Youngest Toba eruption

Artist’s impression of early stages of eruption from about 42 km (26 mi) above northern Sumatra

VolcanoToba Supervolcano Datec. 74,000 years ago LocationSumatra, Indonesia 2°41′04″N 98°52′32″E / 2.6845°N 98.8756°E VEI8 ImpactCovered the Indian subcontinent in 5 cm (2.0 in) of ash,[1] volcanic winter may have caused a severe human population bottleneck Deaths(Potentially) almost all of humanity, leaving around 3,000–10,000 humans left on the planet Maps

Lake Toba is the resulting crater lake

The Toba eruption (also called the Toba supereruption and the Youngest Toba eruption) was a supervolcanic eruption that occurred around 74,000 years ago, during the Late Pleistocene,[2] at the site of present-day Lake Toba, in Sumatra, Indonesia. It was the last in a series of at least four caldera-forming eruptions there, the earlier known caldera having formed about 1.2 million years ago.[3] This, the last eruption, had an estimated volcanic explosivity index of 8, making it the largest known explosive volcanic eruption in the Quaternary, and one of the largest known explosive eruptions in the Earth’s history.

Location of Lake Toba shown in red on map

Chronology of the Toba eruption

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The exact date of the eruption is unknown, but the pattern of ash deposits suggests that it occurred during the northern summer because only the summer monsoon could have deposited Toba ashfall in the South China Sea.[4] The eruption lasted perhaps 9 to 14 days.[5] The most recent two high-precision argon–argon datings dated the eruption to 73,880 ± 320[6] and 73,700 ± 300 years ago.[7] Five distinct magma bodies were activated within a few centuries before the eruption.[8][9] The eruption commenced with small and limited air-fall and was directly followed by the main phase of ignimbrite flows.[10] The ignimbrite phase is characterized by low eruption fountain,[11] but co-ignimbrite column developed on top of pyroclastic flows reached a height of 32 km (20 mi).[12] Petrological constraints on sulfur emission yielded a wide range from 1×1013 to 1×1015 g, depending on the existence of separate sulfur gas in the Toba magma chamber.[13][14] The lower end of the estimate is due to the low solubility of sulfur in the magma.[13] Ice core records estimate the sulfur emission on the order of 1×1014 g.[15]

Effects of the eruption

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Bill Rose and Craig Chesner of Michigan Technological University have estimated that the total amount of material released in the eruption was at least 2,800 km3 (670 cu mi)[16]—about 2,000 km3 (480 cu mi) of ignimbrite that flowed over the ground, and approximately 800 km3 (190 cu mi) that fell as ash mostly to the west. However, as more outcrops become available, the most recent estimate of eruptive volume is 3,800 km3 (910 cu mi) dense-rock equivalent (DRE), of which 1,800 km3 (430 cu mi) was deposited as ash fall and 2,000 km3 (480 cu mi) as ignimbrite, making this eruption the largest during the Quaternary period.[17] Previous volume estimates have ranged from 2,000 km3 (480 cu mi)[5] to 6,000 km3 (1,400 cu mi).[18] Inside the caldera, the maximum thickness of pyroclastic flows is over 600 m (2,000 ft).[19] The outflow sheet originally covered an area of 20,000–30,000 km2 (7,700–11,600 sq mi) with thickness nearly 100 m (330 ft), likely reaching into the Indian Ocean and the Straits of Malacca.[10] The air-fall of this eruption blanketed the Indian subcontinent in a layer of 5 cm (2.0 in) ash,[20] the Arabian Sea in 1 mm (0.039 in),[21] the South China Sea in 3.5 cm (1.4 in),[4] and Central Indian Ocean Basin in 10 cm (3.9 in).[22] Its horizon of ashfall covered an area of more than 38,000,000 km2 (15,000,000 sq mi) in 1 cm (0.39 in) or more thickness (~7.5% of the Earth’s surface).[17] In Sub-Saharan Africa, microscopic glass shards from this eruption are also discovered on the south coast of South Africa,[23] in the lowlands of northwest Ethiopia,[24] in Lake Malawi,[25] and in Lake Chala.[26] In South China, Toba tephras is found in Huguangyan Maar Lake.[27]

The subsequent collapse formed a caldera that filled with water, creating Lake Toba. The island in the center of the lake is formed by a resurgent dome.[28]

Climate at the time of the eruption

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Greenland stadial 20 (GS20) is a millennium-long cold event in the north Atlantic ocean that started around the time of the Toba eruption.[29] The timing of the initiation of GS20 is dated to 74.0–74.2 kyr, and the entire event lasted about 1,500 years.[29][30] It is the stadial part of Dansgaard–Oeschger event 20 (DO20), commonly explained by an abrupt reduction in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Weaker AMOC caused warming in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, and this asynchrony is known as bipolar seesaw.[31][32] The start of the GS20 cooling event corresponds to the start of the Antarctic Isotope Maxima 19 (AIM19) warming event.[33] GS20 was associated with iceberg discharges into the North Atlantic, thus it was also named Heinrich stadial 7a.[34] Heinrich events tend to be longer, colder and with weaker AMOC in the Atlantic ocean than other DO stadials.[31] From 74 to 58 kyr, Earth transitioned from interglacial marine isotope stage (MIS) 5 to glacial MIS 4, experiencing cooling and glacial expansion.[35][36] This transition is a part of the Pleistocene interglacial-glacial cycle driven by variations in the Earth’s orbit.[37] Ocean temperatures cooled by 0.9 °C (1.6 °F).[38] Sea level fell 60 m (200 ft).[39] Northern Hemisphere ice sheets embarked on significant expansion and surpassed the extent of the Last Glacial Maximum in eastern Europe, Northeast Asia and the North American Cordillera.[40] Southern Hemisphere glaciation grew to its maximum extent during MIS 4.[41] Australasia, Africa and Europe were characterized by increasingly cold and arid environments.[42][43][44]

Possible climate records of the eruption

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While the Toba eruption occurred in the backdrop of the rapid climate transitions of GS20 and MIS 4, triggered by changes in ocean currents and insolation,[45][29] whether the eruption played any role in accelerating these events is much more heavily debated. South China Sea marine records of climate, sampled at every centennial interval, shows 1 °C (1.8 °F) cooling above the Toba ash layer for a thousand years but the authors concede that it may just be GS20.[46] Arabian Sea marine records confirm that Toba ash occurred after the onset of GS20 but also that GS20 is not colder than GS21 in the records, from which authors conclude that the eruption did not intensify GS20 cooling.[47] Dense sampling of environmental records, at every 6–9-year interval, in Lake Malawi, show no cooling-induced change in lake ecology and in grassy woodlands after the deposition of Toba ash,[25][48] but cooling-forced aridity killed high-elevation afromontane forests.[49] The Lake Malawi studies concluded that the environmental effects of the eruption were mild and limited to less than a decade in East Africa,[48] but these studies are questioned due to sediment mixing which would have diminished the cooling signal.[50] Environmental records from a Middle Stone Age site in Ethiopia, however, show that a severe drought occurred concurrently with the Toba ash layer, which altered early human foraging behaviours.[24]

Toba ash records have not been identified in ice core samples. However, four sulfate events in the ice strata are proposed to represent the deposition of aerosols from the Toba eruption.[51][33][52] One sulfate event at 73.75–74.16 kyr, which has all the characteristics of the Toba eruption, is among the largest sulfate loadings that have ever been identified.[52] In the ice core records, GS20 cooling was already underway by the time of sulfate deposition; however, a 110-year period of accelerated cooling followed this sulfate event. The authors interpret this acceleration as AMOC weakened by the Toba eruption.[15]

The modeled climate effects of the Toba eruption hinges on the mass of sulfurous gases and aerosol microphysical processes. Modeling on an emission of 8.5×1014 g of sulfur, which is 100 times the 1991 Pinatubo sulphur, volcanic winter has a maximum global mean cooling of 3.5 °C (6.3 °F) and returns gradually within the range of natural variability 5 years after the eruption. An initiation of a 1,000-year cold period or ice age is not supported by the model.[53][54] Two other emission scenarios, 1×1014 g and 1×1015 g, were investigated using state-of-art simulations provided by the Community Earth System Model. Maximum global mean cooling was 2.3 °C (4.1 °F) for the lower emission and 4.1 °C (7.4 °F) for the higher emission scenarios. A strong decrease in precipitation occurs in the high emission scenario. Negative temperature anomalies return to less than 1 °C (1.8 °F) within 3 and 6 years for each emission scenario after the eruption.[55] But so far no model can simulate aerosol microphysical processes with sufficient accuracy, empirical constraints from historical eruptions suggest that aerosol size may substantially reduce the magnitude of cooling to less than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), no matter how much sulfur is emitted.[56]

Toba catastrophe theory

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The Toba catastrophe theory holds that the eruption caused a severe global volcanic winter of six to ten years and contributed to a 1,000-year-long cooling episode, resulting in a genetic bottleneck in humans.[57][58] However, some physical evidence disputes the association with the millennium-long cold event and genetic bottleneck, and some consider the theory disproven.[59][49][60][61]

In 1972, an analysis of human hemoglobins found very few variants, and to account for this low frequency of variation, the human population must have been as low as a few thousand until very recently.[62] More genetic studies confirmed an effective population on the order of 10,000 for much of human history.[63][64] Subsequent research on the differences in human mitochondrial DNA sequences dated a rapid growth from a small effective population size of 1,000 to 10,000, sometime between 35 and 65 kyr ago.[65][66][67] Recent research shows the extent of climate change was much smaller than believed by proponents of the theory.[68]

In 1993, science journalist Ann Gibbons posited that population growth was suppressed by the cold climate of the last Pleistocene Ice Age, possibly exacerbated by the Toba super-eruption which at the time was dated to between 73 and 75 kyr near the beginning of glacial period MIS 4.[5][69] The subsequent explosive human expansion was believed to be the result of the end of the ice age.[70] Geologist Michael R. Rampino of New York University and volcanologist Stephen Self of the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa supported her theory.[71] In 1998, anthropologist Stanley H. Ambrose of the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign used coalescence evidence of some genes[72] to hypothesize that the Toba eruption caused a human population crash to only a few thousand surviving individuals, and the subsequent recovery was suppressed by the global glacial condition of MIS 4 until the climate eventually transitioned to the warmer condition of MIS 3 about 60,000 years ago, during which rapid human population expansion occurred.[57]

Possible effects on Homo

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At least two other Homo lineages, H. neanderthalensis and Denisovans, survived the Toba eruption and subsequent MIS 4 ice age, as their latest presence is dated to ca. 40 kyr,[73] and ca. 55 kyr.[74] Other lineages, including H. floresiensis,[75] H. luzonensis,[76] and Penghu 1,[77] may have also survived through the eruption. More recently, reconstructions of human demographic history using whole-genome sequencing[78][79][80] and discoveries of archaeological cultures within the Toba ash layer[81][23][24] add further light to how humans had fared during the eruption and the following GS20 and MIS 4 ice age.[82]

Human demographic history

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Recent analyses apply Markov models to the complete set of genetic material to infer human population history.[83][84] In non-African populations, studies recover a long-term steep decline in numbers starting 200 kyr and reaching the lowest point around 40–60 kyr.[83][78] During this bottleneck non-African populations experienced 5- to 15-fold reduction,[85] with an effective population size of only 1,000–3,000 individuals by 50 kyr, consistent with the earliest mtDNA studies.[78][79][84] This severe non-African contraction is consistent with a founder effect caused by Out-of-Africa dispersal. As a small group with a size of a few thousand people migrated from the African continent into the Near East, the drastic reduction in numbers imprinted on non-African genomic diversity.[78][85][86] Genetic analysis identified 56 selective sweeps related to cold adaptations in non-African populations, of which 31 sweeps occurred during 72–97 kyr. This event of closely timed selections is named the "Arabian Standstill" and may have been caused by the severe cold arid conditions from the onset of MIS 4 and exacerbated by the Toba super-eruption.[87]

African populations experienced a slightly earlier, milder bottleneck and recovered earlier.[84][88] Estimated effective population size based on samples from the Luhya and Maasai people attained their lowest numbers around 70–80 kyr, while those from the Yoruba people reached a nadir around 50 kyr,[84] though the long-term declining trend already started before 200 kyr.[89] The estimated remaining effective population sizes are around 10,000 individuals, larger than the estimated non-African size during their bottleneck.[78][79][80] Unlike the non-African populations, there is no consensus as to the cause of the African bottleneck. Proposed causes include climatic deterioration (from MIS 5, Toba eruption, GS20 and/or MIS 4),[50][86][90] reduction in substructure across African populations, and founder effects from the dispersal within Africa.[86]

Earlier genetic analysis of Alu sequences across the entire human genome has shown that the effective human population size was less than 26,000 at 1.2 million years ago; possible explanations for the low population size of human ancestors may include repeated population crashes or periodic replacement events from competing Homo subspecies.[91] Whole-genome analysis similarly recovers very low African population sizes around 1 million years ago.[79][80][92] This 1 million year old bottleneck is thought to have been caused by severe ice age MIS 22 which marked the mid-Pleistocene climate transition with widespread aridity across Africa.[92][93]

Archaeological studies

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Other research has cast doubt on an association between the Toba Caldera Complex and a genetic bottleneck. For example, ancient stone tools at the Jurreru Valley in southern India (Andhra Pradesh) were found above and below a thick layer of ash from the Toba eruption and were very similar across these layers, suggesting that the dust clouds from the eruption did not wipe out this local population.[94][95][96] However, another site in India, the Middle Son Valley (in Madhya Pradesh), exhibits evidence of a major population decline and it has been suggested that the abundant springs of the Jurreru Valley may have offered its inhabitants unique protection.[97] At the Jurreru Valley in southern India, Middle Paleolithic stone tools below the Toba ash layer are dated by OSL to 77±4 kyr, while the age of stone tools above the ash layer is constrained to be no older than 55 kyr. This age gap is suspected to be due to the removal of post-eruption sediments or decimation of the local population until re-occupation at 55 kyr.[98] Additional archaeological evidence from southern and northern India also suggests a lack of evidence for effects of the eruption on local populations, causing the authors of the study to conclude, "many forms of life survived the supereruption, contrary to other research which has suggested significant animal extinctions and genetic bottlenecks".[99] However, some researchers have questioned the techniques utilized to date artifacts to the period subsequent to the Toba supervolcano.[100] The Toba Catastrophe also coincides with the disappearance of the Skhul and Qafzeh hominins.[101] Evidence from pollen analysis has suggested prolonged deforestation in South Asia, and some researchers have suggested that the Toba eruption may have forced humans to adopt new adaptive strategies, which may have permitted them to replace Neanderthals and "other archaic human species".[102][103]

Genetic bottlenecks in other mammals

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Some evidence indicates population crashes of other animals after the Toba eruption. The populations of the Eastern African chimpanzee,[104] Bornean orangutan,[105] central Indian macaque,[106] gorillas[107] cheetah and tiger,[108] all expanded from very small populations around 70,000–55,000 years ago.[109]

• Early human migrations – Spread of humans from Africa through the world
• Most recent common ancestor – Most recent individual from which all organisms in a group are directly descended
• Late Pleistocene extinctions – Extinction of large animals at the end of the last Ice Age
• Recent African origin of modern humans – Theory of early hominid migration
• Timeline of volcanism on Earth
• Wallace Line – Line separating Asian and Australian fauna

Citations and notes

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1. ^ Petraglia, Michael D.; Ditchfield, Peter; Jones, Sacha; Korisettar, Ravi; Pal, J.N. (2012). "The Toba volcanic super-eruption, environmental change, and hominin occupation history in India over the last 140,000 years". Quaternary International. 258: 119–134. Bibcode:2012QuInt.258..119P. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2011.07.042. ISSN 1040-6182.
2. ^ "Surprisingly, Humanity Survived the Super-volcano 74,000 Years Ago". Haaretz.
3. ^ Stratigraphy of the Toba Tuffs and the evolution of the Toba Caldera Complex, Sumatra, Indonesia
4. ^ a b Bühring, Christian; Sarnthein, Michael (2000). "Toba ash layers in the South China Sea: Evidence of contrasting wind directions during eruption ca. 74 ka: Comment and Reply". Geology. 28 (11): 1056. Bibcode:2000Geo....28.1056B. doi:10.1130/0091-7613(2000)28<1056:talits>2.0.co;2. ISSN 0091-7613.
5. ^ a b c Ninkovich, D.; Sparks, R. S. J.; Ledbetter, M. T. (1978-09-01). "The exceptional magnitude and intensity of the Toba eruption, sumatra: An example of the use of deep-sea tephra layers as a geological tool". Bulletin Volcanologique. 41 (3): 286–298. Bibcode:1978BVol...41..286N. doi:10.1007/BF02597228. ISSN 1432-0819. S2CID 128626019.
6. ^ Storey, Michael; Roberts, Richard G.; Saidin, Mokhtar (2012-11-13). "Astronomically calibrated 40 Ar/ 39 Ar age for the Toba supereruption and global synchronization of late Quaternary records". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109 (46): 18684–18688. Bibcode:2012PNAS..10918684S. doi:10.1073/pnas.1208178109. ISSN 0027-8424. PMC 3503200. PMID 23112159.
7. ^ Mark, Darren F.; Renne, Paul R.; Dymock, Ross C.; Smith, Victoria C.; Simon, Justin I.; Morgan, Leah E.; Staff, Richard A.; Ellis, Ben S.; Pearce, Nicholas J. G. (2017-04-01). "High-precision 40Ar/39Ar dating of pleistocene tuffs and temporal anchoring of the Matuyama-Brunhes boundary". Quaternary Geochronology. 39: 1–23. doi:10.1016/j.quageo.2017.01.002. ISSN 1871-1014.
8. ^ Pearce, Nicholas J.G.; Westgate, John A.; Gualda, Guilherme A.R.; Gatti, Emma; Muhammad, Ros F. (2019-10-14). "Tephra glass chemistry provides storage and discharge details of five magma reservoirs which fed the 75 ka Youngest Toba Tuff eruption, northern Sumatra". Journal of Quaternary Science. 35 (1–2): 256–271. doi:10.1002/jqs.3149. hdl:2160/dba3b012-8369-4dbb-8a89-1102f11e92c3. ISSN 0267-8179.
9. ^ Lubbers, Jordan; Kent, Adam J. R.; de Silva, Shanaka (2024-01-18). "Constraining magma storage conditions of the Toba magmatic system: a plagioclase and amphibole perspective". Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology. 179 (2): 12. Bibcode:2024CoMP..179...12L. doi:10.1007/s00410-023-02089-7. ISSN 0010-7999.
10. ^ a b Chesner, Craig A. (2012). "The Toba Caldera Complex". Quaternary International. 258: 5–18. Bibcode:2012QuInt.258....5C. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2011.09.025. ISSN 1040-6182.
11. ^ CHESNER, C (1998-03-01). "Petrogenesis of the Toba Tuffs, Sumatra, Indonesia". Journal of Petrology. 39 (3): 397–438. doi:10.1093/petrology/39.3.397. ISSN 1460-2415.
12. ^ Woods, Andrew W.; Wohletz, Kenneth (1991). "Dimensions and dynamics of co-ignimbrite eruption columns". Nature. 350 (6315): 225–227. Bibcode:1991Natur.350..225W. doi:10.1038/350225a0. ISSN 1476-4687.
13. ^ a b Chesner, Craig A.; Luhr, James F. (2010-11-30). "A melt inclusion study of the Toba Tuffs, Sumatra, Indonesia". Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 197 (1–4): 259–278. Bibcode:2010JVGR..197..259C. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.06.001.
14. ^ Scaillet, Bruno; Luhr, James F.; Carroll, Michael R. (2003), "Petrological and volcanological constraints on volcanic sulfur emissions to the atmosphere", Volcanism and the Earth’s Atmosphere, Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 139, Washington, D. C.: American Geophysical Union, pp. 11–40, doi:10.1029/139gm02, ISBN 0-87590-998-1{{[citation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Citation "Template:Citation")}}: CS1 maint: work parameter with ISBN (link)
15. ^ a b Lin, Jiamei; Abbott, Peter M.; Sigl, Michael; Steffensen, Jørgen P.; Mulvaney, Robert; Severi, Mirko; Svensson, Anders (2023). "Bipolar ice-core records constrain possible dates and global radiative forcing following the ∼74 ka Toba eruption". Quaternary Science Reviews. 312 108162. Bibcode:2023QSRv..31208162L. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108162. ISSN 0277-3791.
16. ^ "Supersized eruptions are all the rage!". USGS. 28 April 2005.
17. ^ a b Kutterolf, S.; Schindlbeck-Belo, J.C.; Müller, F.; Pank, K.; Lee, H.-Y.; Wang, K.-L.; Schmitt, A.K. (2023). "Revisiting the occurrence and distribution of Indian Ocean Tephra: Quaternary marine Toba ash inventory". Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 441 107879. Bibcode:2023JVGR..44107879K. doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2023.107879.
18. ^ Self, S.; Gouramanis, C.; Storey, M. (2019-12-01). "The Young Toba Tuff (73.9 ka) Magma Body – True Size and the most Extensive and Voluminous Ignimbrite Yet Known?". AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts. 2019: V51H–0141. Bibcode:2019AGUFM.V51H0141S.
19. ^ Chesner, Craig A.; Rose, William I. (1991-06-01). "Stratigraphy of the Toba Tuffs and the evolution of the Toba Caldera Complex, Sumatra, Indonesia". Bulletin of Volcanology. 53 (5): 343–356. Bibcode:1991BVol...53..343C. doi:10.1007/BF00280226. ISSN 1432-0819.
20. ^ Petraglia, Michael D.; Ditchfield, Peter; Jones, Sacha; Korisettar, Ravi; Pal, J.N. (2012). "The Toba volcanic super-eruption, environmental change, and hominin occupation history in India over the last 140,000 years". Quaternary International. 258: 119–134. Bibcode:2012QuInt.258..119P. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2011.07.042. ISSN 1040-6182.
21. ^ Von Rad, Ulrich; Burgath, Klaus-Peter; Pervaz, Muhammad; Schulz, Hartmut (2002). "Discovery of the Toba Ash ( c. 70 ka) in a high-resolution core recovering millennial monsoonal variability off Pakistan". Geological Society, London, Special Publications. 195 (1): 445–461. Bibcode:2002GSLSP.195..445V. doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.2002.195.01.25. ISSN 0305-8719.
22. ^ Pattan, J. N; Shane, Phil; Banakar, V. K (1999-03-01). "New occurrence of Youngest Toba Tuff in abyssal sediments of the Central Indian Basin". Marine Geology. 155 (3): 243–248. Bibcode:1999MGeol.155..243P. doi:10.1016/S0025-3227(98)00160-1. ISSN 0025-3227.
23. ^ a b Smith, Eugene I.; Jacobs, Zenobia; Johnsen, Racheal; Ren, Minghua; Fisher, Erich C.; Oestmo, Simen; Wilkins, Jayne; Harris, Jacob A.; Karkanas, Panagiotis; Fitch, Shelby; Ciravolo, Amber; Keenan, Deborah; Cleghorn, Naomi; Lane, Christine S.; Matthews, Thalassa (2018). "Humans thrived in South Africa through the Toba eruption about 74,000 years ago". Nature. 555 (7697): 511–515. Bibcode:2018Natur.555..511S. doi:10.1038/nature25967. ISSN 1476-4687. PMID 29531318.
24. ^ a b c Kappelman, John; Todd, Lawrence C.; Davis, Christopher A.; Cerling, Thure E.; Feseha, Mulugeta; Getahun, Abebe; Johnsen, Racheal; Kay, Marvin; Kocurek, Gary A.; Nachman, Brett A.; Negash, Agazi; Negash, Tewabe; O’Brien, Kaedan; Pante, Michael; Ren, Minghua (2024). "Adaptive foraging behaviours in the Horn of Africa during Toba supereruption". Nature. 628 (8007): 365–372. Bibcode:2024Natur.628..365K. doi:10.1038/s41586-024-07208-3. ISSN 1476-4687. PMID 38509364.
25. ^ a b Lane, C. S.; Chorn, B. T.; Johnson, T. C. (2013). "Ash from the Toba supereruption in Lake Malawi shows no volcanic winter in East Africa at 75 ka". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 110 (20): 8025–8029. Bibcode:2013PNAS..110.8025L. doi:10.1073/pnas.1301474110. PMC 3657767. PMID 23630269.
26. ^ Baxter, A. J.; Verschuren, D.; Peterse, F.; Miralles, D. G.; Martin-Jones, C. M.; Maitituerdi, A.; Van der Meeren, T.; Van Daele, M.; Lane, C. S.; Haug, G. H.; Olago, D. O.; Sinninghe Damsté, J. S. (2023). "Reversed Holocene temperature–moisture relationship in the Horn of Africa". Nature. 620 (7973): 336–343. Bibcode:[2023Natur.620..336B](https://ui.adsabs.harva