaissance — Winners, Transformers, and New Hybrids

“In times of change, learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists.” — Eric Hoffer

As we enter 2026, sectors aren’t progressing along a single line. Some are entering a golden age, some are being forced into radical transformation to survive; some are blurring sector boundaries entirely. What makes the difference isn’t size or past success, but how prepared you are for structural demand shifts.

Winners: Structural Demand Explosion

For some sectors, this period means a clear opportunity.

Data centers are the most concrete example. They’ve been at the top of investment attractiveness lists in PwC’s Real Estate Outlook report for three years (PwC, 2025b). The reason is simple: Every company needs AI infrastructure, every country wants to control its own data and models. According to McKinsey, global data center capacity will triple by 2030 (McKinsey, 2025d). However, energy constraints and supply chain bottlenecks are limiting supply — demand is strong, supply is limited.

Senior living facilities are riding a similar structural tailwind. In 2026, the oldest baby boomers turn 80 (PwC, 2025b). Occupancy rates are at record levels, new supply is limited. In Turkey too, aging population, changing family structures, and professional care demand are rapidly increasing. This is no longer just “housing”; it’s a new generation lifestyle model where health, quality of life, and technology converge.

Content consumption is also changing form. “Micro-series” designed specifically for smartphones have reached over 500 million viewers worldwide. According to Deloitte, market revenue jumped from $3.8 billion to $7.8 billion in a single year (Deloitte, 2025a) — as attention spans shorten, AI-powered video production accelerates this trend.

Transformers: The Old Model Doesn’t Work

In some sectors, the problem isn’t lack of demand; it’s that the current business model no longer works.

Fashion is a typical example. According to McKinsey’s Fashion 2026 report, nearly half of leading brands expect conditions to worsen (McKinsey, 2025e). Macroeconomic uncertainty, value-oriented consumer behavior, difficulty even in the luxury segment. At this point, AI isn’t a choice but a necessity — workforce transformation, design acceleration, operational efficiency are now fundamental requirements for survival.

Telecommunications may be undergoing the most striking transformation. According to Deloitte’s UK report, two-thirds of customers perceived no difference in network quality over the past year (Deloitte, 2025c). Mobile data consumption growth fell from 41% in 2020 to 10% in 2024. The result? Customers no longer want “faster internet” but experiences and privileges. Network speed has become a commodity; operators are forced to shift to loyalty programs and perk economics.

Traditional real estate struggles with hybrid work, rising costs, and changing office needs. As office investments lose appeal (PwC, 2025b), agile players are finding opportunities through modular construction, long-term rentals, and technology integration.

New Hybrids: Sector Boundaries Blur

In some areas, sector definitions are completely blurring. Storage services are no longer just “storage”; they’re transforming into a hybrid model where investment and lifestyle intersect (PwC, 2025b). Low Earth orbit satellites, with tens of thousands of satellites, millions of subscribers, and billions in revenue, are becoming a serious alternative to traditional telecommunications (Deloitte, 2025a).

Which Category Is Your Sector In?

Winner, transformer, or hybrid — whichever you are, in 2026 your sector may stay the same; but the rules of the game will definitely change.

2026’s Three Questions — The Map Is Here, The Move Is Yours

Over the last three months, McKinsey, BCG, Deloitte, and PwC have painted a common picture: 2026 is the year when three major transformations occur simultaneously. Geopolitical fracture, AI’s exit from the “pilot phase,” sectoral restructuring — all at once.

Uncertainty is permanent. But being unprepared is a choice.

That’s why I’m leaving you with three questions for 2026:

1. Are your geopolitical scenarios ready? Would a new tariff wave disrupt production? Are your suppliers stuck on a single track? Are you monitoring geopolitics as an “external risk,” or have you brought it inside your strategy table?

2. **Are your AI projects in production? **Are you “adding” AI to processes, or redesigning processes from scratch? Do you have concrete metrics measuring success — like cost, speed, quality, customer satisfaction?

3. **Which category is your sector in? **Are you in an area experiencing structural demand growth, or at a transformation threshold where the old model no longer works? Is your competitive advantage in the “cheapest” solution, or in the “most flexible” scenario?

Every “I don’t know” answer means a risk in 2026, and every “not yet” response is a step given to competitors.

Jack Welch’s words find their place here: “Change before you have to.”

Because 2026 won’t come with questions — it’ll come with answers.

Winners won’t be the fastest — they’ll be the most prepared.

References

• BCG. (2025a). The Geopolitical Forces Shaping Business in 2026. Boston Consulting Group.
• Deloitte. (2025a). Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions 2026. Deloitte Global.
• Deloitte. (2025b). Tech Trends 2026: From Potential to Practicality. Deloitte Insights.
• Deloitte. (2025c). TMT Predictions 2026 — Gifts Beat Gigabits. Deloitte UK.
• Goldman Sachs. (2025). Macro Outlook 2026: Sturdy Growth, Stagnant Jobs, Stable Prices. Goldman Sachs Research.
• McKinsey & Company. (2025a). Global Economic Outlook 2026. McKinsey Global Institute.
• McKinsey & Company. (2025c). The State of AI in 2025: Agents, Innovation, and Transformation. QuantumBlack, AI by McKinsey.
• McKinsey & Company. (2025d). Technology Trends Outlook 2025. McKinsey Digital.
• McKinsey & Company. (2025e). The State of Fashion 2026: When the Rules Change. McKinsey & Company.
• PwC. (2025a). 2026 AI Business Predictions. PwC US.
• PwC. (2025b). Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2026. PwC & Urban Land Institute.
• WEF. (2025a). Global Risks Report 2025. World Economic Forum.
• WEF. (2025b). Chief Economists Outlook: September 2025. World Economic Forum.